SLV iShares Silver Trust
Bullish lean Confidence 0.18 Regime High-vol · at high
Maintain a short-term bullish stance on SLV but significantly reduce confidence (direction based on non-price evidence rather than momentum). The driving non-price evidence from arc 280 includes net inflows of approximately +1.36% AUM in SLV's net redemptions over the past 30 days, and an increase of +11,158 contracts in CFTC silver net long positions, indicating ongoing real demand and net bullishness; however, this bullish logic has been partially realized by the market (price_in marked, window excess return +10.93%), and rising 10-year real interest rates along with low option IV constitute structural constraints. Additionally, arc 78 previously provided substantial support (us_iran_2026_war) has been removed or is now contested, thereby reducing overall support, so maintain a bullish stance but with low confidence and caution against the risk of being 'priced in'.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Bullish lean | 0.18 | Maintain a short-term bullish stance on SLV but significantly reduce confidence (direction based on non-price evidence rather than momentum). The driving non-price evidence from arc 280 includes net inflows of approximately +1.36% AUM in SLV's net redemptions over the past 30 days, and an increase of +11,158 contracts in CFTC silver net long positions, indicating ongoing real demand and net bullishness; however, this bullish logic has been partially realized by the market (price_in marked, window excess return +10.93%), and rising 10-year real interest rates along with low option IV constitute structural constraints. Additionally, arc 78 previously provided substantial support (us_iran_2026_war) has been removed or is now contested, thereby reducing overall support, so maintain a bullish stance but with low confidence and caution against the risk of being 'priced in'. |
| 2026-08-22 | Bullish lean | 0.28 | Maintain a short-term lean positive stance on SLV. Non-price driven by the CFTC silver net long +11,158 contracts from arc 78 and near 30-day ETF net redemptions inflow of approximately +1.36% AUM from arc 280 report, indicating both real demand and speculative net longs are still present. However, both arguments are in decline and marked with price_in (partially absorbed by the market), coupled with a 10-year real interest rate of ≈2.41%, which constitutes a structural headwind. Therefore, lower confidence is reflected to account for realized information and limited upward potential. |
| 2026-08-21 | Bullish lean | 0.30 | Maintain a short-term positive bias towards SLV. Non-price indicators are the main drivers: CFTC silver net longs at arc 78 of +11,158 contracts and ETF net inflows over the past 30 days (≈+1.36% AUM) at arc 280 indicate that both real demand and speculation remain positive. Both arguments are in decline and marked with price_in, indicating that some of the rally has been absorbed by the market; additionally, the rise in 10-year real interest rates and the forecasted market's higher probability of a ceasefire present clear headwinds, so confidence is reduced to reflect realized information and structural resistance. |
| 2026-08-20 | Bullish lean | 0.32 | Maintain a short-term bullish lean on SLV due to dominant non-price evidence still favoring net long positions: CFTC silver net long +11,158 contracts at arc 78 with near 30-day net redemption inflows into SLV (approximately +1.36% AUM), and support from redemption/inventory data over arc 280 reinforcing bullish demand. Both arcs are in a decaying state and marked as price_in True, indicating that some of the upward movement has been absorbed by the market; meanwhile, the 10-year real interest rate at about 2.41% (increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing precious metals) and an anticipated rise in market expectations for a ceasefire present clear headwinds, thus reducing confidence to reflect realized and structural interest-rate resistance. |
| 2026-08-19 | Bullish lean | 0.38 | Maintain a short-term bullish stance on SLV, but with reduced confidence compared to previously. The driving non-price evidence from arc 78 (geopolitical/hedge path: CFTC silver net long +11,158 contracts, ETF inflows of approximately +1.36% AUM in the past 30 days) and arc 280 (precious metals demand/redemption flow: sustained net redemption inflows) still support a bullish position; however, both arguments are in a decaying state with price_in=True (part of the gains have been absorbed by the market), coupled with an increase in 10y real interest rates (≈2.41%) and low option IV reducing potential for excess returns going forward. Therefore, maintain a bullish but cautious stance. |
