INDA iShares MSCI India ETF
Bearish lean Confidence 0.56 Regime Low-vol
Maintain a medium-term bearish stance on INDA, primarily based on non-price evidence: arc 375 and arc 99 indicate net redemptions of approximately -10.3% AUM over the past 30 days (indicating ongoing capital outflows) amid high US Treasury yields and rising funding costs, which continue to exert downward pressure on emerging markets and Indian equities; arc 424 adds a unique transmission mechanism for India – tightening near-end crude oil contango (WTI front/backwardation) could boost import inflation and make the RBI more inclined to tighten monetary policy, further suppressing valuations and foreign investment. It is worth noting that price_in_excess for arc 375 has been marked (part of the downside has already been priced in), which I have factored into a slightly reduced confidence level; arc 99 remains decaying support with relatively lower weight, so maintaining a bearish stance but not increasing exposure.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a medium-term bearish stance on INDA, primarily based on non-price evidence: arc 375 and arc 99 indicate net redemptions of approximately -10.3% AUM over the past 30 days (indicating ongoing capital outflows) amid high US Treasury yields and rising funding costs, which continue to exert downward pressure on emerging markets and Indian equities; arc 424 adds a unique transmission mechanism for India – tightening near-end crude oil contango (WTI front/backwardation) could boost import inflation and make the RBI more inclined to tighten monetary policy, further suppressing valuations and foreign investment. It is worth noting that price_in_excess for arc 375 has been marked (part of the downside has already been priced in), which I have factored into a slightly reduced confidence level; arc 99 remains decaying support with relatively lower weight, so maintaining a bearish stance but not increasing exposure. |
| 2026-10-14 | Bearish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a bearish stance on INDA (1-3 months). Mainly due to non-price evidence from arc 375: net redemptions of about -10.34% AUM over the past 30 days, with rising foreign and financing costs (high US Treasury yields) providing a sustained downward force on emerging markets; at the same time, arc 424 offers a unique transmission chain for India—tightening near-month oil backwardation may boost import inflation and prompt RBI to become more hawkish, further suppressing foreign capital and valuations. Note that price_in has been flagged (price_in_excess flagged=True), indicating that some of the downward sentiment has already been factored into the market, so should be applied when giving a bearish conclusion. |
| 2026-10-13 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | 维持对 INDA 的偏空判断（1–3 个月）。主要驱动来自 arc 375（Latin America Economy）的非价格量化证据：近30日净申赎约 -9.9% AUM、持续资金外流与 creation‑bid 被削弱，加之美债收益率上行通过利差/融资成本通道对新兴市场构成下行压力，构成一条非价格的下行动力链。需说明 price_in 已被 flag（price_in_excess ≈ -9%），表明部分风险已被市场计入，因此在给出偏空结论时适度压低置信度；arc 99 与 arc 419 提供次级的资金面/利率佐证，但均为 decaying/contested，未单独形成更高置信的反向因果链。 |
| 2026-10-12 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a bearish stance on INDA (1-3 months), primarily driven by non-price quantitative evidence from arcs 375 (Latin America Economy) and 340 (India-Pakistan): net redemptions of approximately -9.86% AUM over the past 30 days, with outflows of about -$33M since 2026-10-02, indicating weakened creation-bid and a sustained sell pressure from passive and active redemptions. It should be noted that prices have partially reflected this risk (price_in is flagged as True), and high option IV, along with increased short positions and days-to-cover, add to the risk of squeeze and volatility. Therefore, I intentionally lower my confidence level while acknowledging the non-price evidence. Given the current mixed risk profile and a potential upward bias in the short-term market (which runs counter to our bearish stance), the conclusion remains bearish but with moderate confidence, and we recognize the limitation that this risk is already priced in and could lead to a reversal. |
| 2026-10-11 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bearish stance on INDA, primarily driven by non-price quantitative evidence from arc 375 (Latin America Economy): net redemptions of approximately -9.86% AUM over the past 30 days, and outflows of about -$33M since 2026-10-02, indicating weakened creation-bid and a sustained sell pressure from passive and active redemptions. Arc 340 (India-Pakistan) remains supportive of this downward path despite a declining trend, but multiple arcs indicate that price_in has partially reflected the situation (price_in_excess flagged=True). Therefore, while recent operational liquidity evidence strengthens the bearish stance, I set my confidence level to moderately high and limit the risk of 'already priced' factors. |
