AGG iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF
Bearish lean Confidence 0.64 Regime Low-vol · at high
Maintain a medium-term lean negative stance on AGG. The primary driver comes from Arc 140 (ECB interest rate path) and Arc 114 (Fed/US Treasury rates): multiple non-price quantitative data indicate an upward trend in nominal yields for the short to medium end over the past 20 days (multiple 20-day increases of approximately +15–24bp), with a term premium maintained at around 1.07%, creating structural downward pressure on duration exposure. Note that most arcs are marked with price_in=True, and AGG shows net redemptions along with higher short interest (days-to-cover ≈1.86), indicating that some rate shocks have been absorbed by prices or liquidity, limiting immediate repositioning space. Therefore, maintain a lean negative stance but proceed cautiously in steps.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Bearish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a medium-term lean negative stance on AGG. The primary driver comes from Arc 140 (ECB interest rate path) and Arc 114 (Fed/US Treasury rates): multiple non-price quantitative data indicate an upward trend in nominal yields for the short to medium end over the past 20 days (multiple 20-day increases of approximately +15–24bp), with a term premium maintained at around 1.07%, creating structural downward pressure on duration exposure. Note that most arcs are marked with price_in=True, and AGG shows net redemptions along with higher short interest (days-to-cover ≈1.86), indicating that some rate shocks have been absorbed by prices or liquidity, limiting immediate repositioning space. Therefore, maintain a lean negative stance but proceed cautiously in steps. |
| 2026-10-14 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a medium-term bearish stance on AGG (lean_negative). The drivers come from non-price evidence: Arc 140 (ECB interest rate path) and Arc 114 (Fed/Treasury rates with term premium) indicate that nominal yields and term premiums remain high, rising by about 20 days recently (term_premium ≈ 1.08%, 20d yield increase), which represents a structural downward pressure on duration exposure. It should be noted that the price end has been partially factored in (price_in=True), and recent net redemptions, a decline in MOVE, and accumulated short positions (days-to-cover ≈ 1.86) constitute a short-term buffer or potential squeeze risk. Suggest phased and cautious execution of long positions. |
| 2026-10-13 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Judging based on non-price evidence: Arc 140 (ECB interest rate path) and Arc 114 (Fed/Treasury rates and upward term premium) policy and term premium signals constitute a structurally downward driver for duration exposure, supporting a cautiously bearish stance on AGG. It should be noted that Arc 140 is marked as price_in (partially priced in at the price end), with net inflows over the past 30 days, declining MOVE, and rapid accumulation of short positions increasing the risk of a squeeze or cushioning. Therefore, while acknowledging policy/yield non-price drivers, confidence is moderately reduced and a phased/cautious approach to positioning is recommended. |
| 2026-10-12 | Bearish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a bearish stance on AGG: primarily driven by arc 140 (the ECB's recent hawkish statements and evidence of inflation in the eurozone, forming a non-price causal chain that lifts interest rates from a policy perspective) and arc 114 (the sustained upward trend in long-term US Treasury yields and term premiums, directly increasing duration discounting pressure). Both are confirmatory signals over the past few days. It should be noted that both dominant arcs are marked with price_in (indicating that some downward movements have already been factored into the market), and net redemptions, a decline in MOVE, and high short positions constitute substantial downside buffers. Therefore, while acknowledging the negative impact from policy and yields, we moderately lower our confidence level. Overall, we lean negative based on the non-price chains of policy and yields/term premiums, but given that some factors are already priced in and there are funding/volatility buffers, we maintain a high-medium confidence level. |
| 2026-10-11 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a bearish stance on AGG: primarily driven by arc 140 (the ECB's recent hawkish statements and persistent inflation in the eurozone: forming a non-price chain that lifts interest rates) and arc 114 (rising nominal long-term US Treasury yields and term premiums: directly increasing duration discounting pressure). Both are confirmatory signals within the last day, with consistent directions. Note that both dominant arcs are marked price_in (indicating that some downward movements have been factored into the market), and net redemptions over the past 30 days, a declining MOVE, and high short positions provide substantial cushion for downside, thus moderately lowering confidence but still maintaining a moderate to high level. |