| 2026-08-18 | Bullish lean | 0.50 | Based on the non-price evidence provided by arc 78 and arc 280, we maintain a short-term bullish stance on SLV. The driving factors are the quantitative non-price signals from arc 78 (geopolitical risk/hedge path) and arc 280 (repricing of precious metal demand): CFTC silver net long +11,158 contracts, net subscriptions/redeemings for SLV since August 7, 2026, amounting to approximately +$342M (+1.06% AUM), a positive inflow of 1.32% over the past 30 days, and continued follow-through from central banks/investors. However, both arguments are currently marked as decaying with price_in=True (some upward movement has already been factored in), and option IV and hedge indicators are not expensive. Therefore, we maintain a moderate level of confidence. |
| 2026-08-17 | Bullish lean | 0.48 | Maintain a short-term bullish stance on SLV. Support comes from non-price evidence: arcs 78 and 280 show net inflows of approximately +$342M (1.06% AUM) for the ETF since August 7, 2026, with CFTC silver net long positions still at +11,158 contracts, indicating real money and position support re-pricing demand (non-price basis). However, it should be noted that prices have already been partially factored in (arc 280 price_in=True and arc 280 excess_sigma is positive but reflected in the price), while arc 78's excess_sigma is negative and both arguments are currently marked as decaying. Thus, immediate confidence is kept at a moderate level. |
| 2026-08-16 | Bullish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a short-term bullish stance on SLV, primarily based on arc 280 non-price evidence: ETF net redemptions have flowed in by approximately +$342M (+1.06% AUM) since 2026-08-07, and CFTC net long positions remain at high levels, indicating that real money and position support are re-pricing demand. The latest geopolitical triggers from arc 78 further tilt towards increased risk-on buying, but the quantitative signals of this event are not entirely consistent (excess_sigma is partially reflected in prices). Arc 266 also notes that a 10Y real interest rate of approximately 2.39% and low option IV will structurally inhibit risk demand. Overall, evidence is bullish with some ‘price-in’ (price_in=True) and headwinds from rates and volatility, hence maintaining a moderate-low confidence level. |
| 2026-08-15 | Bullish lean | 0.45 | Maintain a short-term bullish stance on SLV, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 280: net inflows to the ETF since August 7, 2026 (+1.06% AUM / +$342M) and CFTC showing net long positions, indicating that real money and holdings still support demand re-pricing. Note that these demand signals have been partially factored into the market (arc 280 marked price_in_excess=True), and structural headwinds from arc 266/78—10Y real interest rate ≈ 2.4% and a forecasted low probability of geopolitical conflicts—limit the sustainability of safe-haven buying, thus maintaining a low to medium confidence level. The overall risk environment remains calm (REGIME indicator), further dampening high-confidence conclusions. |
| 2026-08-14 | Bullish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a short-term bullish stance on SLV, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 280: CFTC shows net long +11,974 contracts and since August 6, 2026, the ETF has seen net inflows of redemption (≈+$153M / 0.49% AUM), indicating that positions and fund flows are supporting bullish demand in sync. Note that these demand signals have already been partially factored into prices (arc 280 marked price_in_excess=True) and structural headwinds remain—arcs 266/78 indicate an increase in the 10-year real interest rate (≈2.4%) and a low predicted market probability of large-scale conflicts between Taiwan/US and Iran, which weakens the sustainability of safe-haven buying. Considering crowded positions, price factoring, and macroeconomic headwinds, maintain a bullish stance but with lower confidence. |
| 2026-08-13 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a short-term bullish stance on SLV, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 280: CFTC shows net long +11,974 contracts and since August 6, 2026, the ETF has seen net subscription inflows (≈+$153M), indicating that positions are supported in line with fund flows. It should be noted that these demand signals have already been partially reflected in market prices (arc 280 marked price_in_excess=True), and arcs 266/78 indicate that the rise in 10Y real interest rates (≈2.4%) and a predicted lower probability of geopolitical conflicts are structural headwinds for precious metals, thus slightly reducing confidence compared to the previous version but still maintaining a moderate level. |
