SLV iShares Silver Trust
Bearish lean Confidence 0.66 Regime High-vol · off low
Maintain a mild bearish stance on SLV: the driving factors come from the immediate confirmation signal of arc 280 (metals_price_demand). Non-price evidence shows that the 10-year real interest rate has risen over the past 20 days (real 10y ≈2.91%, +31bp), CFTC/COT net longs have significantly retreated to a lower range (cot_net=+7,528), and recent US production/price data are relatively strong, collectively increasing the opportunity cost of holding interest-free precious metals and forming a basis for medium-term downside. Secondary arc 78 moves in the same direction but is more outdated with price_in=True (indicating that some of the decline may have been factored in) and limited net inflows only providing short-term support, thus overall maintaining a mild bearish stance with moderate confidence.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Bearish lean | 0.66 | Maintain a mild bearish stance on SLV: the driving factors come from the immediate confirmation signal of arc 280 (metals_price_demand). Non-price evidence shows that the 10-year real interest rate has risen over the past 20 days (real 10y ≈2.91%, +31bp), CFTC/COT net longs have significantly retreated to a lower range (cot_net=+7,528), and recent US production/price data are relatively strong, collectively increasing the opportunity cost of holding interest-free precious metals and forming a basis for medium-term downside. Secondary arc 78 moves in the same direction but is more outdated with price_in=True (indicating that some of the decline may have been factored in) and limited net inflows only providing short-term support, thus overall maintaining a mild bearish stance with moderate confidence. |
| 2026-10-14 | Bearish lean | 0.48 | Maintain a mild bearish stance on SLV. The primary reasons are the non-price evidence from arcs 78 and 280: an increase in the 10-year real interest rate (raising the cost of holding precious metals without interest) and a significant withdrawal of net long positions in CFTC COT, which form a basis for silver prices to decline over the medium term. However, both arcs are nascent, with days_since_event > 14 and strengthen_streak=0, and arc 78 is marked with price_in=True (indicating that part of the decline has already been factored into the market), thus limiting confidence below 0.60. |
| 2026-10-12 | Bearish lean | 0.45 | Maintain a mild bearish view on SLV, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 78: CFTC COT net longs have fallen back to around +7,528 contracts (indicating reduced speculative/fund interest), and the real rate (real 10y ≈2.87%) has risen, increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing precious metals. Note that this support signal is somewhat outdated (days_since_event=24, strengthen_streak=0), and arc indicates price_in=True, meaning part of the path has been factored into the market, thus limiting confidence. Overall, based on non-price evidence from arc 78, maintain a bearish stance but with low to medium confidence and be wary of new confirming data. |
| 2026-10-11 | Bearish lean | 0.45 | I maintain a mildly bearish view on SLV, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 78: CFTC COT net longs have retreated from their highs (current cot_net ≈7,528 contracts) and real interest rates are rising (real 10y ≈2.87%, up in the recent ten-day period), which will increase the cost of holding uninterest-bearing precious metals and weaken bullish fundamentals. Note that this arc is outdated (days_since_event=23 and strengthen_streak=0), and price_in is marked as True (partially factored into the market), so I lower my confidence and remain mildly bearish. |
| 2026-10-09 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | I maintain a mild bearish stance on SLV, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 78. Arc 78 highlights an upward move in 10-year real interest rates (real 10y = 2.91%, +48bp over 20 days) and a significant pullback in CFTC net long positions (net long 7,614 contracts with -43% week-over-week), which increase the holding cost of interest-free precious metals and weaken the bullish base. Note that this arc has been ongoing for 21 days with strengthen_streak = 0, and price_in is marked as True (partially factored into the market), thus supporting evidence is somewhat outdated and partially reflected in prices. This leads me to lower my confidence and indicate that prices have already partially incorporated this direction. |
| 2026-10-07 | Bearish lean | 0.54 | I maintain a mild bearish stance on SLV, primarily based on non-price evidence from arc 280: CFTC COT (silver) net longs have significantly retreated from highs, and recent increases in 10-year real interest rates have raised the opportunity cost of interest-free precious metals and weakened bullish fundamentals. Quantitative evidence from arc 78 (COT at lower range levels, high real interest rates, and no risk premium in funding/IV) aligns with this direction. Note that both arcs are approximately 19-21 days old and marked by price_in, indicating that some of the decline has already been factored into the market, thus lowering confidence intentionally. |
