Daily Briefing 2026-06-26
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The most important thing to know today is
The strongest theme in the ETF Radar today is still in semiconductors, not just a stock price rebound but more like the entire supply chain continuing to advance forward.
Compared to yesterday, the main themes remain largely unchanged: finance is still about 'higher rates for longer', and semiconductors are still about 'continued intensification of AI production'. Today's new information mainly confirms the latter with actual company investments.
Mainline Deep Dive: Semiconductors Still Expanding Production
What happened? The trigger was straightforward: SK Hynix plans to raise approximately $29.65 billion through an IPO in the US stock market, to expand production and meet AI chip demand. To put it plainly, this is not just rhetoric; the company is genuinely prepared to invest significant funds to build factories and replenish capacity.
Why does this affect ETFs? Because in the semiconductor industry, supply cannot catch up quickly once demand suddenly increases. Imagine a restaurant that suddenly becomes busy every day; the owner would first raise funds, expand the kitchen, and add equipment. Currently, AI is somewhat in this state. Companies are willing to make large-scale financings, indicating they see orders and demand not just for one or two days but as a longer-term trend. As a result, typically all segments of the supply chain, including equipment, storage, manufacturing, and design, would benefit together.
Regarding ETFs, the ETF Radar Model is slightly positive on SMH, with signals being consistent. In plain terms, this means multiple pieces of evidence point to the semiconductor theme not being broken yet. Today's fundraising news, combined with previous AI capital expenditures, forms a mutual validation that companies are investing in expansion. Looking at the chart, SMH has been rising over the past 20 days, indicating that the short-term market is also aligning with this logic.
[未翻译/untranslated] 另一只更贴近大众熟悉的,是 SOXX。模型读数对 SOXX 也偏正面,多项证据同向。白话说,就是不只一家公司的消息,而是整个行业都在朝同一方向走。今天 SOXX 单日涨幅也比较明显,近 20 天同样走强,这更像“主线继续”,不是突然冒出来的一天行情。 如果说得再白一点,半导体现在的核心不是“便不便宜”,而是“扩产是不是还在发生”。从今天的数据看,这件事还在继续。
Other actionable ETFs overview
Additionally, the data points to a slightly positive outlook for KRE, with evidence being more focused. The reason is still due to the Fed's hawkish stance. In plain terms, this means the Fed wants to keep interest rates higher. Banks earn from the spread between deposits and loans, so higher rates make regional banks relatively better off.
There is also XLF, which the system views positively with more consistent signals, though the short-term price action shows some hesitation. In plain terms, the logic for the financial sector remains intact, but the market has not embraced it as decisively as KRE in recent days.
Add another one, CHPS. ETF Radar shows it as positive with focused evidence, similar to reasons for SMH and SOXX, also benefiting from AI expansion and the East Asian supply chain line. Today's trading performance is validating this direction.
Conclusion
The key point today is that the semiconductor sector has not yet turned, while finance continues to operate around