Simulated Performance · Non-Rates · Inverse-Vol
Four $100,000 simulated walk-forward portfolios: the same daily directional verdicts, three ETF sizing schemes, plus one that expresses rate views with bond futures. Simulation only - no real money; built to test signal quality.
Universe: 80 non-bond ETFs — US sectors and themes, countries and regions, commodities and precious metals, currencies. Every fixed-income ticker is excluded and lives in the Rates book, so this page reflects equity/commodity signal quality alone.
Sizing · inverse-volatility (causal, unlevered): each position = $5,000 × target vol 15% ÷ its own ~20-day realised vol at entry, clamped to $1,750–$15,000. Low-vol larger, high-vol smaller, so each contributes similar risk. Sizing uses ONLY that position's pre-entry data — nothing about any other trade, past or future — so it is look-ahead-free and reproducible live. Concurrent gross is capped at $100,000 (no leverage): the cash book funds same-day competitors by CONFIDENCE priority; squeezed signals wait and are re-funded at that day's price when cash frees up (since 2026-08-15). The 'Size $' column below is each position's notional market value. This page is the NON-RATES sleeve: 9 rate/fixed-income ETFs (IEF/TLT/SHY/HYG…) are excluded at the source and tracked on the Rates page — their low vol used to max out at $15,000 each and eat half the book, masking what non-rates signals actually earn. Same-direction exposure sharing one narrative (arc) is additionally capped at $25,000, so one wrong story can't blow up through several ETFs at once (the June-July semiconductor lesson). Non-rates ETFs run hotter vol, so the formula typically sizes $2k–6k per position and rarely touches the $15,000 ceiling — a high cash balance here is signal-driven (not enough independent ideas worth funding), not a rule artifact. ⚠️ Post-split the sample is smaller and shows non-rates signals undiluted — uglier numbers are honesty, not breakage.
Excluded 3 small/volatile ETF(s) (AUM<$2B & >40% annualised vol — not realistically fillable at size, and a drag on risk-adjusted return): BNO, CHPS, UNG.
$100,000 → $103,153.92
Initial capital → Final equity
58 / 18 / 0
Closed / Open / Pending
27.9 d
Avg hold
$22,736
Cash on hand · Initial + realised + interest − open cost
$513
Cash interest earned · Idle balance at the ultra-short rate · 3.85%
Performance by window
Rolling windows. Tier 2 risk-adjusted metrics require ≥30 trading days (else shown as —). Profit factor is an exception requiring only ≥3 closed trades.
| 7D | 1M | 3M | SI since launch · 93d | SPY buy & hold · SI | AGG buy & hold · SI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 · Strategic | ||||||
| Portfolio return | +0.92% | +1.34% | +2.98% | +3.15% | +1.96% | -2.55% |
| Benchmark (SPY) return | -1.21% | +0.94% | +2.20% | +1.96% | — | — |
| Value added | +2.13% | +0.40% | +0.77% | +1.20% | — | — |
| Win rate | 40.0% | 35.3% | 40.4% | 37.9% | — | — |
| Closed trades (count) | 5 | 17 | 47 | 58 | — | — |
| Max drawdown · invested | -0.19% | -0.45% | -1.25% | -1.91% | -4.49% | -3.92% |
| Tier 2 · Risk-adjusted | ||||||
| Sharpe · invested | — | — | 2.53 | 1.49 | 0.14 | -2.61 |
| Sortino | — | — | 3.88 | 2.26 | 0.21 | -3.16 |
| Calmar | — | — | 12.42 | 6.18 | 1.20 | -1.72 |
| Annualised vol | — | — | 4.0% | 4.7% | 12.6% | 4.3% |
| Beta vs SPY | — | — | 0.03 | 0.09 | — | — |
| Info ratio · vs page BM | — | — | 0.47 | 0.42 | — | — |