| 2026-10-06 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | I remain mildly bearish on SLV, primarily based on non-price evidence from arc 280. The CFTC COT (silver) net long has significantly retreated to around 7,614 contracts from a high, and the 10-year real interest rate remains relatively high and near-term rising (≈2.88%), which increases the opportunity cost of interest-free precious metals and weakens the basis for long positions. Implied volatility is at extremely low levels (IV rank ≈2%), and this decline has been marked by price_in, indicating that some of the fall has already been factored in; with the event being about 20 days old and having limited weight/freshness, a mild bearish stance is maintained but with constrained confidence. |
| 2026-10-05 | Bearish lean | 0.52 | Combining both arcs, I remain mildly bearish on SLV. The driving evidence comes from the non-price signals of CFTC COT net longs significantly retreating from highs (currently 7,614 contracts, weekly -43%), and the recent rise in 10-year real interest rates (as_of 2026-10-05 real rate ≈2.88%, 20d increase ≈+43bp), which increases the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing precious metals and weakens the bullish position foundation; low implied volatility in options (IV rank ≈2%) also reduces market readiness for hedging or reversals. Note that both arcs are marked with price_in=True, indicating that some downside has already been priced into the market, so I am lowering my confidence accordingly. |
| 2026-10-04 | Bearish lean | 0.48 | I maintain a mild bearish stance on SLV. The primary driver is arc 280 (metals_price_demand): non-price indicators show an increase of approximately +49bp in the 10-year real interest rate over the past 20 days, which raises the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing precious metals; additionally, COT still shows a net long position but not extreme, and option implied volatility is at low levels, supporting the risk of silver price correction. It should be noted that this arc signaled 18 days ago (over 14 days) and has a strengthen_streak=0, and price_in_excess has been marked as True, indicating that some downside has already been priced in, thus confidence is cautiously reduced (<0.60). |
| 2026-10-03 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | Based on the combined arcs, I maintain a mild bearish stance on SLV. The primary driver is the non-price evidence provided by arc 280 (metals_price_demand): the 10Y real interest rate has risen by approximately +49bp in the past 20 days (as of 2026-10-02), increasing the opportunity cost of holding interest-free precious metals and tending to suppress silver prices. The decline in COT from arc 266 and funding flows also do not support significant risk-on buying, further tilting towards downside. However, two points need to be noted: first, the price_in indicator for arc 280 suggests that some of the downward pressure has already been reflected in the price; second, arc 78, which was decisive in the previous version, has now turned decaying/excluded, leading to a decrease in overall confidence and making support relatively outdated. Therefore, I provide only a mild bearish outlook with a confidence level below 0.60. |
| 2026-10-02 | Bearish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a mild negative bias towards SLV. The primary driver remains the non-price evidence provided by arc 78: real interest rates have risen significantly over the past 20 days (approximately +49bp, real rate around 2.9%), increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals; meanwhile, implied volatility in options is at historical lows, CFTC net long positions are not crowded and there has been no sustained large inflows, creating structural downward pressure. It should be noted that arc 78 is marked as price_in (price_in_excess was identified), indicating that some of the downward movement may already be priced in, so I am increasing my bearish inclination while moderately lowering my confidence. Other arcs such as 280, 456, and 266 do not provide consistent strong counter non-price evidence to change the overall negative bias. |
| 2026-10-01 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a mild bearish stance on SLV: primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 78 - the 10-year real interest rate has risen significantly over the past 20 days (approximately +48–51bp, real interest rate ~2.85–2.9%), increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing precious metals. Additionally, CFTC net long positions are only mildly bullish (+13,309 contracts) and option IV is at low levels, contributing to structural downward pressure. Note that arc 78 has been flagged as price_in, indicating that some of the downward movement may already be priced in, thus lowering confidence to medium. Other arcs (arc 456, arc 266) are currently attenuated/controversial or evidence-insufficient and do not provide sufficient counter non-price evidence to alter the overall bearish conclusion. |