| 2026-10-10 | Bearish lean | 0.68 | Maintain a bearish stance on AGG, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 140 (ECB: persistent high eurozone CPI and recent hawkish statements contributing to an upward shift in interest rates through non-price mechanisms) and arc 114 (high levels of nominal long-term US Treasury yields and term premiums pushing up duration discounting). Notable limiting factors include both bear arcs being marked with price_in (indicating that some downside has been absorbed by the market), net inflows over the past 30 days (+1.53% AUM), a decline in MOVE, and an increase in high-level short positions (mitigating the risk of a squeeze). This results in a moderate reduction in confidence. The main influencing arcs are 140 and 114 (with secondary support from arc 487), and direction will not be altered until new counter-non-price evidence emerges. |
| 2026-10-09 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Based on a comprehensive judgment centered on non-price evidence: driven by arc 114 (US nominal long-term interest rates and term premiums remain at high levels, with 30y ≈ 5.46% / 10y ≈ 5.28%, providing a structurally higher discount rate for duration assets) and arc 140 (Eurozone CPI sets new highs, reinforcing the ECB's bias towards tightening and the transmission to term premiums), it supports a bearish outlook on AGG over the next 1-3 months. It is important to note that multiple arcs are marked with price_in=True and the fund has experienced short-term net inflows (which provide some cushion against downside). Therefore, while the direction is clear, the downward movement has already partially been absorbed by prices and flows, leading to a moderate level of confidence. |
| 2026-10-08 | Bearish lean | 0.63 | Based on a comprehensive judgment centered on non-price evidence: primarily driven by arc 140 (Eurozone CPI hits new highs, excess_sigma=+1.16, indicating ECB bias towards hawkishness and pushing up long-term rates/term premium) and arc 114 (US long-term interest rates and term premiums at high levels, creating a structural upward pressure on discount rates for duration assets), this supports a bearish view on AGG in the medium term. The positive macro signals from arc 224 also reinforce the chain of 'central bank tightening -> downward pressure on long-term rates'. However, it should be noted that multiple arcs (including 140/114/224) have price_in=True annotations, and non-price evidence such as recent net redemptions, normal auction coverages, and MOVE not significantly rising indicates that the downside has been partially absorbed or constrained. Therefore, while acknowledging the directionality, confidence is moderated with a degree of caution. |
| 2026-10-07 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a lean negative stance on AGG. Main drivers come from arc 114 (Fed/Treasury: long-end rates and term premium are at high levels, with 10Y ~5.3% and term premium ~1.02%, creating structural upward pressure on duration) and arc 140 (unexpected rise in Eurozone CPI, increasing the probability of an ECB hawkish bias), reinforced by recent arc 224 (positive macro signals from Canada/policy tightening). This collectively forms a non-price causal chain of 'inflation/central bank hawkishness -> higher discount rates -> pressure on duration'. Note that most negative arcs are marked with price_in=True and have seen net redemptions/recovery from oversold conditions recently, limiting further downside. Additionally, some arcs are in a decaying or controversial state (such as arc 487/155), so set the confidence level to moderately high. |
| 2026-10-06 | Bearish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a lean-negative stance on AGG. The primary reason is the presence of several new, actionable arcs—particularly arc 114 (Fed/US Treasury: 10Y~5.28%, term premium~1.02%, MOVE rising) and arc 140 (unexpectedly high Eurozone CPI -> tighter monetary path)—which provide non-price quantitative evidence supporting the causal chain of 'inflation/money bias hawkish -> discount rate rise -> pressure on duration assets.' This supports a negative outlook for 1-3 months. It is noted that multiple arcs have been marked with price_in_excess=True and recent net redemptions/RSI oversold, indicating that some of the downside has already been priced in and limiting short-term one-way potential. Therefore, confidence is moderately reduced to 0.64 (arc 487 provides secondary support, arc 155 is weakening, and arc 224 is an initial confirmation) while ensuring it remains at least 0.60. |
| 2026-10-05 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a bearish stance on AGG, primarily driven by non-price quantitative evidence from arcs 114 (Fed/US Treasury long end and term premium structurally higher: 10Y≈5.24%, term_premium≈1.02%, MOVE up) and 140 (unexpectedly high Eurozone CPI signaling a tighter monetary path). Arc 487 (BoE/inflation rise) provides secondary support; arc 155 (BoJ/yen normalization) is currently in decline and has not provided corresponding non-price transmission, so it does not alter the bearish conclusion. It should be noted that multiple arcs are marked with price_in_excess=True and AGG has seen net inflows over the past 30 days, indicating some of the downside has already been priced in—this leads to a moderate reduction in confidence, but given that arc 114 is very new and the quantitative evidence confirms it, confidence remains at a mid-high level. |
