SHY iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Bullish lean Confidence 0.30 Regime Low-vol · at high
Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, primarily due to arc 197: short-duration bonds benefit relatively more in scenarios of macroeconomic weakening or inflation easing. Supporting non-price evidence includes market-implied Fed-path (~3.735%), strong auction demand for Treasuries, and low MOVE (reducing acute selling risk), which provide defensive support to short-term bonds; however, caution is warranted as arc 197 also shows CFTC extreme net short positions on 2Y and recent net redemptions from SHY, with the arc state decaying and some excess returns already digested (price_in_excess +1.42%). Given the potential for significant macro data to trigger a directional change in the near term, maintain a bullish stance but with low confidence.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Bullish lean | 0.30 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, primarily due to arc 197: short-duration bonds benefit relatively more in scenarios of macroeconomic weakening or inflation easing. Supporting non-price evidence includes market-implied Fed-path (~3.735%), strong auction demand for Treasuries, and low MOVE (reducing acute selling risk), which provide defensive support to short-term bonds; however, caution is warranted as arc 197 also shows CFTC extreme net short positions on 2Y and recent net redemptions from SHY, with the arc state decaying and some excess returns already digested (price_in_excess +1.42%). Given the potential for significant macro data to trigger a directional change in the near term, maintain a bullish stance but with low confidence. |
| 2026-08-23 | Bullish lean | 0.32 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, primarily due to arc 197 (us_debt_crisis): excess_sigma = +0.63 within days_since_event = 5 supports short-duration benefit in a macroeconomic weakening scenario. This arc also provides independent non-price evidence—CFTC COT shows significant net shorts for 2y (-1,359,521 contracts) and net redemptions for SHY (5d -0.97%, 30d -1.69%), which are substantial quantitative signals that substantially inhibit bullish sentiment from the funds. Note also that price_in_excess ≈ +1.02% indicates that some gains have already been priced in, and the arc state is decaying/weaken_streak = 3; therefore, maintain a bullish stance but with low confidence. |
| 2026-08-22 | Bullish lean | 0.32 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, with the driving non-price evidence coming from arc 197 (us_debt_crisis): the latest macroeconomic weakness still supports a marginal decline in short-term interest rates, which is beneficial for short-duration. The reason for reduced confidence is the reverse independent evidence of this arc itself—CFTC COT shows significant net shorts on 2y (-1,359,521 contracts) and net redemptions from SHY (5d -0.97%, 30d -1.69%), in addition to price_in_excess ≈ +1.02% indicating that some gains have already been reflected by the market. Overall, based on non-price macroeconomic deceleration reasons, maintain a bullish stance but remain cautious due to position/redemption signals and naked short futures positions. |
| 2026-08-21 | Bullish lean | 0.32 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY. The driving non-price evidence comes from arc 197: the latest macro weakness (e.g., retail sales -0.6%) still tends to push front-end rates lower, supporting short-duration yields. This arc is currently decaying (weaken_streak=3), and there is significant independent countervailing evidence—CFTC net positions for 2y near -1,359,521 (indicating market bets on short-end rates rising) and SHY net redemptions (-0.97% in 5d, -1.69% in 30d), with price_in_excess≈+1.02% suggesting that some gains have already been priced in. The overall view is cautiously bullish: the direction remains but confidence is low to reflect the tug-of-war between macro support and independent countervailing signals from positions/redemptions and COT data. |
| 2026-08-20 | Bullish lean | 0.32 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY. The driving non-price evidence from arc 197: recent macro indicators (such as weaker-than-expected retail sales) still support a decline in short-term rates, benefiting the front-end duration. Meanwhile, arc 197 itself has shown weakening (weaken_streak=3) and indicates that some gains have been reflected by the market (price_in_excess≈+1.02%), with an independent contrarian signal—CFTC large-scale net short positions in 2y and SHY net outflows—reducing upward potential. The overall view is cautiously bullish: direction supported by macro weakness but with significantly reduced confidence, cautioning against crowded positions and redemption/holding risks. |