| 2026-08-12 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a short-term bullish stance on SLV, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 280: CFTC shows net long +11,974 contracts and since August 6, 2026, the ETF has seen net inflows of redemptions (≈+$153M), indicating that positions and fund flows are supporting a bullish stance. However, it is prudent to note that these demand signals have partially been reflected in market prices (arc 280 marked price_in_excess=True), and arcs 266/78 indicate an upward trend in the 10Y real interest rate with a lower probability of geopolitical conflict in the forecasted market (geopolitical events not confirmed), which remains structurally bearish for precious metals, thus dampening confidence but still keeping it moderately high. Conclusion: While fund and position evidence supports a bullish stance, it is not decisive; attention should be paid to interest rates and new non-price confirmation signals to increase confidence. |
| 2026-08-11 | Bullish lean | 0.50 | I am inclined to be bullish on SLV, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc 280 (Metals Price & Demand): CFTC COT net long +11,974 contracts and net inflows into the ETF of approximately +$153M since 2026-08-06, indicating a simultaneous accumulation of bullish sentiment among speculators and funds. It is important to note that these signals are marked as price_in (prices have partially reflected this), and arc 266 points out that the rise in actual interest rates and low probability of conflict across the Taiwan Strait weaken the 'geopolitical risk -> buy silver' transmission chain, thus confidence is limited and caution is advised. In summary, while short-term bullishness exists, it is not aggressive; we await clearer new evidence on interest rates or fund flows to increase our confidence. |
| 2026-08-10 | Neutral | 0.22 | Maintain neutral stance. The non-price evidence from arc 266 (CFTC COT net long +11,974 contracts, at its own 100th percentile) indicates significant accumulation of bullish positions on the speculative/hedging side, but arc 78 shows that the COT net long has fallen to +9,182 contracts and is marked as price_in=True, suggesting a higher probability of market pricing for de-escalation, implying that recent price reactions may already be partially factored in; additionally, an approximate 2.4% real interest rate for 10-year bonds increases the opportunity cost of holding interest-free precious metals. Overall, the non-price evidence from both sides cancels each other out, making it unsuitable to establish a clear directional position in the short term, and maintaining a neutral stance. |
| 2026-08-09 | Neutral | 0.19 | Maintain neutral stance. Arc 266 provides significant non-price bullish evidence as the CFTC report shows silver net longs have been replenished to +11,974 contracts, which supports demand in the short term; however, the other two main arcs (arc 78 / arc 280) remain in recessionary states with price_in=True marked, indicating that part of recent price reactions has already been factored in. Additionally, an approximate 2.4% real 10-year interest rate increases the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing precious metals, thereby offsetting non-price bullish and bearish signals, which is insufficient to support a clear directional position. |
| 2026-08-08 | Neutral | 0.14 | Remain neutral. Both major arcs (Arc 78 and Arc 280) are decaying/contested: CFTC COT remains net long but has been contracting for the past four periods, failing to confirm a bullish expansion; this is the main non-price-driven evidence supporting our current neutral stance. Additionally, the 10-year real interest rate of approximately 2.4% (common quantified evidence from both arcs) increases the opportunity cost of holding silver. Both arcs are marked with price_in=True, indicating that recent price reactions have been partially factored into the market. Therefore, maintain a watchful stance with low confidence. |
| 2026-08-07 | Neutral | 0.14 | Continue with a neutral stance. Mainly driven by non-price evidence from arc 78 and arc 280: CFTC COT silver net longs remain positive (+9,182 contracts) but have been in a continuous retreat over the past four periods, with the 10-year real interest rate rising to around 2.4%, which is a structural headwind for silver (an interest-free asset); meanwhile, price_in has been marked on several arcs (indicating that positive events' prices have already been factored in), suggesting that some of the positives have been absorbed by the market and cannot be used as non-price evidence to establish a one-sided position. Given that most arcs are currently decaying or nascent, and non-price evidence does not confirm sustained demand (and may even weaken streaks), maintain a neutral stance with low confidence. |
