GLD SPDR Gold Shares
Bullish lean Confidence 0.63 Regime Mid-vol · at high
Maintain a mild bullish stance on GLD. Driven by non-price evidence from arcs 75 (US-Iran), arc 526 (clean_energy_transition), and arc 529 (NATO/EU defense): CFTC COT net longs have risen to approximately +141,648 contracts, and GLD has seen substantial net creations/subscriptions totaling about +$4.53B (≈+2.9% AUM) since 2026-08-10, directly reflecting genuine allocations and speculative positioning. However, note that multiple arcs indicate price_in=True, with option IV at a historical percentile of ≈96%, RSI at ≈71, and increased trading volume signaling risks of crowding and short-term retracement. This suggests some gains have already been priced in, so it is advisable to build positions gradually and under control with strict risk management.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Bullish lean | 0.63 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on GLD. Driven by non-price evidence from arcs 75 (US-Iran), arc 526 (clean_energy_transition), and arc 529 (NATO/EU defense): CFTC COT net longs have risen to approximately +141,648 contracts, and GLD has seen substantial net creations/subscriptions totaling about +$4.53B (≈+2.9% AUM) since 2026-08-10, directly reflecting genuine allocations and speculative positioning. However, note that multiple arcs indicate price_in=True, with option IV at a historical percentile of ≈96%, RSI at ≈71, and increased trading volume signaling risks of crowding and short-term retracement. This suggests some gains have already been priced in, so it is advisable to build positions gradually and under control with strict risk management. |
| 2026-08-23 | Bullish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on GLD. Mainly driven by non-price evidence from arcs 75 / arc 526 / arc 529: CFTC COT net longs have risen to high levels (latest +141,648 contracts), and since August 3, 2026, GLD has seen a real net creation of approximately +$2,015M, indicating substantial allocation and hedging buying. Note that multiple arcs are marked with price_in=True, and the option IV (around the 96th percentile), RSI≈71, and crowdedness metrics near MA50 suggest some of the gains may already be priced in. Therefore, it is advised to build positions gradually in limited sizes with strict risk management, which moderately dampens confidence. |
| 2026-08-22 | Bullish lean | 0.65 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on GLD. Mainly driven by non-price evidence from arc 529 / arc 75 / arc 526: CFTC COT net longs have risen to high levels (latest +141,648 contracts) and real net creations in GLD since 2026-08-03 amount to approximately +$2,015M, indicating actual allocation/hedging demand. It is important to note that multiple arcs (including 529, 526, 170) are marked with price_in=True, and indicators such as option IV, RSI, and crowding near the MA50 suggest rising protective/overbought premiums, indicating some of the gains may already be reflected in prices. It is advised to build positions gradually on a limited scale and strictly manage risk. |
| 2026-08-21 | Bullish lean | 0.65 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on GLD. The rationale is based on non-price evidence: arc 75 (US-Iran incident) and arc 529 (NATO/EU defense/geopolitical) provide independent demand for risk-off/configurational buying, with multiple arcs consensus supported by CFTC COT net long +137,662 contracts and a net creation inflow of approximately +$2.015B into GLD since 2026-08-03, which are the core non-price evidences for the bullish direction. Factors that temper confidence include: arc 529 and arc 170 marked price_in (partially priced in), with COT percentiles extreme, high option IV, and increased trading volume indicating crowdedness and volatility risks; the current |
| 2026-08-20 | Bullish lean | 0.68 | Maintain a mild positive bias towards GLD. Reasons: Two recent and validated geopolitical chains, arc 75 (US-Iran incident) and arc 529 (NATO/EU defense spending), provide independent non-price demand evidence as shown by the CFTC COT net long position of +137,662 contracts (continuously rising) and a real creation net inflow to GLD of approximately +$2.015B since 2026-08-03, indicating substantial positioning on both the funding and holding sides. It is important to note that arc 170 indicates some price action has already been factored into recent gains (price_in flagged=True), and rising 10-year real interest rates along with tightening liquidity over a cycle present structural headwinds. Therefore, maintain a mild positive bias but do not recommend aggressive rebalancing. |
