USO United States Oil Fund
Neutral Confidence 0.30 Regime High-vol · at high
Maintain neutral. On non-price evidence, arc#577 indicates a possible path of sanctions that could tighten physical supply and cites CFTC COT and backwardation in the nearby curve as support. Arc#567 similarly records narratives of supply disruptions but does not provide quantifiable data on export or shipment declines. However, hedging and funding dynamics are weakening these bullish arguments: CFTC net longs have significantly retreated from their highs, USO has experienced significant net redemptions over the last 30/90 days, and both active arcs are nascent with days_since_event >14 and strengthen_streak=0 (support is considered outdated). Additionally, prices have already partially factored in this scenario (price_in flagged=True), so maintain a neutral stance with low confidence for both short-term and medium-term outlooks.
30-day verdict history
| Date | Direction | Confidence | Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Neutral | 0.30 | Maintain neutral. On non-price evidence, arc#577 indicates a possible path of sanctions that could tighten physical supply and cites CFTC COT and backwardation in the nearby curve as support. Arc#567 similarly records narratives of supply disruptions but does not provide quantifiable data on export or shipment declines. However, hedging and funding dynamics are weakening these bullish arguments: CFTC net longs have significantly retreated from their highs, USO has experienced significant net redemptions over the last 30/90 days, and both active arcs are nascent with days_since_event >14 and strengthen_streak=0 (support is considered outdated). Additionally, prices have already partially factored in this scenario (price_in flagged=True), so maintain a neutral stance with low confidence for both short-term and medium-term outlooks. |
| 2026-10-14 | Neutral | 0.22 | Maintain neutral. The active arcs (#567, #112) signal conflict: the futures curve/backwardation supports near-month physical tightness, but non-price quantitative evidence (CFTC net longs have fallen significantly from highs, approximately -13% AUM 30-day net outflows, and predictive market underbets) points to de-leveraging of long positions and a decline in risk premiums. Additionally, the upward portion of arc #567 has already been priced into (price_in flagged=True), and neither arc is a newly confirmed signal (the event occurred around 14 days ago). Therefore, maintain neutral with low confidence over the 1-3 month range. |
| 2026-10-13 | Neutral | 0.22 | The previous bullish assessment was primarily based on non-price evidence from Arc #567 (Russia-Ukraine), which has now been archived/closed, removing the original positive support. Therefore, this round is revised to neutral. The only currently active arc is Arc #112 (US-Iran), which is nascent/contested and more than 14 days old, making it an outdated signal; its non-price quantitative evidence shows a significant decline in CFTC crude oil net long positions from highs (-13.55% AUM) and a clear 30-day net outflow of funds (negative), indicating de-leveraging by bulls and fund withdrawal. Although WTI near-month is still significantly backwardated (+14%) compared to the far-month, this price-derived signal cannot be used as independent non-price-driven evidence. In summary: Given the lack of key non-price evidence and the outdated nature of the active arc, maintain a neutral judgment for USO over 1-3 months and note that support has become outdated. |
| 2026-10-12 | Bullish lean | 0.34 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO for 1-3 months, primarily supported by non-price evidence from arc #567 (Russia-Ukraine): WTI near-month has been in persistent and significant backwardation against the 12-month contract, CFTC net long positions remain positive, and public inventories indicate tightness. These quantitative links point to a positive roll yield for the near-month contracts. However, confidence levels are constrained: arc #567 is classified as decaying with price_in (price_in_excess=True) marked, accompanied by significant net redemptions, indicating that some upward momentum may have been absorbed by liquidity and prices; arc #112 (US-Iran) remains nascent/contested, posing downside risks to both market sentiment and fund flows, thus only a lean bullish stance with medium-low confidence. Non-price drivers mainly refer to the curve/inventory/CFTC data from arc #567; price_in markings and net redemptions have been considered and lower confidence accordingly. |
