The most notable thing to review this week is that three forces rose together in the same week: tariffs, interest rates, and geopolitical risk. What ETF Radar saw this week was not a single sector running wild, but capital re-ranking the three items 'inflation, interest rates, and safety'.

Key changes this week

• The tariff topic noticeably heated up, with a flurry of related news that pushed gold and the dollar into tradable main themes.
• The US–Iran conflict continued to ferment, so safe-haven demand has not disappeared and the medium-term view on gold remains biased positive.
• Discussion of US debt issues increased, but the view on long bonds actually weakened: TLT flipped from slightly positive to slightly negative, and IEF moved from neutral to slightly negative.
• The Fed rate cycle returned to being the core driver; rate-sensitive assets like VNQ and IYR turned slightly negative this week.
• The financial sector reversed direction: XLF flipped from slightly negative to slightly positive, driven by the notion that higher rates could lift bank net interest margins. Net interest margin is the spread banks earn by borrowing short and lending long.
• Tech also diverged: SOXX moved from slightly negative to slightly positive, while KWEB went from neutral to slightly negative.
• Newly entered actionable, meaning 'entered a clearly trackable state', are GLD, XLF, FXC, VNQ, UUP, BNO, SLV.
• At the market level, SPY rose 0.48% over the past week and QQQ rose 0.42%, but the main theme this week shifted from 'simply chasing risk' to 'picking directions and beneficiaries'.

Main story 1 this week

Tariffs plus geopolitics push gold back to center stage

This week’s most concentrated theme almost entirely revolved around Trump-era tariff policy. Talk of reshoring manufacturing intensified, reports emerged about possible tariffs on chips, and Canada is also discussing diversification strategies under a US trade war. On the other side, the US–Iran conflict has not cooled, and expectations of sanctions and retaliation continue to keep markets on edge. On top of that, US debt issues have been repeatedly raised, so safe-haven assets naturally came back into focus.

Why does this affect ETFs? Plainly put, when markets worry about trade friction, war, or fiscal strain, the first move is usually not to rush into growth stocks, but to find assets that are 'less likely to suffer at the same time if something happens.' Gold is often treated as such a safe harbor. 'Safe haven' means that when markets fear uncertainty, they park some money in places that can better weather the storm.

First look at GLD. Last week GLD actually fell by 3.44%. ETF Radar, however, views GLD as biased positive for the next 1 to 3 months, with relatively consistent signals. There is an obvious divergence here: price fell last week, but the model looks at the next 1 to 3 months—the reasoning is that a short-term pullback does not equal the end of the medium-term thesis. Over the past 1 month GLD has still risen 10.03%, indicating the medium-term tape—that is, the price trajectory—continues to validate this line. The readings supporting it are mainly threefold: First, real rates have declined. Real rates, meaning nominal rates minus inflation, fall, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Second, fund flows turned to net inflows. 'Flows' refer to people entering or exiting fund shares; net inflows mean actual money is flowing in. Third, positioning remains on the long side. 'Positioning' refers to the directional exposure in futures and funds, indicating many market participants are still willing to bet on gold.

Next look at IAU. Last week IAU actually fell by 3.46%. Looking forward, ETF Radar’s model also views IAU as biased positive, with relatively consistent signals. IAU and GLD are essentially both gold ETFs, just with different product wrappers. The short-term pullback is similar, but over the past 1 month IAU still rose 10.00%, so the medium-term trend is intact. The quantitative evidence supporting it is similar to GLD: falling real rates, inflows, and the safe-haven theme being reinforced by new events.

Next look at SLV. Last week SLV actually fell by 4.29%. ETF Radar views SLV as leaning positive for the next 1 to 3 months, with signals ranging from neutral to moderately strong. Like gold, silver pulled back more sharply in the short term, creating a divergence with the forward view. The reason is straightforward: silver typically has greater volatility than gold and often falls deeper during pullbacks. Over the past 1 month SLV still rose 14.65%, indicating the broad direction is still upward for now. Readings supporting it include: First, net long silver positions expanded. 'Net long' means bullish positions minus bearish positions, leaving a net long scale. Second, fund flows show net inflows. Third, falling real rates continue to help precious metals. One caveat: the system notes some portion of the upside may already be priced in. 'Priced in' means the market has already reflected some of the good news, so subsequent moves may not follow the same trajectory as at the start.

The part of this main theme most relevant to ordinary investors is: this week the market wasn’t talking about 'the economy being especially strong' or 'tech being especially strong,' but about re-pricing uncertainty. As long as tariffs, conflict, and fiscal anxiety persist, the gold theme is unlikely to easily leave the spotlight.

Main story 2 this week

Rising rate expectations pressure long bonds and real estate

The second clearest main line is that the market has started to take 'higher rates lasting longer' seriously again. Employment data were revised down and economic discussions got more complex, but in the prediction market the probability of another rate hike in 2026 rose to about 0.63. Coupled with the Fed’s four-week net liquidity continuing to retract, rate- and real-estate-sensitive assets began to come under pressure.