| 2026-08-06 | Neutral | 0.14 | Maintain a neutral stance. Synthesize non-price quantitative evidence primarily (particularly the signals from arc 78 and arc 280): CFTC COT silver net long remains at +9,182 but has shown significant retracement over the past four periods, with the 10-year real interest rate rising to around 2.4%, which represents a structural headwind for silver as an interest-bearing metal. Additionally, several arcs indicate that price_in_excess has been marked (indicating a clear market reaction), meaning some of the positive factors have already been factored into the market; therefore, it is not advisable to establish one-sided positions, and continued observation remains appropriate. |
| 2026-08-05 | Neutral | 0.14 | Maintain a neutral stance. Primarily based on non-price quantitative evidence: arc 78 and arc 280 indicate that price_in has been factored into the market (flagged=True), and CFTC COT net longs have not expanded but rather retreated by +9,182 contracts (-4,019) compared to July 7, 2026. The increase in 10-year real interest rates (around 2.41-2.43%) raises holding costs for this interest-free asset, and the option IV has not shown a significant risk premium, thus lacking the |
| 2026-08-04 | Neutral | 0.14 | Maintain a neutral stance. Mainly based on non-price evidence: arc 280 and arc 78 indicate an upward movement in the 10-year real interest rate (≈2.41%–2.47%, up over the past 20 days), with implied volatility at historical lows and CFTC net long positions contracting rather than expanding, all of which represent structural headwinds for silver (an interest-free asset); and arc 78/280 indicates price_in=True, suggesting that recent downside has been factored into the market, warranting caution. Although arc 266 is relatively new and in a confirming state, its non-price snapshot (indicating low probability of market conflict, no expansion in COT, and low IV) does not support a clear bullish call on SLV, thus maintaining the neutral conclusion. |
| 2026-08-03 | Neutral | 0.12 | Maintain neutral. Mainly based on non-price evidence: arc 280/78 indicates an upward move in the 10-year real interest rate (real_10y ≈ 2.41%, +16bp over the past 20 days), with implied volatility at historical lows and CFTC net long positions not expanding (actually retreating), which structurally constitute a headwind for interest-rate-sensitive precious metals; meanwhile, arc 78/280 marks price_in=True, indicating that some of the recent downward movement has already been factored in. The new confirming arc 266, although most recent (days_since_event=0), also does not show quantified evidence of risk-on sentiment being activated (low forecasted probability of market conflict, no expansion in COT, low IV). Therefore, there is insufficient non-price evidence to change the conclusion to a clear bullish or bearish stance; we continue to maintain a watchful position with low confidence. |
| 2026-08-02 | Neutral | 0.12 | Maintain neutral. Primarily because the non-price evidence from multiple arcs, mainly Arc 280 and Arc 78, does not support a clear bullish stance: an upward move in the 10-year real interest rate (Arc 280/78's real_10y ≈ 2.41%, near-term increase), low option IV, and CFTC COT net longs that have not expanded but rather contracted all constitute structural headwinds for silver. Additionally, multiple arcs with price_in=True indicate that recent downward moves are already reflected in prices; new/unconfirmed geo-political events (such as Arc 266) lack quantifiable evidence to shift observation conclusions, thus maintaining a watchful stance with low confidence. |
| 2026-08-01 | Neutral | 0.11 | Maintain neutral. Mainly based on non-price evidence from arc 280 (metal prices and demand): the 10-year real interest rate has risen to around 2.44% (20d +26bp), increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing silver; option IV is low, and CFTC COT net longs have not expanded, which does not support a clear bullish position. The other two arcs (arc 78, arc 266) marked price_in=True indicate that recent downside has been partially priced in; the new arc 456 is nascent/decaying and does not provide tradable 'match' evidence. Therefore, continue to observe with low confidence. |
| 2026-07-31 | Neutral | 0.11 | Maintain neutral. The non-price evidence driving the judgment is still insufficient to support a one-sided position: Arc 280 indicates that the 10-year real interest rate has risen to approximately 2.44% (20d +26bp), increasing the opportunity cost of holding interest-free precious metals; meanwhile, option IV remains low and CFTC net longs have not expanded (Arc 280/78), suggesting that risk premiums and bullish expansion are insufficient to constitute a tradable signal. Prices have already partially factored in some aspects (notated as price_in by Arc 78 and Arc 266), and most arcs are decaying or nascent, hence maintaining a watchful stance while lowering confidence. |