| 2026-08-19 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY. The driving non-price evidence comes from arc 197:2026-08-14, where retail sales surprised negatively (surprise σ = -2.8), supporting a long position in the front end due to the causal chain of macro weakness leading to lower short-term interest rate expectations and benefit for front-end coupons/short-duration bonds. Notable contradictory evidence includes recent 5/30-day net outflows, CFTC's large net short positions on 2-year notes (crowding/reversal risk), a weaken_streak=2 in the arc, and existing price_in_excess (+1.53%, but not fully priced_in), which limit upside and lower confidence. |
| 2026-08-18 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a positive stance on SHY, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 197: the significant weakness in retail sales on 2026-08-14 (surprise σ = -2.8) supports a long position in the front end via the causal chain of macroeconomic weakness leading to a downward adjustment in short-term interest rate expectations, benefiting the front-end coupon and short-duration segments. Notable contradictory evidence includes recent 5/30-day fund outflows, CFTC's high net short positions for the 2-year (crowding/risk signal), weaken_streak=2 in arc, and existing price_in_excess (+1.53%), which limit upward potential and lower confidence levels. Given that the driving signals are confirmed non-price evidence on the day of confirmation and excess_sigma aligns with the direction, a positive stance is maintained but with moderately high confidence. |
| 2026-08-17 | Bullish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 197 (US Debt Crisis): retail sales showed a significant surprise (-2.8) decline on August 14th, accompanied by a downward shift in the market-implied federal funds rate path, and strong demand at Treasury auctions, which support a decrease in front-end rates and benefit short-duration bonds. Arc 197 also includes recent evidence that weakens this path—housing data indicate that foreclosures and inventory have not worsened, and CFTC net short positions for the 2-year yield remain high, limiting upward potential and reducing confidence. Given that this driver is recent non-price evidence that aligns with excess_sigma, maintain a moderate to high level of confidence. |
| 2026-08-16 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 197 (US Debt Crisis): retail sales in August 14th significantly underperformed expectations (surprise σ = -2.8), leading to a downward shift in the market's implied federal funds rate path, and strong demand for Treasury auctions continues, providing quantitative signals that support a decline in front-end yields independently of price action, which is favorable for short-term bonds/front-end duration. Contrary evidence also comes from arc 197: CFTC net short positions for 2-year futures remain at high levels (-1,359,521 contracts), indicating crowded speculative short positions and limiting further upward movement. Therefore, confidence remains moderately high (0.62). |
| 2026-08-15 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 197: latest retail sales have significantly weakened (surprise σ = -2.8), pushing the market's implied Fed funds rate lower and maintaining strong demand for Treasury auctions, which quantitatively support a decline in front-end yields and benefit short-term bonds/front-end duration. Contradictory evidence also comes from arc 197: CFTC net shorts for 2Y remain at high levels (-1,359,521 contracts), and ETFs have already shown some excess returns (price_in_excess +1.29%), which limit further upward potential and dampen confidence increases. Based on fresh and verifiable macro/auction evidence, maintain a moderately high level of confidence. |
| 2026-08-14 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 197: CFTC data shows a net short position in the speculative segment of 2Y has been covered (week-over-week +230,113), the implied Fed funds rate path has shifted downward (approximately 3.71%), and strong demand at Treasury auctions supports lower short-term interest rates and benefits short-duration allocations. However, cautionary evidence from arc 197 also exists: the ETF has already shown some excess returns (price_in_excess +1.12%, but price_in marked as False), with net redemptions of approximately -1.96% AUM over the past 30 days and crowded short-covering in the short end (days-to-cover ≈5.44). Therefore, maintain a moderately high level of confidence while being mindful of potential pullbacks or crowding risks. |