| 2026-10-10 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a lean negative view on INDA, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 375 (Latin America Economy): the latest snapshot shows net redemptions of approximately -9.86% AUM over the past 30 days, and outflows of about -$33M since 2026-10-02, constituting a structural selling pressure that continues to weaken the creation bid. While arcs 340 (India-Pakistan) and 99 (Fed 2026 Rate Cycle) also point or hint towards downside risks, they are mostly in attenuated/controversial positions and fail to offset the direct flow evidence from arc 375. Note that multiple arcs have been marked as price_in_excess (with most -9% ranges partially priced in), so this downside risk has already been partly absorbed by prices. I therefore maintain a moderate-high confidence level with |
| 2026-10-09 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a lean negative stance on INDA. The decisive factor is the evidence from arcs 375 (Latin America Economy) and 105/340, which provide independent non-price indicators: net redemptions over the past 30 days are approximately -9.7% to -9.86% AUM, with cumulative net redemptions since September 29, 2026, amounting to about -$33M, constituting ongoing supply-side selling pressure and weakening the creation bid. Arc 375 is a recent confirmation signal (days_since_event=1, strengthen_streak=2), which strengthens this causal chain; however, multiple arcs are marked as price_in_excess (some declines have already been factored in), so confidence is maintained with moderation. Contrary arcs such as 361/419 suggest possible funding rotation paths, but there is currently a lack of corresponding cross-border capital flows or quantitative evidence of similar ETFs shifting to India, which is not sufficient to reverse the stance. |
| 2026-10-08 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a lean negative stance on INDA. The decision is primarily based on the independent non-price evidence from arcs 375 (Latin America Economy) and 105/340: multiple snapshots show net redemptions of approximately -9% AUM over the past 30 days, with cumulative net redemptions of about -$100M/-$33M since 2026-09-25/29, indicating clear supply-side selling pressure. This is non-price causal evidence. Note that some declines have already been factored in (the price_in for arcs 375 and 340 are flagged), so the captureable alpha space is limited. I therefore set my confidence level at 0.62 accordingly. While the broader market has seen short-term gains, this lean negative stance is driven by arc-specific dynamics such as the India-Pakistan conflict (arc 340) and yen/asset reallocation (arc 105), rather than a simple contrarian bet on the overall market. |
| 2026-10-07 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a lean negative stance on INDA. The decision is primarily based on the non-price, causal chain evidence provided by arcs 105/340/375: net redemptions of approximately -9% AUM over the past 30 days, and cumulative net redemptions of about -$100M since 2026-09-25, indicating persistent supply-side selling pressure independent of price trends. Note that multiple arcs have their price_in flagged (indicating some declines are already priced in), thus limiting the captureable alpha despite consistent directionality. I will moderately lower confidence due to |
| 2026-10-06 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bearish stance on INDA, primarily based on non-price flow-of-funds evidence from multiple arcs: Arcs 105/340/375 reported net redemptions of approximately -9% to -9.77% AUM over the past 30 days, and have cumulatively redeemed about -$100M since 2026-09-25, indicating genuine supply-side selling pressure. Arc 375 is a recent (approximately 3-day) confirmatory signal that strengthens the downward path's continuity; however, note that price_in for arcs 340 and 375 have been flagged, suggesting that some of the decline has already been absorbed by the market. Therefore, while maintaining a bearish stance, lower confidence appropriately. Although SPY’s short-term upward movement is within the context of broader market conditions (counter-trend risk), there are clear arc-specific drivers (India-Pakistan conflict Arc 340, BoJ/Yen normalization Arc 105 + ongoing net redemptions) that provide non-price justifications for the bearish position. |
| 2026-10-05 | Bearish lean | 0.55 | We maintain a bearish stance on INDA, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arcs 340 (India-Pakistan conflict) and arc 105 (BoJ/Yen normalization): net redemptions of -9.12% AUM over the past 30 days, with near-term net redemptions totaling approximately -$100M since September 25, 2026 (AUM ≈ $5.8B), indicating real supply-side selling pressure. The option layer (put IV > call IV, skew +1.51pt) and ongoing net outflows further support a downward path; however, it should be noted that the price_in for arc 340 has been flagged, and some of the downside in certain arcs may have already been partially realized, meaning limited potential downside capture is available, thus lowering confidence intentionally. Given the current market environment (SPY 20d up), this position slightly goes against the broader trend; we maintain our bearish stance on INDA using arc 340's cash flow evidence as a named idiosyncratic driver but advise controlling the position and maintaining moderate confidence. |
