Risk Regime
Top-down risk-regime nowcast: stress gauges + systemic-crisis discriminators. Read-only overlay, not a positioning signal.
Current state
Rates/inflation risk-off (bonds sell too)
Systemic score (0 = no signs)
0.0
Discriminators
Credit widening NoBonds as haven NoSystemic crisis NoVIX backwardation NoYields rising YesBreakevens rising YesFunding stress NoStress gauges
| Gauge | Last | 5d chg | 20d chg | Z | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX (spot) | 15.67 | +0.78 | -4.99 | -0.77 | 2026-08-26 |
| VIX (3-month) | 18.56 | -0.48 | -1.64 | -0.87 | 2026-08-24 |
| HY OAS | 2.69% | -0.01 | -0.12 | -1.10 | 2026-08-24 |
| IG OAS | 0.81% | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.43 | 2026-08-24 |
| US 10Y | 4.64% | -0.07 | +0.03 | +1.67 | 2026-08-25 |
| US 2Y | 4.17% | -0.02 | -0.09 | +1.45 | 2026-08-25 |
| 10y breakeven | 2.32% | +0.02 | +0.12 | +0.04 | 2026-08-25 |
| Broad USD | 118.063 | -0.84 | -2.65 | -1.62 | 2026-08-21 |
| Gold vol (GVZ) | 27.69 | +3.71 | +3.07 | +0.20 | 2026-08-25 |
| 3M financial CP | 3.8% | -0.02 | +0.04 | -0.88 | 2026-08-24 |
| 3M T-bill | 3.72% | +0.00 | -0.10 | +0.19 | 2026-08-24 |
| SOFR | 3.66% | +0.01 | +0.01 | -0.53 | 2026-08-25 |
| IORB | 3.65% | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.00 | 2026-08-26 |
Systemic score components
| Component | Contribution | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| HY OAS level | 0 | HY 2.69% vs 3.5% floor |
| HY widening (20d) | 0 | 20d change -0.12 |
| VIX level | 0.0 | VIX 15.67 vs 20 floor |
| VIX backwardation | 0 | term ratio 0.844 (>1 to trigger) |
| VIX z-score | 0 | z -0.77 |
| Funding stress | 0.0 | CP−bill 8.0bp (40 floor) · SOFR−IORB 1.0bp (15 floor) |