| 2026-10-04 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bearish stance on AGG, primarily driven by non-price quantitative evidence from arcs 140 (ECB eurozone inflation rise triggering) and arc 114 (Fed rate/term premium structurally high): unexpected upward movement in eurozone CPI (arc 140, surprise σ≈+1.2) and elevated long-term yields with term premiums at high levels (10Y≈5.24%, term_premium≈1.02%, MOVE≈107), which continue to exert upward pressure on discount rates for duration assets. Arc 487 (BoE/UK GDP strong) serves as secondary support pointing towards global interest rate transmission. It should be noted that multiple arcs are marked with price_in_excess=True, and AGG has seen net inflows over the past 30 days (≈+0.84% AUM), indicating that some of the downside risk has been priced in and limiting execution space, thus slightly reducing confidence in the bearish conclusion. |
| 2026-10-03 | Bearish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a bearish view on AGG, primarily driven by non-price quantitative evidence from arcs 114 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and arc 140 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle): nominal/real long-term interest rates and term premiums are at high levels (10Y ≈ 5.24%, term premium ≈ 1.02%) with MOVE ≈ 107, posing a persistent upward risk to discount rates for duration assets. Multiple recent arcs (114/140/487) are operational or confirmed within seven days and excess_sigma supports the same direction, enhancing confidence in the same direction; however, it should be noted that these arcs are also marked with price_in_excess=True, and AGG has robust net inflows (30d ≈ +0.84% AUM), indicating that some of the downside has been absorbed by prices and liquidity, thus moderately limiting confidence. |
| 2026-10-02 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a lean negative stance on AGG. Driven primarily by arcs 114 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and 140 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle): non-price quantitative evidence—10Y yield ≈ 5.29%, term premium ≈ 1.02%, and MOVE ≈ 108—indicates higher discount rates and duration risk, with rising eurozone inflation reinforcing the ECB’s hawkish scenario chain, thus supporting the bearish argument. It should be noted that arcs 114/140 are marked with price_in_excess=True (indicating that part of the expectation has already been reflected in prices), and passive fund net inflows reported by arcs 155/532 along with normal demand for government bond auctions provide some support at the lower end, thereby moderately lowering confidence to a moderate level. |
| 2026-10-01 | Bearish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a lean negative stance on AGG. Driven by arcs 114 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and arc 140 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle): non-price evidence shows that long-term interest rates remain high (10Y ≈5.2%), term premiums are rising (≈0.96–1.02%), while MOVE and option IV/put-call skew have significantly increased, forming a structural causal chain of |
| 2026-09-30 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a lean negative stance on AGG. Driven by arc 114 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and non-price evidence from arc 140: long-term interest rates remain high (10Y ≈5.18–5.24%), term premium is close to or above ~0.96–1.02%, and MOVE and option IV/put-call skew have significantly increased, forming a structural causal chain of |
| 2026-09-29 | Bearish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a lean negative stance on AGG. Drivers include arc 114 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and non-price evidence from arc 140: long-term rates remain high (10Y≈5.18%), with term premium ≈0.96%, and both MOVE and option IV/put-call skew have risen significantly, forming a structural causal chain of |
| 2026-09-27 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a lean negative stance on AGG. Driven by non-price evidence from arcs 114 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and arc 140 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle): the 10Y yield at around 5.1%, term premium ≈0.96%, and elevated MOVE/option IV, forming a structural logic of 'interest rate/term premium rise -> duration pressure'. It is noted that arcs 114/140 are marked with price_in=True and have seen positive net redemptions in the past 30 days, with short positions declining. Additionally, most of the three arcs are decaying (with arc 487 being relatively new but with low confidence), indicating that some of the decline has already been absorbed by the market. Therefore, a lean negative stance is maintained with translated as 'moderately lowering confidence'. |
| 2026-09-26 | Bearish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a lean_negative stance on AGG. Non-price evidence centered around arc 114 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and arc 140 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle)—a 10Y yield of approximately 5.1%, term premium ≈0.96%, elevated MOVE/option IV, and revised upward short-end interest rate path—constitutes a structural causal chain of 'interest rates rising/term premium increasing -> duration pressure,' supporting the bearish view. The consistency in direction across multiple arcs strengthens this judgment, but most arcs are marked with price_in=True and have seen net redemptions recently, indicating that some of the downward pressure has already been priced in, thus depressing confidence to a moderate level (0.58). |