| 2026-10-04 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a bearish stance (1-3 months) on INDA, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arcs 340 and 105: 30d net redemptions at -9.12% AUM (AUM ≈ $5.8B), with net redemptions of approximately -$100M since 2026-09-25, indicating real supply-side selling pressure. The options market also supports protective/pessimistic positioning (put IV > call IV, skew +1.51pt), and multiple co-trending arcs (340, 105, 375) enhance consistency; however, note the key contradiction—arcs 340/375 have flagged price_in (part of the downside is already discounted by the market), so the scope for capturing downside is limited and positions should be managed accordingly. Given the current risk-on market environment (SPY 20d positive), this is a contrarian bearish call based on the aforementioned idiosyncratic (India-Pakistan geo-political and BoJ/Yen transmission) non-price evidence. |
| 2026-10-03 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a bearish stance on INDA (1-3 months). The non-price evidence primarily driven by arcs 340 (India-Pakistan conflict) and arc 105 (BoJ/yen normalization): the latest snapshot shows sustained and scaled net redemptions (30d -9.12% AUM, AUM ≈ $5.8B, net outflows of approximately -$100M since 2026-09-25), and option dynamics (put IV>call IV, positive skew) support a protective/pessimistic positioning, forming a quantifiable chain of redemptions -> passive share selling -> supply-side downward momentum. Note that these forces are partially reflected in the price (price_in flagged), so while acknowledging the evidence's validity, caution should be exercised regarding confidence; the latest price/outflow signals for arc 375 provide supplementary support for the bearish argument but are not the primary causal chain. |
| 2026-10-02 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bearish (1-3 months) view on INDA, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arcs 340 (India-Pakistan conflict) and arc 105 (BoJ/Yen normalization): the latest snapshot shows sustained and scaled net redemptions (30d -9.04% AUM, 90d -11.34%, net outflows of approximately -$143M since 2026-09-23), with an increase in pricing for downside protection (put IV>call IV, high IV historical percentile), forming a quantifiable chain of 'redemption -> passive selling -> supply-side downward momentum'. Arc 340 is an actionable and fresh signal (days_since_event ≈ 3.9, excess_sigma +0.55), further reinforcing the bearish rationale; however, it should be noted that this downside has been marked as partially priced in several arcs (price_in flag=True), thus moderately lowering confidence. Other arcs remain early or controversial and do not provide sufficient non-price counter-evidence, hence maintaining a bearish stance. |
| 2026-10-01 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a bearish (1-3 months) view on INDA, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arcs 340 and 105: the latest snapshot shows substantial net redemptions continuing at large scales (-9.04% AUM in 30d, -11.34% in 90d since September 23, 2026, for a net outflow of approximately -$143M), and the pricing of downside protection on the options side (put IV and skew rising) supports a quantifiable chain of events from redemptions to passive selling to supply-side downward momentum. It should be noted that prices are already marked as priced-in in several arcs, indicating that this decline has been partially reflected in the market to some extent. Therefore, while reducing confidence given the pricing, still maintain a bearish stance. Other arcs remain contentious or early-stage and do not provide strong non-price counter-evidence to change direction. |
| 2026-09-30 | Bearish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a bearish stance on INDA. The non-price evidence primarily driven by arcs 340 (India-Pakistan conflict) and arc 105 (BoJ yen normalization): the latest snapshot shows substantial net outflows in terms of net redemptions (30d -9.04% AUM, 90d -11.34%, net outflow of approximately -$143M since 2026-09-23), and an increase in IV/put-call skew at the options end, forming a quantifiable chain of 'redemption -> passive share selling -> supply-side downward momentum'. Note that some of the declines have already been priced in (arcs 340 and 419 are marked with price_in within their respective windows), so confidence remains moderately high while acknowledging partial pricing-in; no other controversial arcs provide alternative non-price counter-evidence. |
| 2026-09-29 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bearish stance on INDA. Non-price-driven evidence is crucial: arcs 340 (recently confirmed) and arc 105 indicate ongoing true net redemptions (-6% to -8% AUM over the 30d range), providing quantifiable downward pressure through 'redemption -> passive share selling -> supply-side pressure'; arcs 419/99 also show an increase in option IV and risk premium, further supporting the risk of tightening liquidity conditions. Note that some of the declines have already been reflected in market prices (arcs 340, 419 marked price_in), so while there is fresh confirming evidence, confidence remains moderate to slightly above. |