Net liquidity can be understood as whether the money available in the financial system is increasing or decreasing. When money tightens, valuations typically get pressured, especially for rate-sensitive assets. 'Rate-sensitive' means assets that are particularly vulnerable to rate changes.

First look at VNQ. Last week VNQ actually fell by 1.27%. ETF Radar sees VNQ as biased negative for the next 1 to 3 months, with relatively consistent signals. Over the past 1 month VNQ also fell 1.72%, which shows price is already validating that view. Why are real-estate ETFs easily hurt? Very simply: when rates rise, financing costs get more expensive and future rents and cash flows, when discounted back, are worth less. 'Discounting' means converting future earnings into present value using today’s interest rate. Evidence supporting the negative bias includes three items: First, the probability of another rate hike rose. Second, the Fed’s four-week net liquidity decreased by about 45 billion dollars. Third, price action itself has weakened over the past 1 month, aligning with the fundamental logic.

Next look at IYR. Last week IYR actually fell by 1.26%. Looking ahead, ETF Radar’s model sees IYR as biased negative, with signals generally on the stronger side. Over the past 1 month IYR fell 1.60%, likewise validating the stance. Supporting readings beyond rate expectations include: One, 30-day cumulative net outflows, indicating capital is not willing to actively buy back this asset class. Two, short positions increased. 'Short positions' are bets on price declines.

Next look at TLT. Last week TLT actually rose by 1.01%. ETF Radar, however, views TLT as biased negative for the next 1 to 3 months, with a neutral signal. Here is a divergence: long bonds rose last week, but the model remains negative. The reason is the model focuses on rates and liquidity pressure over the coming months; that small rebound last week has not changed the main logic. More importantly, TLT only rose 0.76% over the past 1 month, which is not strong. Evidence supporting the negative bias includes: First, the market-implied federal funds path has moved up. 'Implied path' refers to the future rate path inferred from market prices. Second, net short positions in 30-year Treasuries are very high. Third, rising discussion about US debt can also exert upward pressure on long-term rates.

A quick look at IEF. Last week IEF actually only rose by 0.04%. Looking forward, data point to IEF being biased negative, with relatively consistent signals. Over the past 1 month IEF is -0.10%; though the magnitude is small, the direction is already weak. It represents medium-term Treasuries and has longer duration than short-term bonds, so it also fears rising rates. 'Duration' can be roughly understood as how sensitive a bond’s price is to rate changes—the longer the duration, the larger the typical move.

The implication of this main line is straightforward: as long as the market continues to price 'higher rates,' long bonds and real estate will repeatedly be under pressure. Occasional short-term rebounds do not mean the medium-term pressure is gone.

Main story 3 this week

Banks and the dollar have become 'higher-rate beneficiaries'

The third line can be seen as an extension of the previous one. Rising rate expectations not only hurt real estate and long bonds, they also benefit certain assets—most typically banks and the dollar.

First look at XLF. Last week XLF actually rose by 1.06%. ETF Radar views XLF as biased positive for the next 1 to 3 months, with relatively consistent signals. Over the past 1 month XLF rose 2.02%, so price has already started to validate this. Evidence supporting it includes: First, the probability of another rate hike rose from about 0.51 to 0.63. Second, credit spreads narrowed over the past five days. Credit spread is the difference between corporate borrowing rates and Treasury yields; narrowing means the market is less worried about credit risk. Third, higher short-term yields are favorable for bank net interest margins. Net interest margin is the difference between the interest banks collect and what they pay.

Next look at UUP. Last week UUP actually rose by 1.00%. Looking forward, ETF Radar models UUP as biased positive, with signals generally moderately strong. Over the past 1 month UUP only rose 0.04%, indicating this line is still in early stages and not fully realized. Readings supporting it mainly are: First, tariffs could raise import prices and push up inflation expectations. Second, the level of US 2-year and 10-year yields still supports the dollar yield differentials. 'Yield differential' is the difference in interest rates between assets or countries. Third, the market-implied rate path is on the higher side. There are restraints: UUP has experienced persistent net outflows previously, so while the view has turned positive it is not as concentrated as gold.

Put more plainly: the same 'higher rates' theme produces losers and winners. This week the market began to more clearly distinguish who is hurt by rates and who benefits.

Watchlist for next week

• Continue to watch for new tariff-related statements. Many of ETF Radar’s strongest recent changes spread from here, especially affecting gold, the dollar, and semiconductors.
• Continue to watch for new evidence on the Fed rate cycle, focusing on the probability of another hike and whether net liquidity continues to tighten.
• Continue to watch developments in the US–Iran conflict and sanctions, which will directly affect gold and indirectly affect oil-related themes.

This week’s main lines can be summarized in one sentence: the market has begun to put tariffs, geopolitics, and higher rates into the same pricing framework, so gold is relatively strong, long bonds and real estate are under pressure, and banks and the dollar relatively benefit—these are the three clearest lines in ETF Radar’s view right now. A reminder: the above are directional forecasts for general markets from the system’s quantitative model and do not constitute personalized investment advice; consult a licensed financial advisor before investing.