| 2026-09-25 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Non-price evidence led by arc 114 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) indicates an implied short-term interest rate path of around 4.05%, with the 10Y yield and term premium at high levels (term_premium≈0.96), and a significant rise in MOVE volatility – forming a causal chain of 'rate hike -> duration pressure', supporting a bearish view on AGG. Arcs 140 (ECB) and arc 532 (RBA) provide reinforcing signals in the same direction, making the bearish perspective more convincing from a structural standpoint. It is worth noting that several arcs with price_in=True and positive net redemptions over the past 30 days indicate that some of the decline has already been priced into the market, limiting further downside potential and thus moderately suppressing confidence. |
| 2026-09-24 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bearish view on AGG. The primary basis comes from non-price evidence of arcs 114 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and arc 140 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle): market-implied short-term interest rate path ≈4.02–4.06%, 10Y ≈4.96%, and term premium ≈0.96%. These causal chains (policy expectations -> term premium/nominal rates up -> downward pressure on duration assets) provide structural reasons for the bearish stance; arc 532 is a recent supportive signal but remains nascent. It should be noted that multiple arcs are marked with price_in=True and there has been positive net redemptions over the past 30 days, along with accumulation of short positions and increased IV/put-skew in options, which increase the risk of covering or squeeze and indicate that some downside is already priced in. Therefore, while maintaining a bearish conclusion, confidence is moderately reduced. The previous conclusion direction remains unchanged (no single arc has generated a directional reversal). |
| 2026-09-23 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Based on the non-price evidence from arcs 114 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) and arc 140 (ECB Eurozone Rate Cycle): the implied interest rate path and term premium remain elevated (fed_path≈4.02%, term_premium≈0.96%, 10Y≈4.9%), which constitute a structural upward pressure on long-duration assets. Therefore, we maintain a negative bias for AGG over the 1-3 month horizon. It should be noted that both leading arcs are marked with price_in (indicating that some of the downward movement has already been priced in), and fund flows into low-volatility conditions (MOVE/IV at low levels) along with crowded short positions limit the potential for further short-term downside. Other bullish or controversial arcs, such as arc 532 and 155, currently have low weights or unconfirmed signals and cannot reverse the dominant transmission chain. |
| 2026-09-21 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Continue to be bearish on AGG over a 1-3 month horizon, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arcs 140 (ECB hawkish path) and arc 114 (Fed rate path to 2026): nominal long-term yields are at high levels (10Y≈4.94%), term premium ≈0.96%, and the implied interest rate path from futures is close to 3.9-4.03%, which creates structural upward pressure on duration. Note that arc 140 has been marked as price_in (price_in_excess=True), and the market shows net redemptions over 30 days, low MOVE/IV levels, and crowded short positions, indicating that some downside is already priced in and limits further downward momentum, thus lowering confidence moderately. Given the recent addition of multiple co-directional arcs (140, 114) reinforcing the directionality but with structural market resistance present, maintain a bearish stance and advise caution on position sizing and stop losses. |
| 2026-09-20 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Continue to be bearish on AGG over a 1-3 month horizon. The driving forces come from arc 140 (ECB's hawkish path) and arc 114 (Fed's rate path through 2026) in non-price quantitative evidence: long-term rates and term premium remain in elevated ranges (10Y ~4.9-5.0%, term_premium ~0.96%, implied Fed ~4.025), creating structural upward yield pressure on duration. Note that two main driving arcs are marked as price_in=True within this window (indicating some downside has been priced in), and near-month net redemptions are net inflows, with MOVE/IV at low percentiles and crowded short positions limiting downward momentum. Therefore, confidence should not be overly high due to these market structure factors. |