| Profit factor | 0.66 | 0.99 | 1.00 | 0.91 | — | — |
Long/Short breakdown (cash excluded, side-deployed-capital basis)
| 7D | 1M | 3M | SI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↳ Long · Portfolio return | +0.57% | -0.42% | +3.00% | +6.22% |
| ↳ Short · Portfolio return | +1.28% | +3.82% | +2.62% | -1.31% |
| ↳ Long · Win rate | 0.0% | 16.7% | 41.9% | 36.8% |
| ↳ Short · Win rate | 66.7% | 80.0% | 37.5% | 40.0% |
| ↳ Long · Max drawdown · invested | -0.70% | -2.28% | -4.46% | -4.46% |
| ↳ Short · Max drawdown · invested | -0.34% | -0.91% | -3.75% | -7.41% |
| ↳ Long · Sharpe · invested | — | — | 0.91 | 1.48 |
| ↳ Short · Sharpe · invested | — | — | 0.76 | -0.85 |
| ↳ Long · Sortino | — | — | 1.28 | 2.23 |
| ↳ Short · Sortino | — | — | 1.11 | -1.18 |
| ↳ Long · Annualised vol | — | — | 8.5% | 9.0% |
| ↳ Short · Annualised vol | — | — | 8.3% | 8.9% |
| ↳ Long · Beta vs SPY | — | — | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| ↳ Short · Beta vs SPY | — | — | -0.55 | -0.47 |
| ↳ Long · Profit factor | — | 0.58 | 1.60 | 1.36 |
| ↳ Short · Profit factor | 1.50 | 4.30 | 0.42 | 0.44 |
Weekly P&L
Weekly P&L = week-end NAV − prior week-end NAV (bucketed Mon–Sun, labelled by the last trading day of the week), which inherently includes BOTH realized (closed trades) and unrealized (open positions marked-to-market), since NAV = cash + realized + open MtM. YTD = latest NAV − initial capital.
YTD: +$3,154 (+3.15%) · SPY same period: +1.96% Win
| Week ending | Week-end NAV | P&L | % | SPY % | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | $103,154 | +$634 | +0.62% | -1.15% | Win |
| 2026-10-09 | $102,520 | +$244 | +0.24% | +1.15% | Loss |
| 2026-10-02 | $102,277 | +$317 | +0.31% | -0.22% | Win |
| 2026-09-25 | $101,960 | +$74 | +0.07% | +1.26% | Loss |
| 2026-09-18 | $101,885 | +$91 | +0.09% | -0.09% | Win |
| 2026-09-11 | $101,794 | −$37 | -0.04% | -0.76% | Win |
| 2026-09-04 | $101,831 | +$207 | +0.20% | +0.11% | Win |
| 2026-08-28 | $101,624 | −$558 | -0.55% | +0.47% | Loss |
| 2026-08-21 | $102,182 | +$401 | +0.39% | -1.36% | Win |
| 2026-08-14 | $101,781 | +$583 | +0.58% | +0.40% | Win |
| 2026-08-07 | $101,198 | +$244 | +0.24% | +3.50% | Loss |
| 2026-07-31 | $100,955 | +$470 | +0.47% | +1.09% | Loss |
| 2026-07-24 | $100,484 | +$638 | +0.64% | -0.59% | Win |
| 2026-07-17 | $99,846 | −$811 | -0.81% | -1.54% | Win |
| 2026-07-10 | $100,657 | +$52 | +0.05% | +1.36% | Loss |
| 2026-07-02 | $100,605 | +$216 | +0.21% | +2.16% | Loss |
| 2026-06-26 | $100,389 | −$107 | -0.11% | -2.37% | Win |
| 2026-06-18 | $100,496 | +$319 | +0.32% | +0.93% | Loss |
| 2026-06-12 | $100,177 | +$135 | +0.13% | +0.57% | Loss |
| 2026-06-05 | $100,042 | +$42 | +0.04% | -2.77% | Win |
Page 1 / 1
Book scenario (data-only)
All measured numbers — no LLM narration. 2026-06-05→2026-10-14 · 91d
Profit engine: both sides
Banks/Financials ·7+$1,654
Energy ·7+$1,472
Gold ·6+$563
FX/USD ·7+$353
Defense/Aero ·3+$246
Sleeves · hedge status
Longs ·48 (avg +$40 · 33%W)+$1,925
Shorts ·34 (avg +$21 · 36%W)+$716
Both sides positive — no hedge cost · sleeve corr -0.47
Implied regime: reflation / rates-up tilt + still primarily a selection book (idiosyncratic 68%)
net beta 0.016 · idiosyncratic 68%
Intentional hedges
S·IWM × L·XLK (0.66)
S·IWM × L·EWT (0.63)
S·IAU × L·XLK (0.42)
L·EWT × S·IAU (0.37)
Accidental straddles · 0
none
Latest-day P&L by ETF 2026-10-14
Per-ETF P&L of positions held on 2026-10-14 (14 positions, this page's sizing). Total +$225.