| 2026-09-30 | Bearish lean | 0.48 | Maintain a mild bearish stance on SLV, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 78: the 10-year real interest rate has risen significantly over the past 20 days (≈+48–51bp, real interest rate ~2.85–2.90%), increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing precious metals; meanwhile, CFTC net positions are only mildly bullish (+13,309 contracts), option IV is at historical lows, and there has been short-term net redemption outflows from the ETF since 2026-09-22, creating structural downward pressure. Note that arc 78 has been flagged as price_in, indicating that some of the downward movement has already been factored into the market. Additionally, other arcs (arc 280, arc 266, arc 456) remain contentious or are in decline or lack sufficient evidence, thus reducing confidence to a low-medium level. Based on these non-price quantitative evidences, maintain a mild bearish stance but proceed with caution. |
| 2026-09-29 | Bearish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a mild bearish stance on SLV, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 78: the 10-year real interest rate has risen significantly over the past 20 days to around 2.85% (+51bp), increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing precious metals; meanwhile, CFTC net longs are only median, and there have been net redemptions from ETFs since September 22, 2026, with option IV at historical lows, creating structural downward pressure. It is important to note that prices have already partially factored in (arc 78 marked price_in_excess has flagged), and the other arcs (arcs 280, 266) remain conflicting or low-confidence, providing no non-price evidence to change direction. Therefore, maintain a mild bearish stance but lower confidence to reflect partial pricing and evidence divergence. |
| 2026-09-27 | Bearish lean | 0.55 | Maintain a mild bearish stance on SLV. The primary driver comes from independent non-price evidence from arc 78: the 10-year real interest rate has risen significantly in the past 20 days to around 2.85%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding interest-free precious metals, and CFTC silver net longs are not yet crowded (arc 78). However, it should be noted that some of this downward momentum has already been factored in (arc 78 marked price_in_excess = -12.19%, flagged), and short-term net creations (+287M) in the ETF sector along with historically low option IV (see arc 280/600) will dampen the efficiency of significant short-term declines, thus remaining mildly bearish with moderate-low confidence. |
| 2026-09-26 | Bearish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a mild bearish stance on SLV, primarily driven by independent non-price evidence from arc 78: the 10-year real interest rate has risen significantly over the past 20 days to around 2.85%, increasing the holding cost of precious metals with no yield; CFTC net longs are in the median and not notably crowded, supporting potential downside. Note execution constraints—arc 78's price_in has already been partially factored in (price_in_excess -12.19%), and recent net minting along with extremely low option IV reduces the likelihood of a short-term downleg, thus slightly lowering confidence to reflect partial pricing and micro-liquidity headwinds. |
| 2026-09-25 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a mild negative bias towards SLV, primarily driven by independent non-price evidence from Arc 78: the real 10-year interest rate has risen significantly over the past 20 days to around 2.6% (≈+25bp), increasing the holding cost of precious metals with no yield; meanwhile, CFTC net long positions are at lower percentiles and have seen a weekly decline, reducing structural bullish strength. Clear limiting factors are also evident: SLV has recently experienced net creation/funds inflows and implied volatility from options is at historical lows (Arc 78/Arc 280), which would limit short-term downside and require strict position and stop-loss management. Counter-evidence such as the bullish view from Arc 456 has weakened and low confidence, thus not constituting an independent non-price driver sufficient to reverse direction. |
| 2026-09-24 | Bearish lean | 0.55 | Maintain a mild negative stance on SLV (lean_negative), primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 78: the 10-year real interest rate has risen significantly over the past 20 days (about 2.6% and +25bp), increasing the holding cost of precious metals with no yield; CFTC COT net long positions are in low percentiles and have seen a weekly decline, weakening the structural strength of bullish scenarios; the market's prediction for sustained risk premium is also relatively low. Arc 456 proposed a bullish scenario but it has weakened and confidence is extremely low, while other arcs are mostly contested or nascent, failing to provide independent and strong non-price counter-evidence. Note that this is a contrarian judgment against current risk (REGIME shows risk_on / SPY 20d slightly up), with arc 78 noting price_in has been flagged (price_in_excess marked) and accompanied by recent net redemptions and extremely low option IV, which may have partially priced in or dampened downside risks, thus slightly reducing confidence from the previous 0.60 to 0.55. |