| 2026-10-11 | Bullish lean | 0.30 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO for the next 1-3 months, primarily based on non-price evidence: the persistent backwardation (slope around 15%) of WTI near-month against the 12-month curve as reported in arc#577 and arc#567, along with positive net long positions indicated by CFTC data, which provide fundamental support for USO primarily based on near-month contracts. However, since September 21, 2026, USO has experienced significant net redemptions (30 days ≈ -29%, 90 days ≈ -82.9% as shown in arc#577/#567), and arc#567 marks price_in (price_in_excess is marked). This suggests that some of the upward expectations or momentum may have been partially absorbed by prices or liquidity, limiting short-term upward momentum. Additionally, three other arcs are decaying/nascent with low confidence, and speculative positions (COT) have been continuously declining. Therefore, maintain a bullish stance but with medium-low confidence, noting that fund flows and position reductions are the main downward constraints. |
| 2026-10-10 | Bullish lean | 0.35 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO for 1-3 months, primarily based on non-price evidence from arcs #567 and #577: the persistent backwardation (annualized slope of about 15%) between WTI near-month and 12-month curve, as well as CFTC reports still showing net long positions (although there has been a recent pullback in recent periods), which provides substantial support for USO with its focus on near-month contracts. Clear hedging/reducing factors are also evident: arcs #577/567 report significant net redemptions of USO starting from 2026-09-21 (30-day period approximately -29% AUM, 90-day period -82.87% AUM), and speculative positions (COT) have been declining continuously. The price_in marker in arc #567 also indicates that short-term prices are not entirely favorable to the bulls, thus limiting the upward path. Given no decisive directional new evidence from any of the arcs since our last conclusion, maintain the previous bullish stance but with a mid-low level of confidence. |
| 2026-10-09 | Bullish lean | 0.35 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO for 1-3 months, based on non-price evidence rather than momentum: the CFTC report for arc#567 still shows net long positions, and arcs#567/577 consistently record significant backwardation between nearby and 12-month futures contracts (supporting positive roll yields for near-month contracts) as a substantial basis for bullishness. However, both arcs also indicate substantial weakening factors—USO experienced large 30-day net redemptions starting from September 21, 2026 (approximately -28% to -29% AUM), and the COT net long has been declining in recent periods, indicating reduced bullish sentiment among funds and speculators. Therefore, while the direction remains bullish, confidence is downgraded to a low-to-medium level. |
| 2026-10-08 | Bullish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO for the next 1-3 months. The driving non-price evidence comes from arcs #567 and #112: a clear backwardation between the near-month and 12-month futures, along with a net long position (79,592 contracts) in the CFTC report and low commercial inventories, supporting positive roll yields for the near-month contract, which is theoretically beneficial for USO that primarily uses near-month positions. Confidence is limited by several weakening factors—arc #567 has started to decay, COT net longs have retreated over recent periods, and there has been significant net redemptions from the ETF (30d -28.75% AUM), while arc #112 does support but remains nascent and is more distant in time, hence overall maintaining a moderate level of confidence. |
| 2026-10-07 | Bullish lean | 0.50 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO for 1-3 months: Arc #577 (Congress/Sanctions -> Shadow Fleet) and Arc #567 (related tensions with Ukraine/Russia) still provide non-price structural support – the clear backwardation near-month vs. 12M and net long position (+79,592 contracts) from CFTC reports support positive roll yield for the near-month contract/USO. However, confidence is constrained by multiple weakening factors: both arcs are decaying, there has been a recent pullback in COT net long positions, significant net redemptions at the ETF level (-28.75% AUM over 30 days), and Arc #577 is marked with price_in=True (partially discounted) while Arc #567 shows weaken_streak=4. Given this contradiction between supportive non-price evidence and capital/position pullbacks, a moderate to low confidence level is provided. |
| 2026-10-06 | Bullish lean | 0.48 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO for 1-3 months: Arc #577 (Congress/Sanctions -> Shadow Fleet) and Arc #567 (tensions related to Ukraine/Russia) provide non-price structural support – near-month vs. 12M backwardation is significant, and the CFTC net long position (+79,592 contracts) remains positive, indicating that the near-month contract/USO can continue to generate positive roll yields. However, confidence has been dampened by several weakening factors: the benefits of Arc #577 have already been partially factored into prices (price_in=True), Arc #567 shows substantial net redemptions at the ETF/fund level (-28.75% AUM over 30 days) and COT net long positions have been declining in recent periods, and Arc #112 regarding escalation of conflict remains contentious, weakening the multiplier effect and casting doubt on the sustainability of the bullish stance. Therefore, maintain a cautious bullish position as the primary non-price drivers still exist but are partially offset by discounting/fund outflows. |