| ETF | Direction | Day ret | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM | short | -1.93% | +$103 | |
| VTI | short | -1.16% | +$90 | |
| IAU | short | -1.51% | +$48 | |
| UUP | long | +0.34% | +$38 | |
| KRE | short | -0.75% | +$34 | |
| KBE | short | -0.70% | +$33 | |
| BKLN | short | -0.20% | +$29 | |
| FXC | short | -0.16% | +$24 | |
| IYR | short | -0.71% | +$20 | |
| VDE | long | +0.22% | +$7 | |
| XPH | short | -0.05% | +$2 | |
| XOP | long | -0.99% | −$24 | |
| EWT | long | -2.22% | −$47 | |
| XLK | long | -2.98% | −$131 |
Factor Attribution · Risk
Return/risk split onto two factor levels — macro (Broad market/Rates/Credit/Dollar/Gold/Oil/Crypto) + sector/theme (Semis/China/Defense/Financials/Energy-eq) — plus idiosyncratic (selection). Window 2026-06-05→2026-10-14 (91d).
Risk composition (% of variance): Equity family 62% · Other macro 21% · Idiosyncratic 17%
Broad market 22%Semis 11%China 7%Defense 9%Energy eq. 6%Real estate 8%Rates 1%Credit 3%Dollar 6%Gold 9%Oil 1%Idiosyncratic 17%
| Factor | Exposure β | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity (broad + sectors) | +0.07 | +0.87% | 28% | 61.8% |
| Broad market | +0.02 | -0.26% | -8% | 21.8% |
| Semis | +0.02 | -0.35% | -11% | 11.1% |
| China | +0.01 | -0.17% | -5% | 6.7% |
| Defense | +0.02 | +0.34% | 11% | 9.4% |
| Financials | -0.01 | +0.58% | 18% | -0.4% |
| Energy eq. | +0.03 | +0.37% | 12% | 6.4% |
| Real estate | -0.05 | +0.36% | 11% | 7.5% |
| Tech | +0.02 | +0.03% | 1% | -0.8% |
| EM | +0.02 | -0.02% | -1% | 0.1% |
| Other macro | -0.05 | +0.14% | 4% | 20.9% |
| Rates | -0.05 | +0.11% | 4% | 1.4% |
| Credit | -0.06 | +0.08% | 2% | 3.3% |
| Dollar | +0.03 | -0.02% | -1% | 5.5% |
| Gold | +0.03 | +0.25% | 8% | 9.4% |
| Oil | +0.01 | -0.29% | -9% | 1.4% |
| Crypto | -0.00 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.1% |
| Idiosyncratic | — | +2.14% | 68% | 17.4% |
A high idiosyncratic share means return/risk comes mainly from selection, not a factor bet. ⚠️ A factor row aggregates every holding that LOADS on it — not sector membership; short single-regime window — sector-factor βs are noisy, wide error bars.