| 2026-08-13 | Bullish lean | 0.68 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 197: the latest NFP was colder than expected, a downward shift in ZQ-implied federal funds rate (≈3.75%), and net short covering at the speculative end of CFTC 2Y, which collectively support lower short-term interest rate pricing and favor short-duration allocations. Reverse evidence to watch includes ETF net redemptions over the past 30 days (≈-2.06% AUM) and rising short-term shorts/payables indicating crowded positions; additionally, SHY has shown a slight price excess (+1.30%) but with price_in marked as False, suggesting that primary non-price evidence is not yet fully reflected in prices. Based on the recent confirming signal from arc 197 (days_since_event=2, excess_sigma=+0.82, strengthen_streak=1), maintain a bullish stance with medium to high confidence. |
| 2026-08-12 | Bullish lean | 0.65 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 197: the latest NFP was colder than expected, a downward shift in ZQ-implied Fed path (≈3.75%), and CFTC reports showing net short covering in 2Y speculative positions with strong demand for short-end auctions; these factors collectively support a downward bias in short-term interest rate pricing and benefit short-duration positioning. Reverse evidence to watch out for includes recent ETF net redemptions (-2.06% AUM over 30 days) and rising short-term shorts/cover times (indicated by short_interest and days-to-cover suggesting crowding), but the price_in flag is marked as False, indicating that this rate preference has not yet been fully absorbed by prices. Given that arc 197 is “confirming” and the event is recent (≤7 days) with excess_sigma aligning with direction, confidence levels are elevated to moderately high. |
| 2026-08-11 | Bullish lean | 0.48 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 197 (us_debt_crisis): the latest CFTC report shows net short positions for 2y have been unwound to extreme levels (crowding relief), ZQ implied Fed path has shifted down (approximately 3.63%), and strong demand at short-term Treasury auctions supports rising demand for short-duration bonds. Offsetting factors include ETF net redemptions since July 20 (approximately -2.03% AUM) and arc 197 describing its state as decaying, which brings confidence down to a moderate-low level. Given the current calmness in market risk indicators (VIX term ratio approximately 0.80), confidence is not elevated to a high level. |
| 2026-08-10 | Bullish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 197 (us_debt_crisis): the latest CFTC 2y net short has been largely unwound from extremes (indicating reduced crowdedness in bets on rising front-end rates), ZQ implied Fed-path downshifted to approximately 3.632%, and strong demand for short-term Treasury auctions, which support an increase in short-duration demand. Offsetting factors include ETF net redemptions since July 20th (approximately -2.03% AUM) and arc 197 described as decaying, leading to a reduction in confidence; additionally, the primary supportive arc 468 has been closed, removing this strong driver and necessitating cautious overall sentiment. Conclusion: Bullish but with moderate-low confidence, further monitoring of CFTC positions and fund flows is needed. |
| 2026-08-09 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a bullish (short duration) stance primarily driven by arc 468. Non-price quantitative evidence supports this: CFTC 2y net shorts have significantly reduced from highs, short-term interest rate pricing has fallen due to the August 7 non-farm payroll results missing expectations substantially (ZQ implied Fed path ≈3.632%), and strong demand for short-term Treasury auctions also indicates rising demand for short-duration risk. Contrary evidence includes net redemptions of SHY since July 20 (≈-2.03% AUM) and arc 197 marked as decaying, which need to be continuously monitored but are not yet sufficient to reverse the overall bullish judgment. |
| 2026-08-08 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | Driven by arc 468 (consumer_credit_delinquency_us), I have shifted my judgment on SHY from neutral/biased bullish to slightly bullish: non-price quantitative evidence – significant net short cover in CFTC 2y, substantial underperformance of the August 7 non-farm payrolls leading to a pricing of lower short-term interest rates, downward adjustment in the implied federal funds rate path, and strong demand for short-term Treasury auctions – collectively form a substantive reason for increased demand for short-duration duration. Although arc 197 (us_debt_crisis) is marked as decaying, it also records significant net short cover and robust auction demand, serving as secondary support; contrary evidence includes net redemptions of SHY since July 20 (-2.03% AUM), which need to be continuously monitored. There is currently no price_in tag, so the bullish bias remains with moderate confidence. |
| 2026-08-07 | Neutral | 0.00 | No active arcs provided direction (all closed/contested or no arc coverage). |
