Daily Briefing 2026-06-23
This program provides general macro-market quantitative analysis and educational discussion for a general audience, not for any specific individual. The ETF directional judgments are quantitative model predictions of general market trends and do NOT constitute investment advice, an offer, solicitation, or personalized recommendation under the Ontario Securities Act or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction. Such judgments do not consider any viewer's personal risk tolerance, financial situation, investment objectives, or tax circumstances.
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The most important thing to know today is
What is most noteworthy today is not the minor decline in the major indices. ETF Radar is more focused on: another piece of evidence has been added to the semiconductor theme.
Changes were concentrated compared to yesterday: the energy sector weakened, with VDE shifting from a slightly positive to a slightly negative stance; however, more importantly, the semiconductor remained unchanged and was further reinforced by the supply chain message of 'memory chip shortages persisting.'
Main Theme in Depth: Semiconductor Shortage Not a One-Day Issue
What happened? The latest trigger point was a report stating that 'memory shortages are hard to quickly resolve.' To put it plainly, there are only a few key manufacturers of DRAM and storage chips, and expanding production will take many years. Therefore, this is not a shortfall that can be made up by opening a few more production lines next month.
Why would this affect ETFs? Imagine a scenario where the market suddenly wants to buy tickets, but the cinema has only a few halls and can’t expand quickly enough. Tickets become more valuable. Chips are similar: AI servers, cloud computing, and data centers continue to place orders with demand showing no signs of slowing down; however, supply expansion is lagging, giving manufacturers stronger pricing power. Pricing power means the ability to maintain prices and profits. As a result, earnings expectations for the semiconductor sector are more likely to be revised upwards by the market.
Regarding ETFs, the ETF Radar model is slightly positive towards SMH, with signals being consistent. The rationale isn't just one piece of news but also includes approximately $9 billion in inflows over the past 20 days. In plain terms, this means real money is flowing into this theme. Looking at the tape, SMH has risen by about 17.79% over the last 20 days, moving in line with the broader trend, which can be seen as short-term market validation of this logic.
Another focus is on SOXX. The data points to a positive bias for SOXX, with multiple pieces of evidence moving in the same direction. Its underlying logic mirrors that of SMH, also following the chain of 'AI demand still strong while supply expansion remains slow'. Moreover, SOXX has gained 24.83% over the past 20 days, significantly outperforming SPY's 0.22% gain over the same period. Outperforming the broader market means that funds are more willing to follow this trend in the US equity environment. Of course, it must be acknowledged that such a strong rally has already occurred, and future volatility may not be small, but current readings do not indicate a reversal of the main trend.
Other Actionable ETFs Overview
Additionally, the system is positively inclined towards AIQ, with signals being consistent due to ongoing AI computing power investments and alignment with the semiconductor supply chain. Looking at VGIT, ETF Radar has a negative bias for it, with multiple pieces of evidence pointing in the same direction because of the ECB's hawkish stance. In plain terms, this means the central bank is less likely to cut interest rates, which puts pressure on long-term government bonds and similar duration assets as rates remain higher. Duration can be understood as 'the sensitivity to changes in interest rates over time.' For VDE, model readings have shifted towards a negative bias, with signals being mixed, primarily due to the ceasefire in the Middle East and reduced risk premium in oil prices. In simpler terms, investors no longer need to pay an extra margin for potential risks, as concerns have diminished.
The main trend remains clear today: semiconductors are strong, energy has weakened, and interest rate-sensitive bonds continue to face pressure. ETF Radar is not seeing a broad market rally but rather translates to 'funds continuing to cluster around a few strong themes.' Again, the above is the direction prediction from our system quant model for general markets and does not constitute investment advice for you personally; please consult a licensed investment advisor before investing.