| 2026-08-19 | Bullish lean | 0.68 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on GLD, primarily driven by the latest non-price evidence: the CFTC net long position (+137,662 contracts) reported in arc 75 and arc 170, along with GLD’s genuine creation net inflows since August 3, 2026 (≈+$2.0B, 30-day +≈1.7% AUM), indicating a substantive build-up of market and liquidity positions for gold. It is important to note that the arc 75 marked price has already been “priced-in” in part, and the rise in 10Y real interest rates (≈2.41%) along with extreme percentiles/crowding in COT reports increases the risk of a pullback. Therefore, it is not advisable to blindly increase positions. Overall: non-price evidence supports a medium-term bullish outlook, but given partial price incorporation and crowded/interest rate headwinds, positions should be kept cautious with room for risk management. |
| 2026-08-18 | Bullish lean | 0.72 | Continue bullish on GLD. Mainly driven by non-price evidence from arc 75 (US-Iran conflict): CFTC COT net long is extreme (+137,662 contracts) and recent speculative/hedging positions are increasing, while GLD has seen net new creations since August 3rd (approximately +$2.0B, 30-day AUM +1.76%), indicating real money and positioning buying gold. Arc 170 (precious metals demand/central bank) and nascent arcs 526/529 are reinforced by structural demand chains through central bank continued purchases and industry/defense-related demand; however, be wary of non-price headwinds—rising 10-year real interest rates, IV/GVZ at low levels, and crowded COT positions indicating potential for a pullback and risk of crowding. Given some price realization in recent periods, maintain a bullish stance but control position size and manage risk. |
| 2026-08-17 | Bullish lean | 0.68 | Continue bullish on GLD. Mainly supported by non-price evidence from arc 75 (US-Iran conflict) and arc 170 (precious metals demand/central bank buying): CFTC COT net longs are at an extreme (+137,662 contracts), central banks have been net buyers consecutively (approximately 640k oz), and GLD’s true creation net inflows confirm substantial physical/ETF-level buying. Note that price_in=True for arcs 75/94 (some of the rally within these windows has already been priced in) and COT congestion, along with a rise in 10-year real interest rates and liquidity withdrawal, may limit further upside. Therefore, maintain medium-high confidence but advise on managing congestion and withdrawal risks. |
| 2026-08-16 | Bullish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a bullish stance on GLD for the 1-3 month period, primarily based on independent non-price evidence: arc 75 (US-Iran 2026 War) in the latest report shows CFTC COT net longs of +137,662 contracts and coincides with actual creations/flows into GLD, indicating substantial buying demand at both the futures and ETF levels. Arc 170 further strengthens the demand-side evidence—central banks have been net buyers continuously, along with futures/ETF creations (central banks bought approximately 640,000 ounces in July 2026; GLD experienced a net inflow of about +0.90% AUM on a 30-day basis), providing structural support to gold prices. It is worth noting that arc 75 has price_in=True (some upward momentum within the window has been priced in), and with real interest rates at approximately 2.4% and Fed net liquidity withdrawal, there are headwinds for holding costs, increasing the risk of crowded trades or unwinding, thus confidence is |
| 2026-08-15 | Bullish lean | 0.65 | Maintain a bullish stance on GLD for the 1-3 month period. Mainly based on substantial non-price evidence—particularly the expansion of CFTC COT net longs to +137,662 contracts in the arc 75 (US-Iran 2026 War) report and the real net inflows into GLD since July 27, 2026, totaling approximately +$1.7B, as well as the ongoing central bank net purchases highlighted by arc 170, which constitute substantive buying support at the futures/ETF level. It should be noted that: on one hand, arc 75 indicates price_in=True, suggesting some of the rally has been priced in; on the other hand, multiple arcs point to a 10y real interest rate around 2.4% and Fed net liquidity tightening as headwinds for gold holding costs, thus reducing confidence and warranting continued vigilance regarding short-term retracement risks. |