| 2026-10-05 | Bullish lean | 0.52 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO for 1-3 months. The decision is based on the non-price quantitative evidence from Arc#577 (sanctions/shadow fleet -> spot shortage -> near-month backwardation) and Arc#567 (near-month vs. 12M backwardation due to supply/geo-political issues related to Russia/Ukraine and positive CFTC net longs), which structurally support the front-end contracts and USO's positive roll yield. Confidence is lowered not because of price, but due to empirical counter-signals: Arc#577 is in a decaying state (days_since_event=8.1) with price_in=True, indicating that some of the positives have been factored in; while Arc#567, although more recent, shows COT net longs retreating, fund outflows, and rising shorts, which weaken the momentum amplifier. Therefore, maintain a bullish stance but with conservative confidence. |
| 2026-10-04 | Bullish lean | 0.58 | Maintain a bullish view on USO for 1-3 months. The decision is primarily based on the non-price quantitative evidence provided by arcs #577 and #567: recent legislative/sanction paths may compress marginal supply from 'shadow fleets' (arc #577), and significant backwardation in WTI front-end against 12-month contracts (arc #567) constitutes a positive rolling yield transmission for the front-end contract/USO. Meanwhile, caution is advised regarding embedded risks: both main support arcs are marked with price_in=True, and CFTC COT net longs have recently retreated, fund outflows have increased, and FINRA short interest has risen, weakening bullish momentum multipliers. Therefore, while acknowledging structural supports, confidence should be modestly reduced. |
| 2026-10-03 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a positive bias for USO on a medium-term basis. The driving reasons come from the non-price quantitative evidence provided by arcs #577 and #567: the persistent backwardation of WTI near-month against 12-month contracts (annualized around 16-18%), and the net long position (+79,592 contracts) in CFTC COT in the latest report, which constitute positive carry for holding front-end contracts/USO. However, cautionary contradictory information is also clear: arcs #577/567 are marked with price_in=True (part of the gains have been factored in), and there is a net outflow of funds, with significant increases in short interest from FINRA (short interest +25.2%, DTC days-to-cover=1.88) and recent declines in COT net long positions, thus adopting a positive but defensive stance. |
| 2026-10-02 | Bullish lean | 0.55 | Maintain a positive outlook for USO on a medium-term basis, primarily based on non-price structural evidence: CFTC/COT net longs remain significantly positive (+101,828 contracts, reference arcs #567/577), and there is a persistent and significant backwardation (front-end roll yield positive) between the near-month and 12-month contracts. These factors form a direct causal chain for exposure to the near-month (USO). It should also be noted that there are real constraints on the bullish position: both arcs #567 and #577 have been marked with price_in=True (indicating that part of the gains has already been factored into the market), accompanied by net outflows in funding and a significant rise in short interest from FINRA (short interest +25.2%, days-to-cover=1.88). These factors compress upward potential, thereby moderately reducing confidence. The overall conclusion is positive but defensive, driven primarily by structural supply and demand dynamics (COT + term structure), while being cautious of risks that are partially |
| 2026-10-01 | Bullish lean | 0.61 | Maintain a positive medium-term view on USO. Mainly based on non-price evidence from arcs #567 (trading) and #577 (confirmation): the CFTC/COT report shows net long positions in crude oil (+101,828 contracts as of 2026-09-22), and a significant backwardation in the near-month contract compared to the same month one year ago, supporting the chain of near-month roll yields and supply tightness. Note that arc #567 is marked with price_in=True, and factors such as liquidity outflows, rising option IV, and increased short positions will limit further upside potential, thus slightly lowering confidence; arcs #112 and #458 have some uncertain signals but carry less weight and are not sufficient to change the direction yet. |
| 2026-09-30 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a positive medium-term view on USO. The primary non-price driver comes from arcs #567 and #577: the CFTC COT report still shows net long positions in crude oil (+101,828 contracts), and there is significant backwardation in the near-month/12-month curve. Increased sanctions and sovereign risks are raising the likelihood of near-month supply tightness, which provides structural positive support to USO. However, it should be noted that several arcs (including #567 and previous #268) have been marked as price_in=True, with fund outflows, rising option IV, and short positions all contributing to a weakening confidence in reaching new highs. Therefore, we maintain moderate but not high confidence (lower than the last time). |