Per-factor ETF loadings
Broad market
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VTI | -0.034 | -0.29% | -9% | 0.1% |
| QQQ | +0.000 | -0.20% | -6% | 2.5% |
| KBE · top:Financials | -0.004 | +0.17% | 5% | 0.8% |
| IWM | -0.037 | +0.15% | 5% | -3.1% |
| SMH | +0.006 | -0.15% | -5% | 0.7% |
| EWG · top:Credit | +0.003 | -0.14% | -4% | 2.0% |
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.012 | +0.12% | 4% | 0.7% |
| EEM | -0.001 | -0.11% | -4% | 2.2% |
| EWC · top:Dollar | -0.006 | +0.10% | 3% | -1.2% |
| EWT | +0.005 | -0.09% | -3% | 0.6% |
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.011 | +0.08% | 2% | 0.5% |
| XOP · top:Energy eq. | +0.016 | +0.07% | 2% | -0.2% |
Rates
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IYR · top:Real estate | -0.026 | +0.06% | 2% | 0.2% |
| VDE · top:Credit | +0.023 | +0.06% | 2% | 0.1% |
| XOP · top:Energy eq. | +0.016 | +0.04% | 1% | 0.1% |
| XLU · top:Real estate | -0.013 | +0.04% | 1% | 0.5% |
| XLRE · top:Real estate | -0.009 | +0.03% | 1% | 0.3% |
| XPH · top:Credit | -0.001 | -0.03% | -1% | -0.2% |
| WEAT · top:Broad market | +0.000 | -0.03% | -1% | 0.0% |
| FXY · top:Dollar | +0.021 | -0.03% | -1% | -0.1% |
| UUP · top:Dollar | +0.094 | +0.03% | 1% | 0.3% |
| XLB · top:Broad market | +0.004 | +0.02% | 1% | 0.0% |
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.011 | -0.02% | -1% | -0.2% |
| GLD · top:Dollar | +0.008 | -0.02% | -1% | -0.0% |
Credit
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.012 | +0.08% | 2% | 0.1% |
| KBE · top:Financials | -0.004 | +0.07% | 2% | -0.1% |
| FXI | +0.006 | -0.07% | -2% | 0.2% |
| FXC · top:Dollar | -0.030 | +0.06% | 2% | 0.1% |
| EEM · top:Broad market | -0.001 | -0.06% | -2% | 0.1% |
| VDE | +0.023 | -0.05% | -2% | -0.4% |
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.037 | +0.05% | 2% | 0.6% |
| EWG | +0.003 | -0.04% | -1% | 0.1% |
| KWEB · top:China | +0.002 | +0.03% | 1% | -0.0% |
| XPH | -0.001 | +0.03% | 1% | 0.2% |
| AMLP | +0.020 | +0.02% | 1% | -0.2% |
| XOP · top:Energy eq. | +0.016 | -0.02% | -1% | -0.2% |
Dollar
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDXJ | +0.008 | +0.09% | 3% | 0.5% |
| EWG · top:Credit | +0.003 | -0.06% | -2% | 0.2% |
| GLD | +0.008 | -0.05% | -2% | -0.3% |
| UUP | +0.094 | -0.05% | -2% | 3.0% |
| MCHI · top:Credit | +0.008 | +0.04% | 1% | 0.1% |
| EWC | -0.006 | +0.04% | 1% | 0.1% |
| IAU | +0.001 | -0.02% | -1% | 0.2% |
| KBE · top:Financials | -0.004 | -0.02% | -1% | 0.3% |
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.011 | +0.02% | 1% | -0.3% |
| FXY | +0.021 | -0.02% | -1% | 0.5% |
| FXC | -0.030 | -0.02% | -1% | 0.2% |
| KWEB · top:China | +0.002 | +0.02% | 1% | 0.2% |
Gold
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD · top:Dollar | +0.008 | +0.12% | 4% | 2.7% |
| GDXJ · top:Dollar | +0.008 | +0.06% | 2% | 2.1% |
| XLB · top:Broad market | +0.004 | +0.04% | 1% | 0.1% |
| EEM · top:Broad market | -0.001 | -0.03% | -1% | 0.2% |
| FXI · top:Credit | +0.006 | -0.02% | -1% | 0.0% |
| PPA · top:Broad market | +0.011 | +0.02% | 1% | 0.4% |
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.011 | +0.02% | 1% | 0.3% |
| KWEB · top:China | +0.002 | +0.02% | 0% | 0.1% |
| MCHI · top:Credit | +0.008 | +0.01% | 0% | 0.1% |
| ITA · top:Broad market | +0.020 | +0.01% | 0% | 0.6% |
| SMH · top:Broad market | +0.006 | +0.01% | 0% | 0.3% |
| IAU · top:Dollar | +0.001 | +0.01% | 0% | 3.5% |