| 2026-08-14 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bullish bias for GLD in the 1-3 month timeframe. The primary driver is non-price evidence: the CFTC COT net long position reported by arc 75/170/94 has expanded to +130,766 contracts, and there has been approximately $1.7B of genuine creation inflows into GLD since July 27, 2026, indicating substantial buying support at both the futures and ETF levels for risk/hedging needs. It is important to note the contradictions and limitations: while excess_sigma in arc 75 does not fully align with a bullish direction, the price_in_excess of this arc has been marked as partially reflected (possibly some market action has already been digested), and a 10-year real interest rate of approximately 2.4% represents a structural holding cost headwind for interest-free gold, thus maintaining moderate confidence rather than strong. |
| 2026-08-13 | Bullish lean | 0.66 | 维持偏多（1–3 个月），主要基于独立的非价格证据：arc 75（US‑Iran 2026 War）的即时确认性信号——CFTC COT 净多扩至 +130,766 手且 GLD 自 2026-07-27 起净申赎流入约 $1,737M，表明期货端与 ETF 层面的真实增配；同时 arc 170 报告的央行持续增持构成实物需求/库存吸收的独立支撑。需谨慎的是 10 年实际利率约 2.4%（构成对无息黄金的结构性持有成本逆风），因此采用“lean”而非“strong”的表述。 |
| 2026-08-12 | Bullish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a bullish stance (1-3 months), primarily driven by independent non-price evidence from arc 75: CFTC COT net long positions expanded to +130,766 contracts and GLD saw net redemptions of +$1,737M since July 27, 2026, indicating a true increase in positioning and inflows at both the futures and ETF levels. Additionally, the report from arc 170 shows continuous central bank purchases (physical buys in July), providing non-price support for physical demand and inventory absorption. However, caution is advised as arc 75 has been flagged with price_in (price_in_excess flag), and a real interest rate of ~2.4% poses a structural holding cost headwind for gold without interest income. Therefore, while the non-price evidence suggests an increased likelihood of bullishness, some of the gains may already be priced in, so we adopt a “lean” rather than a “strong” stance. |
| 2026-08-11 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a bullish stance, primarily driven by independent non-price evidence from Arc 75: China’s PBOC official purchase of about 19.9 tons in July, CFTC COT net longs expanding to +130,766 contracts, and continued net inflows into GLD, all indicating strengthened demand at both the physical and holding ends, supporting a bullish probability for 1-3 months. However, caution is warranted as Arc 75 has been marked as price_in (some of the gains may already be priced in), and an approximate 2.4% real 10-year rate poses a structural holding cost headwind to interest-free gold, thus moderately lowering confidence levels but remaining bullish. |
| 2026-08-10 | Bullish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a positive bias. The primary reason is the independent non-price evidence provided by arc 75: China's central bank added approximately 19.9 tons in July, CFTC COT net longs expanded to +130,766, and GLD experienced continuous net redemption inflows. Arc 264/170 also provides parallel support in terms of positions and liquidity, collectively altering the supply dynamics and position end, forming a medium-term bullish rationale. It is worth noting that arc 75 is marked as price_in (part of the gains may already be priced in), and the 10-year real interest rate at ~2.4% remains a structural headwind for interest-free gold. Therefore, maintain a positive bias but with caution. |
| 2026-08-09 | Bullish lean | 0.60 | 本轮从偏空转为偏多，主要由 arc 75（us_iran_2026_war）提供的独立非价格证据驱动：中国央行7月增持约19.91吨、CFTC COT 净多激增至 +130,766（第100百分位）以及 GLD 自7/20 起的净申赎流入（+$339M）共同构成对可售供给与持仓端的持续买盘证据，足以在1–3个月窗里改变供需预期。需审慎指出矛盾点：arc 75 同时被标注为 price_in（price_in_excess 被 flag），意味着部分涨幅可能已被市场计价；此外 10y 实际利率 ~2.4% 仍是对无息黄金的结构性持有成本逆风，因此只作“偏多”而非强烈确认。其余弧线多为 decaying/contested 且证据分裂，提供有限增量支撑或制衡。 |
| 2026-08-07 | Bearish lean | 0.54 | Maintain a lean negative stance on GLD. The primary driver is arc 75 (US-Iran): reports of the Hormuz Strait reopening weaken the path from shipping/energy disruptions to sustained risk aversion buying. Non-price quantitative evidence indicates that an increase in real rates (approximately 2.4-2.5%) raises the opportunity cost of holding interest-free gold, providing a non-price basis for the lean negative stance. The modest support from CFTC net longs and slight net redemptions since July 20 are offset by rising rates and reduced geo-political risks; arc 75 is marked as price_in_excess in this trade direction, thus confidence should be contested/decaying lean negative |