| 2026-09-19 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Continue to be bearish on AGG in the 1-3 month horizon, driven by non-price quantitative evidence from arcs 140 (ECB hawkish path) and arc 114 (Fed rate path to 2026): a 10Y yield of approximately 5%, a real 10Y yield of approximately 2.6-2.7%, term premium of approximately 0.96%, and implied front-end rates from futures (fed_path ≈4.0/3.75%) create structural upward yield pressure on duration, supporting the short position. It should be noted that both main driving arcs are recent and actionable, with excess_sigma moving in the same direction, but they are marked as price_in=True (possibly already partially priced in). The market structure/funding conditions (strong demand at five recent Treasury auctions, net redemptions of +$365M for AGG since 9/11, a net inflow of +0.97% over the last 30 days, low MOVE and IV percentiles, and high short-side overcrowding) will provide short-term buffering or create a squeeze risk, thus maintaining confidence at a medium-high level rather than over-leveraging. |
| 2026-09-18 | Bearish lean | 0.68 | Continue to be bearish on AGG in the 1-3 month horizon. The primary non-price quantitative evidence driving this is provided by arcs 140 (ECB hawkish path) and arc 114 (Fed rate path to 2026): a 10Y yield of approximately 5%, term premium of about 0.96%, and a tighter implied futures interest rate curve, which constitute structural upward pressure on duration. Both arcs are in the same direction and actionable (days_since_event <= 7) with excess_sigma moving in the same direction, reinforcing the bearish logic; however, both arcs are marked as price_in = True, and strong demand for government bond auctions, along with AGG's net inflows over the past 30 days and low MOVE/low IV percentiles, may create short-term buffers or squeezes, thus lowering confidence and maintaining positions/tail protection. |
| 2026-09-17 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Continue to be bearish on AGG (1-3 months), primarily driven by non-price quantitative evidence from arcs 140 (ECB's hawkish path in the eurozone) and arc 114 (Fed's rate path through 2026): nominal and real interest rates remain high (10Y ≈5%), term premiums are close to 0.9-1.0, and implied futures rates are tight, creating structural upward pressure on duration. Note that prices have partially factored in (the two main bearish chains are marked with price_in), and strong demand at Treasury auctions and net inflows for AGG (reported by arcs 195/155) will provide some cushion against declines and lower confidence. Therefore, maintain a bearish stance but control position size and tail risks in the current risk/interest rate environment. |
| 2026-09-16 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Continue to be bearish on AGG (1-3 months), primarily driven by non-price quantitative evidence from arcs 140 (ECB/Eurozone interest rate cycle) and arc 114 (Fed 2026 rate path): nominal and real rates are at high levels (10Y ≈ 4.95–4.97%), term premiums are around 0.89–0.96%, and the implied rate path from futures suggests continued tightening, which constitutes structural upward pressure on duration. Note that two main bearish chains have been price_in annotated (price_in_excess=True) in this round, and strong demand at Treasury auctions and net inflows for AGG net redemptions (reported by arcs 195/155) partially offset downward pressure. Therefore, the confidence level is moderate to high (0.66) rather than high. The counter-evidence from arc 195 is weakening, and the support provided by JGB/pound arcs 155/487 is limited and insufficient to reverse direction. |
| 2026-09-15 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Continue to be bearish on AGG, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arcs 140 (ECB/Eurozone interest rate cycle) and arc 114 (Fed 2026 rate path): nominal and real rates are at high levels (10Y ≈ 4.95%), term premium ≈ 0.889%, implied higher Fed-funds rate from futures, and the resilience of core CPI this month collectively exert structural pressure on duration. It should be noted that these two main bearish indicators are also marked by price_in (arc 140/114 price_in_excess=True), indicating that some of the negative factors have already been absorbed by prices. Additionally, strong demand in Treasury auctions and net redemption inflows (reported by arc 195/155) provide support on the demand side, reducing the certainty of extreme bearish positions. Overall, recent hawkish/inflation signals make me maintain a bearish stance, but given that they are partially priced in and supported by clear liquidity conditions, confidence is |
| 2026-09-14 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a medium-term bearish stance on AGG, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 140: nominal and real long-term rates remain high (10Y ≈ 4.95%, 10Y real ≈ 2.55%), term premiums are elevated, and the implied higher Fed-funds rate path from futures combined with core CPI resilience create structural pressure on duration. Arc 140 serves as a recent actionable signal (days_since_event ≈ 0.2, excess_sigma +0.78), reinforcing the case for short-term bearishness; however, it should be noted that arcs 114 and 195 have price_in_excess=True, indicating that some of the negative factors have already been absorbed by prices. Additionally, upcoming Treasury auctions and near-month net redemptions provide demand-side support. Therefore, confidence remains medium to high but not aggressive. In summary: a bearish stance is justified, but given that prices have partially reflected this and there are funding buffers, it is advisable to prudently manage duration exposure while reserving the option to add positions after events. |