Oil
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOP · top:Energy eq. | +0.016 | -0.18% | -6% | 0.8% |
| XLE · top:Credit | -0.005 | +0.16% | 5% | -0.1% |
| VDE · top:Credit | +0.023 | -0.15% | -5% | 0.8% |
| WEAT · top:Broad market | +0.000 | -0.08% | -3% | -0.2% |
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.037 | -0.07% | -2% | 0.1% |
| ITA · top:Broad market | +0.020 | +0.04% | 1% | -0.2% |
| EWG · top:Credit | +0.003 | -0.04% | -1% | -0.1% |
| EEM · top:Broad market | -0.001 | -0.03% | -1% | 0.1% |
| GDXJ · top:Dollar | +0.008 | +0.03% | 1% | -0.2% |
| XLF · top:Financials | +0.017 | +0.03% | 1% | -0.0% |
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.011 | +0.03% | 1% | -0.0% |
| FXC · top:Dollar | -0.030 | -0.03% | -1% | 0.2% |
Crypto
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.037 | -0.05% | -2% | 0.1% |
| XOP · top:Energy eq. | +0.016 | +0.04% | 1% | -0.2% |
| MCHI · top:Credit | +0.008 | +0.02% | 1% | -0.1% |
| SMH · top:Broad market | +0.006 | -0.02% | -1% | -0.0% |
| IYR · top:Real estate | -0.026 | -0.02% | -1% | 0.1% |
| XLB · top:Broad market | +0.004 | -0.02% | -1% | 0.0% |
| VDE · top:Credit | +0.023 | +0.02% | 0% | -0.1% |
| GDXJ · top:Dollar | +0.008 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.0% |
| KWEB · top:China | +0.002 | +0.01% | 0% | 0.0% |
| SOXX · top:Broad market | +0.006 | -0.01% | -0% | 0.1% |
| FXI · top:Credit | +0.006 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.0% |
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.012 | +0.01% | 0% | 0.0% |
Semis
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH · top:Broad market | +0.006 | -0.16% | -5% | 1.5% |
| DTCR · top:Broad market | +0.003 | -0.13% | -4% | 1.0% |
| XLF · top:Financials | +0.017 | +0.12% | 4% | -1.5% |
| EWT · top:Broad market | +0.005 | -0.11% | -4% | 0.4% |
| XLV · top:Tech | -0.009 | -0.11% | -4% | -0.9% |
| XLK · top:Broad market | +0.004 | -0.10% | -3% | 0.7% |
| EEM · top:Broad market | -0.001 | +0.10% | 3% | 1.1% |
| XLRE · top:Real estate | -0.009 | -0.10% | -3% | 0.0% |
| SOXX · top:Broad market | +0.006 | +0.08% | 3% | 5.2% |
| QQQ · top:Broad market | +0.000 | +0.07% | 2% | 1.1% |
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.012 | -0.06% | -2% | -0.2% |
| AMLP · top:Credit | +0.020 | +0.03% | 1% | -0.0% |
China
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FXI · top:Credit | +0.006 | -0.23% | -7% | 2.0% |
| MCHI · top:Credit | +0.008 | -0.11% | -4% | 2.9% |
| KWEB | +0.002 | +0.10% | 3% | 1.8% |
| EEM · top:Broad market | -0.001 | +0.04% | 1% | -0.3% |
| CORN · top:Credit | +0.004 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.0% |
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.037 | +0.01% | 0% | 0.0% |
| XLU · top:Real estate | -0.013 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.1% |
| VDE · top:Credit | +0.023 | -0.01% | -0% | 0.0% |
| XLF · top:Financials | +0.017 | -0.01% | -0% | 0.1% |
| INDA · top:Broad market | +0.003 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.0% |
| WEAT · top:Broad market | +0.000 | -0.01% | -0% | -0.1% |
| XLRE · top:Real estate | -0.009 | -0.01% | -0% | 0.0% |
Defense
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KBE · top:Financials | -0.004 | +0.15% | 5% | 1.0% |
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.012 | +0.12% | 4% | 0.6% |
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.037 | +0.07% | 2% | -0.1% |