| 2026-07-30 | Neutral | 0.14 | Maintain neutral. The non-price evidence driving the judgment comes from arc 280 and arc 78: arc 280 indicates an increase in the 10-year real interest rate to around 2.44% (20-day +26bp), which is a structural headwind for silver (SLV); arc 78, along with arc 266, marks price_in (the window of excess downside has been partially priced in) and the option ATM IV percentile at a low level, indicating that risk premiums are not being bought by the market. CFTC COT remains net long but has not expanded (dropped back ~2,500 contracts from earlier levels), suggesting a lack of consistent and tradable non-price/offset evidence to support a one-sided position, and the current risk environment does not support high-confidence bets. |
| 2026-07-29 | Neutral | 0.14 | 维持中性：各弧线（尤其 arc 78 美伊事件与 arc 280 金属需求/价格）仍为 contested，未产生一致且可交易的非价格证据来支持单边头寸。驱动判断的非价格依据包括：10Y 实际利率上升至约2.44%（近20日上行）提高持有无息贵金属的机会成本；期权层面 ATM IV 处于极低分位（近7日分位 0%），未显著抬升避险溢价；CFTC COT 虽维持净多但并未放量扩张，且 arc 78 与 arc 266 标注为 price_in（价格已部分反映下行），这三项一起抑制了对白银持续避险买盘的支持。再考虑当前相对平静的风险环境（VIX term ratio≈0.946、流动性充足），因此保持低置信度的中性立场。 |
| 2026-07-28 | Neutral | 0.18 | Maintain Neutral: The non-price evidence across the arcs is offsetting, not strong enough to form a tradable one-sided view. Specifically, arc 78 (US-Iran events) shows diplomatic easing and a rapid decline in the off-exchange crude oil market (NY -3.86%), which is a direct negative signal for risk premiums; meanwhile, the non-price headwinds indicated by arcs 280/266 are also evident – with the 10Y real interest rate rising to around 2.43% (20d +20bp) and option IV at extremely low levels (0%), this increases the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing precious metals, and the market is not paying for risk. Although CFTC COT remains slightly net long, there has been no significant volume increase to support a bullish stance. Additionally, note that price_in markers for arcs 78 and 266 indicate that these factors are already priced in, which should lower trading confidence. Therefore, continue to maintain a neutral, low-confidence stance. |
| 2026-07-27 | Neutral | 0.16 | Maintain Neutral: The non-price evidence across the arcs does not sufficiently support a clear bullish or bearish direction, as their effects offset each other. Non-price signals driving our view—such as arc 78 indicating a cooling of geopolitical events and arc 280/266 reporting an increase in the 10Y real interest rate (raising the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing precious metals by about 2.43%) along with very low option IV levels—all weaken the case for a clear bullish stance. Additionally, while CFTC COT remains mildly net long, it has not seen significant volume, which cannot alone support a bullish position. It is also worth noting that the price_in markers from arcs 78/266 (downside risks are partially priced in) should reduce trading confidence. Therefore, maintain a watchful or neutral stance for now, awaiting more tradable non-price evidence before adjusting our view. |
| 2026-07-26 | Neutral | 0.16 | Maintain Neutral: Non-price quantitative evidence has not provided a clear bullish or bearish direction – the CFTC COT remains mildly net long (+11,501), but the 10-year real interest rate has risen to around 2.43%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing precious metals. Additionally, the IV for SLV options is at extremely low levels, which partially offsets these factors. Recent geopolitical events (such as arc 78 US-Iran incident and arc 456 Red Sea attack) are potential catalysts but their non-price signals have not yet been amplified, and some downside expectations appear to be reflected in prices (note the price_in markers for arcs 78 and 266), indicating that the market has already factored in part of the risk. Continue monitoring COT for arc 280/78/456, real interest rates, and IV as key non-price indicators, adjusting direction only when tradable non-price evidence emerges. |
| 2026-07-25 | Neutral | 0.14 | Maintain Neutral: Primarily based on the non-price quantitative evidence from Arc 280 and Arc 78 (CFTC COT remains mildly net long at +11,501; however, the 10-year real interest rate has risen to around 2.4%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding uninterest-bearing precious metals, and option IV is at a low percentile), indicating that off-exchange exposures and price reactions have not synchronized to confirm persistent risk-off buying. The price_in for Arc 78 has been marked, suggesting that some of the expected decline/risk aversion has already been absorbed by market prices; while recent Arc 456 (Red Sea shipping disruptions) is a potential catalyst but its non-price quantitative signals have yet to strengthen sufficiently to alter the neutral conclusion. |