| 2026-09-27 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | Maintain a bearish stance on INDA, primarily based on the quantifiable non-price evidence provided by arcs 105/340/375: genuine net redemptions from INDA starting on 2026-09-18 amount to approximately -$267M (≈-4.39% AUM), with cumulative outflows over 30 and 90 days at around -6.7% / -9.3%, serving as a direct downward force due to 'outflow of funds → passive/active selling → supply-side pressure'. It is important to note that some of the decline has already been reflected in prices (arcs 375, 419 marked price_in), and option IV levels are low (historical percentile ≈5%), indicating cheap downside protection pricing—thus limiting confidence. This conclusion is driven by flows/supply-demand rather than prices, and these arcs are treated as idiosyncratic drivers in the discussion. Therefore, while still bearish, the confidence level remains moderate in this market context. |
| 2026-09-26 | Bearish lean | 0.56 | Maintain bearish stance: The primary driver comes from quantifiable non-price evidence provided by arcs 340 (India-Pakistan), arc 105 (BoJ), and arc 375 – genuine net redemptions for INDA have significantly expanded since September 18, 2026 (sample window shows net outflows of approximately -6.7% / -9% AUM over 30/90 days respectively), forming a direct transmission chain from fund outflow to passive/active selling and supply-side pressure. Note that arc 375 is marked with price_in, indicating that some impact has already been digested by prices, thus limiting confidence below 0.60; arc 99 (Fed 2026 rate cycle) remains contested and does not reverse the flow of funds claim. Based on this independent evidence of fund flows (not just price momentum), maintain a bearish stance with low to medium confidence. |
| 2026-09-25 | Bearish lean | 0.54 | Maintain a bearish stance. The main drivers come from quantifiable non-price evidence provided by arcs 340 (India-Pakistan) and arc 105 (BoJ): true redemptions for INDA have expanded to approximately -$419M (≈-6.85% AUM) and -$387M (≈-6.32% AUM) since mid-September, forming a direct transmission chain of 'outflows → passive selling → supply pressure'. Note that arc 375 shows prices have partially reflected this (price_in marker with window price_in_excess), so some downward momentum may already be priced in and confidence is correspondingly dampened, making overconfidence inappropriate. |
| 2026-09-24 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | The outlook has shifted from 'mixed' to lean negative, primarily driven by quantifiable non-price evidence corresponding to arc 340 (India-Pakistan conflict): since mid-September, net redemptions for INDA have expanded to approximately -$419M (≈-6.85% AUM), and a similar level of continuous net redemptions has been reported for arc 105 (BOJ yen normalization) at ≈-$387M (-6.32% AUM). These direct outflows form an observable transmission chain from supply to passive selling to downward pressure, supporting a short-term lean negative judgment on non-price levels. However, there is partial price reflection (arc 375 marked with price_in_excess=True), and the Fed-related arcs (arc 99) remain contested without providing corresponding supportive evidence, thus maintaining low-to-moderate confidence. |
| 2026-09-21 | Mixed | 0.40 | Maintain a 'mixed' judgment. The driving non-price evidence primarily comes from arc 361 (ECB hawkish surprise) and arc 340 (India-Pakistan conflict) — with net redemptions of INDA -$197M since September 14, 2026, and an increase in put-call skew on the options side indicating higher demand for downside protection, suggesting short-term downward pressure on INDA from liquidity and hedging needs. However, most arcs are still marked as contested/nascent, and some of the downward pressures have already been priced into the price (price_in is noted). Therefore, while the evidence is converging, it is not sufficient to shift to a one-sided view, and confidence remains low to medium. |
| 2026-09-20 | Mixed | 0.32 | Maintain a ‘mixed’ view. The unexpected hawkish turn by the ECB (arc 361) provides a quantifiable non-price transmission channel – potential re-pricing of spreads/rates may put downward pressure on Indian assets, but this downside has been partially reflected in prices (price_in marked as True). Meanwhile, localized political risks in Latin America (arc 375), evidenced through funding and option dynamics, have increased the demand for downside hedging (net redemptions of approximately -$164M since 2026-09-11, put-call skew +1.90pt). These arcs add to cautionary reasons. Despite these non-price indicators, the overall signal remains mixed and not fully penetrated by a single, confirmed non-price chain (e.g., no significant COT shifts or direct foreign exchange/reserve interventions), and some of the negative factors have already been priced in, so it is not advisable to take a one-sided position over 1-3 months. |
| 2026-09-19 | Mixed | 0.32 | Combining all the arcs, there is evidence of a non-price downward channel (arc 361: ECB / ), as well as targeted funding/hedging signals that support caution (arc 375: Latin American political shock -> decline in cross-market risk appetite, accompanied by net redemptions from INDA and increased put skew). However, there is no single recent and confirmed operational arc that can fully penetrate the |