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.011 | +0.07% | 2% | 1.8% |
| PPA · top:Broad market | +0.011 | -0.07% | -2% | 2.4% |
| EWG · top:Credit | +0.003 | -0.04% | -1% | -0.2% |
| XOP · top:Energy eq. | +0.016 | +0.04% | 1% | 0.0% |
| QQQ · top:Broad market | +0.000 | +0.04% | 1% | 0.3% |
| XLB · top:Broad market | +0.004 | -0.03% | -1% | 0.0% |
| XLRE · top:Real estate | -0.009 | -0.02% | -1% | -0.3% |
| VDE · top:Credit | +0.023 | +0.02% | 1% | -0.0% |
| XLU · top:Real estate | -0.013 | -0.02% | -1% | -0.6% |
Financials
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KBE | -0.004 | +0.36% | 11% | -0.3% |
| KRE | -0.012 | +0.33% | 11% | -0.2% |
| XLF | +0.017 | -0.06% | -2% | 0.3% |
| IYR · top:Real estate | -0.026 | -0.05% | -2% | 0.1% |
| EWT · top:Broad market | +0.005 | +0.03% | 1% | -0.1% |
| VDE · top:Credit | +0.023 | -0.03% | -1% | -0.1% |
| EWC · top:Dollar | -0.006 | +0.02% | 1% | -0.2% |
| XLE · top:Credit | -0.005 | -0.02% | -1% | 0.0% |
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.037 | -0.01% | -0% | 0.2% |
| AIQ · top:Broad market | +0.006 | -0.01% | -0% | 0.0% |
| XOP · top:Energy eq. | +0.016 | -0.01% | -0% | -0.0% |
| AMLP · top:Credit | +0.020 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.1% |
Energy eq.
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VDE · top:Credit | +0.023 | +0.12% | 4% | 3.4% |
| XLE · top:Credit | -0.005 | +0.12% | 4% | 0.8% |
| XOP | +0.016 | +0.08% | 3% | 2.6% |
| AMLP · top:Credit | +0.020 | +0.05% | 2% | 0.6% |
| XLU · top:Real estate | -0.013 | -0.04% | -1% | -0.2% |
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.012 | -0.02% | -0% | -0.4% |
| XLB · top:Broad market | +0.004 | -0.02% | -0% | 0.1% |
| MCHI · top:Credit | +0.008 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.1% |
| QQQ · top:Broad market | +0.000 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.0% |
| EWC · top:Dollar | -0.006 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.3% |
| EWT · top:Broad market | +0.005 | +0.01% | 0% | 0.2% |
| XPH · top:Credit | -0.001 | +0.01% | 0% | 0.1% |
Real estate
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLRE | -0.009 | +0.15% | 5% | 1.9% |
| XLU | -0.013 | +0.09% | 3% | 1.4% |
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.012 | +0.08% | 2% | -0.6% |
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.037 | +0.05% | 2% | 0.8% |
| KBE · top:Financials | -0.004 | +0.03% | 1% | -1.1% |
| XLB · top:Broad market | +0.004 | -0.03% | -1% | 0.0% |
| IYR | -0.026 | +0.02% | 1% | 5.6% |
| GDXJ · top:Dollar | +0.008 | -0.02% | -1% | -0.1% |
| XLV · top:Tech | -0.009 | +0.02% | 1% | 0.3% |
| AMLP · top:Credit | +0.020 | -0.02% | -1% | -0.4% |
| VDE · top:Credit | +0.023 | -0.01% | -0% | -0.1% |
| EWC · top:Dollar | -0.006 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.2% |
Tech
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLV | -0.009 | +0.05% | 2% | -0.4% |
| XLU · top:Real estate | -0.013 | +0.04% | 1% | -0.1% |
| KBE · top:Financials | -0.004 | -0.04% | -1% | 0.1% |
| XLK · top:Broad market | +0.004 | -0.02% | -1% | -0.4% |
| QQQ · top:Broad market | +0.000 | -0.02% | -1% | 0.2% |
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.011 | -0.02% | -1% | 0.1% |
| KRE · top:Financials | -0.012 | -0.02% | -1% | 0.0% |
| EWG · top:Credit | +0.003 | +0.02% | 1% | -0.1% |