| 2026-08-06 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a lean negative stance on GLD. Mainly supported by non-price evidence from arc 75 (US-Iran 2026 War): reports of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz weaken the path from shipping/energy disruptions to risk-on buying, while an upward move in ten-year real interest rates (approximately 2.4-2.5%) increases the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold; CFTC net long positions and small redemptions provide mild support but are insufficient to offset cooling interest rate and geo-political risks. Multiple arcs remain contested, with some already priced in, thus taking a lean negative stance with moderate confidence, and not increasing confidence due to the priced-in indicator. |
| 2026-08-05 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a bearish stance on GLD, primarily supported by non-price evidence from arc 75 (US-Iran 2026 War): reports of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz weaken the transmission path from shipping/energy disruptions to safe-haven buying; meanwhile, multiple arcs show that the 10-year real interest rate has risen (approximately 2.4-2.5%) and increased the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold, with GVZ/option IV at low levels failing to confirm a risk premium. The CFTC COT net long position and minor redemptions provide mild support but cannot offset the structural headwinds from interest rates and low volatility; moreover, multiple arcs have negative price_in_excess indicating that some downside has already been factored in, thus taking a bearish stance over a 1-3 month window with moderate-low confidence. |
| 2026-08-04 | Bearish lean | 0.52 | Maintain a bearish stance on GLD, primarily based on non-price evidence from arcs 196 (US Debt Crisis) and 170 (Metal Prices & Demand): the 10-year real interest rate has risen above 2.4%, significantly increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold; meanwhile, option levels and GVZ indicate low risk premiums (IV historical percentile≈0%GVZ z≈-1 to -1.64), with no widespread demand for hedging confirmed. The net longs and small net redemptions from CFTC/COT provide mild support to prices, but the price_in_excess of multiple arcs is negative (partially reflected), hence confidence levels are constrained by 'already factored in/price realization' signals and should not be elevated to high certainty. |
| 2026-08-03 | Bearish lean | 0.44 | Maintain a lean negative stance on GLD, primarily based on the non-price quantitative evidence from arcs 196 and 170: real interest rates have risen to approximately 2.41%, significantly increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing gold. Additionally, options/GVZ are at extremely low percentiles, restraining the expansion of risk premium. Multiple arcs within the price window have been partially |
| 2026-08-02 | Bearish lean | 0.42 | 维持对 GLD 的偏空判断，主要基于 arc 196（US Debt Crisis）和 arc 170（Metals Price & Demand）提供的非价格量化证据：10 年实际利率已升至约 2.41–2.44%，提高了持有无息黄金的机会成本，构成结构性下行压力。尽管期货端 COT 仍显示净多（对价格有温和支撑），多条弧已被标注 price_in_excess（下跌在窗口内被部分“priced‑in”），且 IV/GVZ 处于低位，故不能提升置信度。多数事件仍被标为 contested 或 decaying，且风险环境偏向平静，因而将置信度保持在中低水平。 |
| 2026-08-01 | Bearish lean | 0.45 | Maintain a bearish stance on GLD, primarily based on non-price quantitative evidence such as arc 75 (US-Iran 2026 War): the rise in real interest rates (10y real rate ≈2.44%, +26bp over 20d) continues to pose a structural headwind for interest-free gold. While CFTC futures show net long positions and increasing OI, ETF shorts and short_interest increases are merely indicative of crowded or unwind risks in the position backdrop and cannot alone offset the fundamental pressure driven by rates. Additionally, it should be noted that most arcs have been flagged with price_in_excess, indicating that some declines have already been 'priced-in' by the market, thus maintaining a low to medium level of confidence. |
| 2026-07-31 | Bearish lean | 0.45 | Maintain a bearish stance. The primary reason remains the structural macro headwinds reflected in arc 75 (US-Iran 2026 War): the 10Y real interest rate has risen to around 2.44% (+26bp over 20 days), increasing the holding cost of non-yielding gold; this arc also indicates that a risk premium for price_in_excess has been flagged (-11.69%), suggesting that some of the risk premium has already been priced in by the market within the arc window. Contrarian evidence comes from the CFTC net longs and ETF shorts, which constitute crowded/cover risk and limit extreme bearishness; additionally, current risk indicators (VIX term ratio ≈ 0.92, rising net liquidity, low GVZ/IV) also dampen systemic risk aversion. In summary, while non-price interest rate/positioning evidence dominates, the stance remains bearish but with reduced confidence due to 'priced in + crowded/low volatility' conditions. |