| 2026-09-23 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a mild bearish stance on SLV. Mainly driven by non-price evidence from arc 78: the actual 10-year real interest rate has risen significantly in the past 20 days (around 2.6-2.7%, +20-33bp), increasing the opportunity cost of holding precious metals without yield; CFTC COT net long positions are at low percentiles and there are clear signs of weekly drawdowns, with market forecasts not supporting a sustained risk premium, forming a structural downside chain. Note that prices have already partially reflected this (arc 78 marked price_in has been noted), and recent minor net redemptions and extremely low option IV have dampened confidence in immediately increasing positions; arc 456 advocates for a long position but is decaying with very low confidence, insufficient to alter the conclusion. Suggest light positioning with event-driven management and short stop-losses. |
| 2026-09-21 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a mild bearish stance on the silver ETF (SLV). Mainly driven by independent non-price evidence provided by arc 78 (US-Iran flare-up): the 10-year real interest rate has significantly risen on a 20-day scale (about 2.6%, around +~25–27bp), increasing the opportunity cost of holding interest-free precious metals; meanwhile, CFTC COT net longs have retreated and SLV experienced net redemptions starting from 2026-09-14 (≈-$183M), adding structural downward pressure. Note that part of this short signal has already been reflected in price (arc 78/600 marked as price_in), and there is a small-weighted short-term bullish event (arc 456). Therefore, the confidence level is moderate and is dampened by the 'priced-in' factor. |
| 2026-09-20 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a mild bearish stance on the silver ETF (SLV). Mainly driven by non-price evidence: arc 78 indicates that 10-year real interest rates remain high and continue to rise, increasing the opportunity cost of holding interest-free precious metals; arc 600 and arc 280 report a significant decline in CFTC COT net longs (≈+13,124 contracts), recent net outflows from SLV, and extremely low option IV, which constitute structural downward pressure. Note that part of the short-term decline has already been factored into the market (arc 78/600 marked price_in), and given the high probability of a quick resolution to conflicts, confidence remains moderate without being increased. |
| 2026-09-19 | Bearish lean | 0.60 | Maintain a mild bearish stance on silver ETF (SLV) for the next 1-3 months. The driving non-price evidence comes from arc 78 (us_iran_2026_war): the latest snapshot shows real interest rates rising to around 2.68%, increasing the holding cost of interest-free precious metals and creating a structural downward pressure; meanwhile, arcs 600 and 280 indicate a significant decline in CFTC net long positions (approximately 13,124 contracts), recent net outflows from ETFs, and option IV at extremely low levels, suggesting weakening speculative/fundamental support and reinforcing the bearish argument. It should be noted that several arcs are marked as price_in (short-term partial declines/adjustments have already been reflected in prices), so some of the downward pressure may already be factored in, hence maintaining a moderate confidence level (approximately 0.60). |
| 2026-09-18 | Bearish lean | 0.52 | Maintain a mild bearish stance on SLV for the 1-3 month horizon. The non-price evidence driving this is arc 78 (us_iran_2026_war): the latest snapshot shows real interest rates rising to around 2.6–2.68%, increasing the holding cost of interest-free silver and creating medium-term downward fundamental pressure. It should be noted that arc 78 is also marked as price_in, with price_in_excess already negative indicating some downside has been priced in. Additionally, CFTC COT (referenced by arc 280/581) shows extreme net long positions at historical highs, increasing the risk of a squeeze and volatility. Therefore, confidence has been downgraded from last time, and it is advised to trade with small positions and strict risk management. |
| 2026-09-17 | Bearish lean | 0.62 | The one-to-three-month outlook has been flipped from mildly bullish to mildly bearish, driven by arc 78 (us_iran_2026_war) upgrading to a confirmed state and providing a clear non-price causal chain: the 10-year real interest rate rising to ~2.6% increases the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing silver, creating medium-term downward fundamental pressure. Counter-evidence includes CFTC/COT data (see arcs 280/581) showing net long positions at +14,386 contracts and OI at historical highs, indicating strong upward risk from the position side; additionally, arc 78 is marked as price_in (already priced in) on the short side, suggesting that some of the decline has been absorbed by the market and increasing the risk of a squeeze. In summary: biased towards the bearish side due to the confirmation of arc 78 and increased weight of new evidence, but with a small position, strict risk management, and attention to COT data, real interest rates, and price_in probes as post-hoc trigger/stop-loss conditions. |