| 2026-09-29 | Bullish lean | 0.66 | 维持对 USO 的中期偏多。驱动性非价格证据来自弧#567（Russia‑Ukraine）：CFTC COT 净多 +101,828 手与近月对 12 个月合约约 +20% 年化的明显 backwardation，构成“近月偏紧→正向 roll→USO 受益”的主链条；弧#577（美中/制裁进展）进一步提升主权/替代溢价实现概率，增强多头理由。需要同时指出风险：弧#268 已被标注 price_in=True（表明部分上涨已被计入）且资金面与行为面不利（30d AUM −20%／短仓 +25%），这些拥挤与流动性信号限定了置信度并提醒须控制回撤与仓位。 |
| 2026-09-27 | Bullish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a positive medium-term view on USO. The driving non-price evidence comes from Arc #567 (Russia-Ukraine): CFTC COT net long is still +101,828 contracts and WTI near-month is significantly backwardated against the 12-month contract (annualized about 21.46%), forming a direct transmission chain of 'near-term tightness -> positive roll -> ETF benefit'; meanwhile, Arc #577 (US-China/related to sanctions on Russia) provides new sovereign/ evidence for this chain, reinforcing the bullish logic. It should be noted that most arcs are marked with price_in=True (some excess returns have been absorbed), and IV/short positions have risen, indicating crowdedness and volatility risks. Therefore, confidence is mildly lifted by fresh confirming evidence but constrained by 'already factored in' signals. |
| 2026-09-26 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO. The decisive driver comes from Arc #567 (Russia-Ukraine): the latest actionable non-price evidence—CFTC crude net long position still in place and significant backwardation between nearby and 12-month contracts—supports the transmission chain of 'nearby tightness -> positive roll -> USO benefits'. Other secondary arcs (#268 Taiwan Strait tensions, #577 decoupling rhetoric between US and China, #458 Houthi attacks) are generally in the same direction but marked with price_in=True and show slight COT/holding reductions alongside rising implied volatility, indicating that some of the gains may already be priced in and there is a risk of short-term crowding or retracement. Therefore, maintain moderate confidence but do not raise it excessively. |
| 2026-09-25 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | 维持对 USO 的偏多判断。主因是弧#567 提供的新鲜且可执行的非价格证据——CFTC crude_oil 净多 +106,279 手与近月对比 12 个月的明显 backwardation（约 19–22%），这构成“现货/近月紧俏→正向 roll→USO 受益”的对口链条。须注意弧#567 与弧#503 标注 price_in=True，表明部分上涨已被市场计入；此外弧#503/ #268 报告的成交量、基金流与短期波动信号走弱，因而将置信度维持在中等偏上但不过度抬高的水平。 |
| 2026-09-24 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bullish view on USO, primarily driven by fresh and confirmed non-price evidence from Arc #567: CFTC crude oil net long positions at a high (+106,279 contracts) supporting near-month scarcity and roll yield with significant near-month-to-12-month backwardation (annualized ~20–23%). Multiple independent arcs, such as #503 and #268, align with this chain of reasoning, reinforcing the directional bias. However, it should be noted that Arcs #567 and #503 have price_in=True marked, indicating that some of the rally has already been priced in; additionally, fund flows/volume signals and short-term volatility indicators weaken execution confidence, thus limiting confidence to a moderate level. This conclusion is based on non-price evidence such as COT and futures curves rather than solely on price momentum. |
| 2026-09-23 | Bullish lean | 0.56 | 维持对 USO 的偏多（lean_positive），主要由弧#112 提供的非价格证据驱动：CFTC 原油净多 +106,279 手与明显的近月—12 个月 backwardation 支撑近月现货紧俏与 roll 收益。多条独立弧（例如 #567、#503）方向一致，增强了方向性，但多弧同时被标注为 price_in=True 且基金流/成交量显示赎回与放量下跌，表明部分上涨已被计入并削弱执行层面的信心。另需注意弧#112 的 quant 指标中 excess_sigma 为轻微负值，与其“confirming”措辞并不完全一致，这一矛盾亦是我将置信度从先前水平下调的原因。 |
| 2026-09-21 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a positive stance on USO, primarily driven by fresh and quantifiable non-price evidence from Arc #112 (US-Iran 2026 War): CFTC crude oil net longs at +106,279 contracts and significant near-month to 12-month backwardation supporting relative tightness in the near-month spot with rolling returns. Other arcs such as #567 and #503 are also positive but nascent, with some already priced in (price_in=True), compounded by USO’s notable AUM/liquidity outflows, which limit the ability to raise confidence to a high level. Overall, maintain a lean positive stance but not fully invested due to non-price evidence supporting directionality while being cautious of pricing-in and liquidity/congestion risks. |
| 2026-09-20 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc #112: the latest CFTC net long position remains at +106,279 contracts (slightly down from 9/08), and the near-month-to-12-month futures curve is clearly in backwardation, indicating relative tightness between near-month physical supply and rolling positions, which structurally supports short-term oil ETFs. However, this bullish stance needs to be tempered by arcs #503 and #577, both marked with price_in=True, as crowded COT positions and unchanged option IV suggest that some upward momentum has already been priced in and carry/overbought risks. Overall view: recent geo-political/shipping disruptions (arc #112) provide fresh and quantifiable bullish catalysts, but given that some factors have partially materialized, maintain a bullish but non-full-position stance. |