| 2026-09-18 | Mixed | 0.28 | Maintain a mixed outlook. The arc 361 (ECB) provides a clear non-price downside channel—a hawkish surprise (ecb_rate_decision actual=2.5) can suppress demand for INDA through yield curve/rate transmission, but this effect is already partially reflected in the price_in indicator. Meanwhile, the non-price evidence from arcs 340/105/99 (net redemptions of -$164M for INDA starting from 2026-09-11, -0.91% AUM over 30d) is also negative, but systemic liquidity has not significantly tightened and factors such as falling oil prices partially offset this, so there is no one-sided tradable signal. In summary: evidence is mixed, maintain a mixed stance with low to moderate confidence, and note that the ECB's impact may already be factored into prices. |
| 2026-09-17 | Mixed | 0.20 | Maintain a mixed stance. ECB's arc 361 (ECB) indeed provided a non-price driver: the hawkish surprise from the ECB rate decision (actual=2.5) may exert downward pressure on INDA via exchange rate/interest rate differential transmission, but this impact has been marked as price_in and partially offset by oil price declines and relatively loose systemic liquidity. Arc 105 (BoJ/Yen) currently lacks non-price evidence capable of triggering cross-border capital reallocation (low IV, redemptions, and liquidity indicators), while arc 340 (India-Pakistan conflict) remains in its early stages with low predicted market probabilities (p≈0.14). Therefore, the non-price evidence is contradictory without a clear one-sided tradable signal. In summary: maintain a mixed stance with low confidence, noting that downside concerns are partially reflected in prices. |
| 2026-09-16 | Mixed | 0.20 | Maintain a mixed view. The non-price evidence from the three arcs contradicts itself: arc 361 (ECB) shows relative weakness, but this decline has been marked as price_in, and its quantitative non-price signals do not support a clear unidirectional downward trend; arc 105 (BoJ/JPY) lacks non-price evidence that would trigger cross-border capital reallocation (low IV, redemption, and liquidity indicators do not support systematic withdrawal); arc 340 (India-Pakistan conflict) remains in its early stages and the predictive market/volatility has not shown a significant escalation probability (p≈0.14), so it cannot be considered as a unidirectional driver. In summary: non-price evidence is mixed, with some declines already factored in; maintain a mixed stance with low confidence. |
| 2026-09-15 | Mixed | 0.20 | Maintain a mixed outlook. The primary downside non-price evidence, driven by arc 99 (Fed), mainly stems from the prediction of an increased likelihood of further rate hikes to around 0.83 and positive surprises in core CPI, which constitute a tighter macroeconomic environment; however, the relatively weak signals shown by arc 361 have been flagged as price_in (price_in_excess flagged), and shared quantitative signals—low IV, net liquidity for the past four weeks still showing inflows with minor ETF redemptions—offset the one-sided downside non-price evidence. Arc 105 (BoJ/JPY) does not provide non-price evidence that could trigger large-scale cross-border capital reallocation, while arc 340 (India-Pakistan conflict) remains in its early stages and has a low probability in the prediction market; therefore, there are no new non-price drivers to shift our outlook from mixed. In summary: The non-price evidence across arcs largely offsets each other, with some downside already priced in, maintaining a mixed view with low confidence. |
| 2026-09-14 | Mixed | 0.20 | Maintain a mixed view: the non-price quantitative evidence across arcs cancels out, failing to support a one-sided position in INDA. The primary non-price evidence driving downside is from arc 99 (Fed): market-implied probability of rate hikes has risen to ~0.83 and core CPI showed positive surprises (σ≈+1.2), creating a tighter macroeconomic environment; however, the relative weakness in arc 361 has been flagged as price_in (price_in_excess already flagged), indicating that much of this decline is already priced in and should lower confidence. Arc 105 (BoJ/JPY) does not provide non-price evidence to drive cross-asset reallocation, while arc 340 (India-Pakistan conflict) remains early with low market-implied probabilities; combined with shared low IV and relatively loose net liquidity, this supports maintaining a mixed outlook and lowering confidence. |
| 2026-09-13 | Mixed | 0.30 | Maintain a mixed view: the non-price quantitative evidence from various arcs cancels out, failing to support a one-sided position in INDA. The main downside non-price drivers come from arc 99 (Fed 2026 rate cycle): the market predicts an approximate probability of interest rate hikes of 0.67, strong U.S. non-farm data (162k), and a marginal withdrawal of net liquidity over the past four weeks totaling -$72B, which exerts actual pressure on emerging markets; however, arc 105 (BoJ/Yen normalization) lacks quantifiable non-price evidence to confirm directional flows that could impact India's funding conditions. The relative weakness in arc 361 is partially attributed to price_in (with price_in_excess already factored in), indicating that part of the decline may have been priced into the market, thus maintaining a low level of confidence. |