| 2026-08-06 | Bullish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a positive lean on SHY, primarily based on non-price evidence from arc 468: CFTC shows net short covering in 2y futures, recent bid-to-cover ratio for 2y Treasury auctions rising to 3.37 indicating increased demand at the short end, and implied Fed funds rate path declining to around 3.63%, all supporting a decline in short-term rates and benefiting short-term Treasuries. This argument is currently decaying (days_since_event=12.1, strengthen_streak=2), with the market partially factored in (price_in_excess≈+0.49% and recent net outflows from funds), while absolute net shorts remain a primary tail risk. Confidence remains moderate at around 0.60 unless arc 468 shows clear reversal signals such as significant changes in net positions or auction demand, otherwise the previous positive conclusion will not be altered. |
| 2026-08-05 | Bullish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY, primarily based on non-price evidence from arc 468 (US household credit default pressure). The driving factors include CFTC data showing net short coverings in 2y bonds (reduction in net shorts), a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.37 for recent 2y Treasury auctions indicating strong demand, and a downward shift in the market-implied Fed funds rate path (approximately 3.63%), all supporting a decline in short-term interest rates and favorable conditions for short-term bond demand. This argument is decaying (days_since_event=11.1) and the market has partially absorbed these factors (price_in_excess≈+0.49%, with fund outflows of -2.48% over the past 5/30 days), thus maintaining a moderate level of confidence. |
| 2026-08-04 | Bullish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY. The driver comes from non-price evidence in arc 468: the CFTC report shows a reduction in net short positions for 2y bonds, an increase in bid-to-cover ratio and strong auction demand for recent 2y Treasury auctions, as well as a downward shift in market-implied Fed funds rate paths, all supporting a decline in short-term interest rates and benefiting short-term bond demand. Note that this argument is decaying (days_since_event=10.1, strengthen_streak=2), and the quantitative data from the same snapshot shows fund outflows over the past 5/30 days (fund_flow_5d_pct_aum=-2.48), which contradicts expected inflows, indicating that some of the impact has been partially absorbed by the market or there is profit-taking. Therefore, maintain moderate confidence level. |
| 2026-08-03 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a bullish stance on SHY. The driving factors come from non-price evidence of arc 468 (consumer_credit_delinquency_us): CFTC reports show a reduction in net short positions for 2y, an increase in the bid-to-cover ratio and strong demand at recent 2y Treasury auctions, and a downward shift in the market-implied Fed funds rate path—all supporting a decline in short-term interest rates and increased demand for short-term Treasuries. Note that this argument is decaying (days_since_event=9, strengthen_streak=2), with freshness slightly reduced but not yet fully; price_in marked as False indicates that this momentum has not been fully priced into the market. |
| 2026-08-02 | Bullish lean | 0.57 | Driven by arc 468 (consumer_credit_delinquency_us), a bullish stance on SHY is maintained. The rationale is based on non-price evidence: CFTC reports show partial short covering for the 2y, recent Treasury auction bid-to-cover ratios have improved with strong demand, and implied Fed funds rate paths suggest a downward shift, supporting favorable risk/demand dynamics in short-term Treasuries (price_in marked as False, indicating that the move may not yet be fully priced). However, this support comes from a single, nascent argument with relatively low weight, hence only a lean bullish stance is given rather than strong optimism. |
| 2026-08-01 | Mixed | 0.48 | Conclusion: SHY is given a mixed (neutral/bidirectional) call because there are supply-side evidence pushing yields higher from the short end, as well as demand-side evidence supporting risk aversion/interest rate retracement. The direction has not converged. The primary non-price evidence supporting a short position comes from arc 197: CFTC 2y positions remain persistently net short, an implied upward path for Fed funds rates, and large-scale new issuance of government debt, collectively forming a transmission chain for supply-side pressures and yield increases at the short end. However, this arc state is decaying, indicating weakening strength. The driver behind the change in this assessment is arc 468 (consumer_credit_delinquency_us): it shows that consumer credit stress may lead to risk aversion inflows, increased auction demand (auction=strong_demand, bid-to-cover ratio rising), and a slightly downward path for implied rates, making the bullish and bearish evidence more comparable. It is also important to note that CFTC net shorts remain large, signaling potential crowded trade and contrarian risks. |