| 2026-09-16 | Bullish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on SLV for 1-3 months. The main non-price driver is evidence from the position side (see arc 280: CFTC/COT shows net long +14,386 contracts and OI at high levels), which constitutes a substantial bullish foundation; however, note opposing non-price evidence (see arc 78: 10-year real interest rates have risen to around 2.6%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing precious metals) as well as multiple arcs marked as price_in (some price movements are already factored in), thus lowering confidence and suggesting a light position with COT and real interest rate serving as posterior triggers and strict risk management. |
| 2026-09-15 | Bullish lean | 0.52 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on SLV for 1-3 months, primarily based on independent non-price evidence: CFTC/COT shows net long commitments (see arc 280: net long +14,386 contracts and OI up), providing a bullish basis in terms of positioning. Hedging/restriction factors come from interest rates and policy paths (see arc 78: 10-year real interest rate around 2.55% and higher probabilities of short-term rate hikes), which increase the cost of holding silver; additionally, some of the gains have been factored in (see arc 456's price_in +8.73%), thus limiting confidence. Overall, maintain a mild bullish stance with low to medium confidence (advising light positions and closely monitoring interest rate movements and COT changes). |
| 2026-09-14 | Bullish lean | 0.47 | Maintain a mild bullish stance on SLV for 1-3 months, primarily non-price driven by the CFTC/COT net long expansion from the arc 280 / arc 581 reports (net long +14,386 contracts and OI increase), which constitutes an independent basis for positioning/short covering. This bullish view is substantially offset by the arc 78 hint of monetary policy tightening/real interest rate rise (10Y real interest rate ≈2.55% and increased likelihood of short-term rate hikes); multiple arcs also indicate price_in (with some upward movement already factored in), thus reducing confidence and necessitating cautious position management. Overall: a bullish foundation exists but is constrained by interest rate headwinds and price-inclusion, maintaining a slightly bullish stance with low to medium confidence. |
| 2026-09-13 | Bullish lean | 0.57 | Maintain a lean positive stance on SLV for the next 1-3 months, primarily based on non-price quantitative evidence provided by arc 581 (US Debt Crisis): CFTC COT net long has expanded to +14,386 contracts with OI=103,250, indicating new long exposure at the market position level, which is a separate bullish reason from price. The reasons for being slightly lower include: first, arc 456 has already priced in some of the rally (excess return window ≈+10.5%, price_in=True), and second, several quant headwinds—10Y real interest rate rising to ≈2.55% and low historical option IV percentile (iv_rank 8%)—have dampened confidence. Therefore, a mild positive stance is given but below the previously higher-confidence assessment, with explicit mention of the risk from arc 456 being price-in. |
| 2026-09-12 | Bullish lean | 0.63 | I am slightly bullish on SLV for the next 1-3 months (lean_positive), primarily driven by arc 581 (US Debt Crisis): this arc has shown a strengthening signal in the past 7 days (strengthen_streak=1), with CFTC silver net long positions expanding to +14,386 contracts and OI at 103,250, indicating support from new non-price positions rather than just price momentum. The offset comes from arc 280/456 showing 'partially priced in' (price_in=True) and the structural headwind of a 10-year real interest rate around 2.46%; it is also worth noting that the high option IV previously attributed to arc 280 has been updated/reconciled by more recent quantitative snapshots (iv_rank low). Overall, while the expansion in non-price positions (COT/OI evidence from arc 581) justifies a slight upgrade from neutral to slightly bullish, the partial pricing in and the interest rate headwind keep it from being a strong buy. |
| 2026-09-11 | Neutral | 0.30 | Maintain neutral stance. Non-price quantitative evidence is offsetting and lacks a recent actionable one-sided signal: arc 581 (US Debt Crisis) shows CFTC silver net longs as positive but with weekly sequential retracement, failing to form sustained bullish positioning; arcs 456 and 280 indicate that most of the upside has been priced in (price_in annotated), and a 10-year real rate of approximately 2.46% constitutes a structural headwind for silver. Therefore, it is not advisable to establish one-sided positions over the next 1-3 months unless there is a clear and quantifiable non-price confirmation signal. |