| SMH · top:Broad market | +0.006 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.0% |
| PPA · top:Broad market | +0.011 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.0% |
| AIQ · top:Broad market | +0.006 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.2% |
| GDXJ · top:Dollar | +0.008 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.1% |
EM
| ETF | Net w. | Return contrib. | % of return | % of risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWT · top:Broad market | +0.005 | -0.06% | -2% | -0.1% |
| EWG · top:Credit | +0.003 | +0.04% | 1% | -0.0% |
| WEAT · top:Broad market | +0.000 | -0.03% | -1% | 0.1% |
| MCHI · top:Credit | +0.008 | +0.02% | 0% | -0.1% |
| DTCR · top:Broad market | +0.003 | -0.02% | -0% | -0.0% |
| EEM · top:Broad market | -0.001 | +0.01% | 0% | 0.1% |
| EUAD · top:Credit | +0.011 | -0.01% | -0% | 0.1% |
| KWEB · top:China | +0.002 | +0.01% | 0% | 0.0% |
| AIQ · top:Broad market | +0.006 | -0.01% | -0% | -0.0% |
| XLU · top:Real estate | -0.013 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.1% |
| VTI · top:Broad market | -0.034 | +0.01% | 0% | -0.0% |
| IWM · top:Broad market | -0.037 | -0.01% | -0% | 0.0% |
Per-ETF factor betas (46, the raw sensitivities aggregated above)
| ETF | Net w. | Broad market | Rates | Credit | Dollar | Gold | Oil | Crypto | Semis | China | Defense | Financials | Energy eq. | Real estate | Tech | EM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UUP | +0.094 | -0.16 | -0.10 | -0.67 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 |
| IWM | -0.037 | 1.10 | 0.13 | 0.96 | 0.01 | 0.07 | -0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.26 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| VTI | -0.034 | 1.01 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.01 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| FXC | -0.030 | 0.04 | -0.01 | 0.35 | -0.63 | 0.03 | 0.02 | -0.00 | -0.01 | 0.01 | -0.01 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| IYR | -0.026 | 0.38 | 0.52 | 0.92 | -0.12 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.03 | -0.14 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.99 | -0.02 | -0.04 |
| VDE | +0.023 | -0.50 | -0.50 | 1.22 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.24 | 0.04 | -0.02 | 0.04 | -0.04 | 0.21 | 0.99 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| FXY | +0.021 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.42 | -1.03 | -0.02 | -0.01 | 0.00 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.01 | -0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | -0.00 | 0.04 |
| AMLP | +0.020 | -0.19 | -0.07 | 0.56 | -0.06 | -0.01 | 0.10 | -0.00 | -0.03 | -0.01 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.34 | 0.12 | 0.02 | -0.07 |
| ITA | +0.020 | 1.00 | 0.25 | -0.24 | -0.08 | 0.13 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.02 | 0.02 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 |
| XLF | +0.017 | 0.64 | -0.00 | 0.05 | 0.28 | -0.04 | -0.02 | 0.03 | -0.20 | -0.04 | 0.11 | 1.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 |
| XOP | +0.016 | -0.72 | -0.88 | 0.69 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0.36 | 0.07 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.14 | 0.23 | 1.03 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.04 |
| BKLN | -0.015 | 0.14 | -0.02 | 0.18 | 0.07 | -0.02 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.01 | 0.04 | -0.01 | -0.04 | 0.07 | -0.00 |