| 2026-07-30 | Bearish lean | 0.47 | Maintain a bearish stance. The primary reason remains the structural headwinds highlighted by arc 75 (US-Iran 2026 War), which show an increase in 10Y real interest rates (≈2.44%, 20d +26bp) raising the holding cost of unyielding gold. This arc also indicates that a portion of the risk premium has been flagged, suggesting that some of this premium has already been priced into the market. While futures net long positions (arc 196/170) and accumulated shorts bring backfill/crowding risks as partial support, GVZ/IV is at low levels and rising net liquidity weakens systemic risk demand. Therefore, maintain a bearish stance with limited confidence (adjusting weights for the 'already priced' factors). |
| 2026-07-29 | Bearish lean | 0.52 | 维持偏空：主导性的非价格证据来自 arc 75（US‑Iran 事件）所指出的结构性逆风——20d 内实际利率上升（10Y 实际利率≈2.44%，20d +26bp）提高了持有成本，削弱了对无息黄金的需求。尽管期货端 CFTC 显示净多（支持潜在避险买盘或投机），但多个弧线同时标注 price_in（例如 arc 75 的 price_in_excess=-11.69%），表明部分下行已被市场兑现，且 GVZ/IV 未显著扩张。综上非价格证据倾向抑制金价，上行动力不足，但因存在未平仓多头与空头拥挤回补风险，故仅“偏空”而非明确空头，且置信度被已被计价与证据分裂所压低。 |
| 2026-07-28 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a negative bias (lean_negative). The driving reasons are primarily non-price evidence: arc 75 (US-Iran de-escalation) shows an increase in real rates (10y real rate ≈2.43%, +20bp over 20d), GLD has seen net outflows of approximately -$442M over the past 20 days, and low option IV all raise holding costs for gold and weaken the risk-off transmission chain. The only countervailing evidence from the hedging end is a CFTC net long position (arc 196), but this has not been accompanied by new inflows or IV expansion, making it difficult to offset the downward pressure from interest rates and outflows. Additionally, several arcs are marked as price_in (prices have partially factored in), so we must acknowledge that some of the decline has already been absorbed by the market, which lowers our confidence accordingly. |
| 2026-07-27 | Bearish lean | 0.52 | Maintain a lean negative stance. The primary non-price driver comes from arc 75 (US-Iran): recent de-escalation events have weakened the geopolitical -> safe-haven -> gold transmission chain; meanwhile, cross-arc non-price evidence indicates rising carry costs (10y real interest rate around 2.43%, +20bp in 20d), continued net outflows from GLD ETFs, and low option IV levels do not support new safe-haven buying. While net long positions (arc 196) still exist at CFTC, they have not been accompanied by significant inflows or IV expansion, and several arcs are marked as already partially priced in, so I maintain a moderately low-confidence negative view. |
| 2026-07-26 | Bearish lean | 0.48 | Driven by the latest 'demineralization' signal from arc 75 (us_iran_2026_war), non-price quantitative evidence is bearish: The 10Y real interest rate remains at a high level (≈2.43%, +20bp over 20 days) increasing holding costs, GLD has seen net outflows in the past 20 days (approximately -$442M), and option IV is low (historical percentile ~20%), all of which weaken the risk-on buying driven by geopolitical tensions. Net long positions still exist but are not accompanied by inflows or IV expansion, and multiple arcs have their price_in marked as True, indicating that some declines have already been priced in, so I lean bearish but with limited confidence (partially discounted/risks already priced-in). At the same time, hedging/reverse evidence (COT net long) is a significant contradictory reason for this judgment, hence it does not warrant a high-confidence short position. |
| 2026-07-25 | Neutral | 0.26 | Maintain a neutral/one-sided position. Non-price quantitative evidence shows clear divergence: CFTC net long positions in futures (see arcs 75, 264) provide potential bullish interest, but rising actual rates (10y real rate ~2.32–2.43% in arc 264/75) and recent ETF net outflows along with price_in noted in several arcs (arcs 75/86/170) constitute significant holding costs or headwinds already reflected by the market, making it difficult to form a actionable one-sided view. The recent Houthi attacks (arc 454) serve as a catalyst but lack independent and sustained non-price triggers; in the current risk-averse environment (REGIME VIX term ratio elevated), maintain cautious observation with low confidence. |