| 2026-07-31 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a bearish stance (short SHY). The main driver comes from non-price evidence of arc 197 (US Debt Crisis): CFTC 2y futures show persistent large net shorts, the implied Fed funds rate on an upward path in the market, and substantial new issuance contributing to a clear transmission chain for supply/yield curve pressures at the short end. The opposing argument from arc 468 (consumer credit default pressure) points to rising demand for safe-haven assets supporting short-term Treasuries, but this remains nascent with COT net shorts still significant; even if auction demand improves, it is unlikely to fully offset supply pressures. Therefore, the overall stance is bearish with a low-to-moderate confidence level. |
| 2026-07-30 | Bearish lean | 0.55 | Maintain a bearish (short SHY) view primarily based on arc 197’s non-price evidence: CFTC 2y futures show significant net shorts, the market-implied Fed funds rate rising to ~3.715%, and large new issuance in the fiscal sector forming a clear upward supply chain for short-term rates. These supply and pricing signals collectively point to an increase in short-term yields, which is fundamentally bearish for short-term Treasury ETFs. However, it should be noted that this arc describes itself as decaying with limited statistical signal strength (excess_sigma = -0.59), and the ETF has already partially factored into this window (price_in_excess = +0.77%), thus maintaining a moderate to low level of confidence. |
| 2026-07-29 | Bearish lean | 0.48 | 将立场由偏多转为偏空，主要因为之前驱动偏多的 arc 468（consumer_credit_delinquency_us）已被排除，移除了对短端的避险/降息定价支撑。剩余的主导线索为 arc 197，其非价格证据——CFTC 2y 期货显著净空、市场隐含的 Fed funds 路径上行以及财政大幅增发带来的供给压力——仍构成短端收益率上行、做空 SHY 的因果链。但须指出 arc 197 自述为 decaying 且统计信号有限（excess_sigma=-0.59），且价格已部分计入（price_in_excess=+0.77%），因此总体置信度维持中等偏低。 |
| 2026-07-28 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a bullish stance, primarily driven by non-price evidence from ARC 468 (US consumer/housing credit stress): the high probability of an increase in credit card delinquency rates (≈0.86) as predicted by the market, along with a significant decline in June home sales, indicating rising consumption pressure and potentially leading to risk-on buying for short-term Treasury bonds and pricing in rate cuts. Counter-evidence comes from ARC 197 (US debt/geopolitical conflict), which shows CFTC net shorts for 2-year Treasuries and recent Middle Eastern conflicts that have raised oil prices, possibly offsetting some of the short-term risk-off effects through inflation or term premium increases; however, these counter-signals are not yet strong enough to overturn the non-price-driven evidence from ARC 468. Given that both leads are recent events and ARC 468 remains nascent with limited evidence, maintain moderate confidence. |
| 2026-07-27 | Bullish lean | 0.57 | Maintain a bullish bias, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 468: a high probability (≈0.86) of an increase in credit card default rates is predicted in the market, coupled with a significant decline in June home sales pending figures, indicating rising consumer pressure and potentially increasing demand for short-term Treasury bonds as a safe haven. This support remains nascent and is weakened by opposing evidence from arc 197: CFTC reports show net short positions for 2-year Treasuries, and recent Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions have pushed oil prices higher, which may offset some of the safe-haven buying through inflation or term premium increases. Therefore, confidence remains low to medium. |
| 2026-07-26 | Bullish lean | 0.55 | Maintain a positive bias, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 468: the high probability (≈0.86) of an increase in credit card default rates is forecasted to indicate rising consumer stress, which logically translates into lower risk and favoring short-term treasuries. Counter-evidence comes from arc 197: CFTC reports show net shorts in 2-year futures (speculative bets on higher front-end interest rates), and recent geopolitical conflicts have pushed up oil prices, potentially offsetting some of the safe-haven buying by raising inflation or term premiums, thereby limiting confidence. Given that the main driver remains nascent and there is a clear contradiction with COT/geo-political risks, maintain a positive bias but with moderate confidence, consistent with previous conclusions. |