| 2026-09-19 | Bullish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO, primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc#112: CFTC net longs (report period ~+106,279 contracts) and significant backwardation of the near-month against 12 months (≈32.9% annualized) indicate tightness between physical near-month and rolling end, supporting positive roll yield logic. However, this needs to be tempered by arcs#503 and #577 with price_in=True and a slight COT decline in recent weeks, as well as unchanged option IV, indicating that some upward movement has already been factored into the market; thus, position sizing should be controlled. Additionally, arc#112 (and new geopolitical disturbance signals from arcs#268/#458) are confirmed and very recent (≤7 days), so overall maintain a bullish stance but not fully committed. This conclusion is based on non-price quantitative evidence (CFTC net longs, futures curve structure, and shipping/geopolitical disruption chain) rather than simple price momentum. |
| 2026-09-18 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Continue bullish on USO: primarily driven by non-price evidence from arc #112 - CFTC net long +111,731 contracts with near-month vs 12-month significant backwardation pointing to tightness in the near-month physical/roll segment (supply disruption chain: OPEC+/Middle East conflict/shipping disruptions). Most arcs also support this view (#458/#268/#577), but caution is advised regarding signals that may already be partially discounted in price (arc #503 marked with price_in=True) and the risk of a pullback due to extreme COT concentration. Therefore, while maintaining a bullish stance, it is recommended to manage position size. This conclusion is based primarily on non-price quantitative evidence (CFTC net long, curve structure, and related supply disruption risks), not solely on price momentum. |
| 2026-09-17 | Bullish lean | 0.52 | Continue bullish on USO; primarily based on non-price evidence from arc #503/112/458: CFTC net long +111,731 contracts with clear near-month vs 12-month backwardation (indicating near-month delivery/supply tightness and supporting positive roll yield). However, two substantial factors that lower confidence are noted: arc #503 and #458 both marked price_in=True (part of the bullish signal has been discounted by the market), and high option IV, outflows, and technical overcrowding increase the risk of a pullback; arc #112 further reminds us of the downside risk to demand from potential Fed rate hikes. In summary, maintain a bullish stance but suggest managing position size and being vigilant for short-term volatility/macroeconomic events. |
| 2026-09-16 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Remains bullish, but with cautious confidence downgraded. Mainly based on non-price evidence from arcs #112 and #458 – CFTC report net longs +111,731 contracts and a clear near-month vs 12-month backwardation (indicating near-month delivery/spot tightness) – as well as the latest OPEC decision from arc #503 triggering (days_since_event ≤7) for recent confirmation. It should be noted that arcs #503 and #458 are marked with price_in=True and high historical option IV percentiles, along with net outflows in funding, indicating that some of the positives have been discounted by the market and increasing crowdedness/rollback risks. Therefore, maintain a bullish stance but remain cautious on chasing highs and control position size/risk of volatility. |
| 2026-09-15 | Bullish lean | 0.64 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO. The rationale is based on non-price evidence: CFTC net long +111,731 contracts in arc#577 with strong near-month vs 12-month backwardation (indicating tightness at the spot/delivery end), and latest OPEC/strait disruption trigger in arc#503 (days_since_event ≤7), which directly supports front-month/roll exposure. Note that most arcs are marked price_in=True (some bullish factors have been partially priced in), with significant net outflow from ETFs and elevated option IV, as well as current wind bias towards risk convergence (VIX term ratio≈0.95). Therefore, while bullish, confidence is moderately constrained. |
| 2026-09-14 | Bullish lean | 0.62 | Maintain a bullish stance on USO. Mainly based on the 'corroborative' non-price evidence from arcs #577 and #503: CFTC latest weekly net long is significantly positive (+111,731 contracts) and the near-month/12-month price differential indicates strong backwardation, suggesting tightness in the near-month spot market that will be transmitted to USO, which primarily rolls near-month contracts. Note that most arcs are marked with price_in=True (excess returns in recent windows have been realized), significant outflows from the ETF and elevated option IV, indicating that some of the positives may already be priced in. Therefore, caution should be exercised in entry prices and position sizing. |