| XLU | -0.013 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 0.52 | -0.23 | 0.05 | 0.03 | -0.00 | -0.01 | -0.05 | 0.14 | -0.11 | 0.16 | 0.64 | -0.29 | 0.06 |
| KRE | -0.012 | 0.65 | -0.05 | 0.82 | 0.39 | -0.04 | -0.05 | -0.01 | -0.11 | -0.10 | 0.14 | 0.96 | 0.10 | 0.35 | -0.24 | -0.03 |
| PPA | +0.011 | 0.99 | 0.21 | -0.14 | -0.10 | 0.13 | -0.01 | -0.01 | -0.00 | -0.01 | 0.87 | -0.01 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 | -0.03 |
| EUAD | +0.011 | 1.30 | 0.25 | 1.46 | -0.94 | 0.20 | -0.08 | 0.01 | -0.06 | 0.01 | 0.68 | -0.06 | -0.17 | 0.06 | -0.24 | 0.38 |
| XLRE | -0.009 | 0.35 | 0.50 | 0.86 | -0.13 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.03 | -0.14 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 1.00 | -0.01 | -0.03 |
| XLV | -0.009 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 0.52 | 0.15 | 0.06 | -0.07 | 0.02 | -0.21 | 0.08 | 0.08 | -0.01 | 0.04 | 0.16 | -0.56 | -0.04 |
| GDXJ | +0.008 | 2.27 | 0.38 | 1.92 | -3.94 | 1.36 | -0.14 | 0.04 | 0.04 | -0.19 | -0.07 | -0.04 | -0.03 | 0.19 | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| GLD | +0.008 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 0.97 | -2.10 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| MCHI | +0.008 | 0.81 | -0.02 | 0.86 | -0.35 | 0.15 | -0.01 | 0.02 | -0.02 | 0.85 | 0.02 | -0.06 | -0.03 | 0.01 | -0.02 | 0.16 |
| SMH | +0.006 | 2.27 | -0.30 | 0.48 | 0.14 | 0.12 | -0.00 | -0.05 | 0.79 | 0.03 | -0.03 | -0.10 | -0.03 | -0.06 | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| FXI | +0.006 | 0.67 | 0.06 | 1.14 | -0.39 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.03 | -0.05 | 1.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| EWC | -0.006 | 0.74 | 0.19 | 0.66 | -0.86 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.01 | -0.06 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| AIQ | +0.006 | 1.87 | -0.14 | 0.05 | -0.16 | 0.07 | -0.00 | 0.05 | 0.27 | 0.03 | -0.06 | -0.13 | -0.08 | -0.27 | 0.80 | 0.41 |
| SOXX | +0.006 | 2.48 | -0.39 | 0.44 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.00 | -0.07 | 1.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 |
| EWT | +0.005 | 1.82 | 0.11 | 0.11 | -0.36 | 0.04 | -0.06 | -0.03 | 0.40 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.22 | 0.14 | -0.05 | 0.11 | 1.15 |
| XLE | -0.005 | -0.55 | -0.43 | 1.18 | -0.01 | 0.07 | 0.24 | 0.03 | -0.03 | 0.05 | -0.04 | 0.17 | 1.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 |
| XLB | +0.004 | 0.70 | 0.35 | 0.07 | -0.29 | 0.23 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.07 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.23 | 0.30 | -0.38 | 0.03 |
| KBE | -0.004 | 0.68 | -0.02 | 0.66 | 0.36 | -0.04 | -0.04 | -0.00 | -0.12 | -0.09 | 0.14 | 0.99 | 0.08 | 0.29 | -0.21 | -0.05 |
| CORN | +0.004 | -0.19 | 0.01 | -0.38 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.00 | -0.03 | -0.20 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.01 | -0.04 | -0.10 | 0.15 |
| XLK | +0.004 | 1.70 | -0.30 | -0.34 | -0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.35 | -0.06 | -0.12 | -0.14 | -0.09 | -0.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| INDA | +0.003 | 0.81 | 0.31 | 0.52 | -0.18 | -0.04 | -0.12 | -0.00 | -0.06 | 0.12 | -0.03 | 0.14 | -0.06 | 0.08 | -0.07 | 0.45 |
| DTCR | +0.003 | 1.42 | 0.24 | 1.02 | -0.36 | 0.12 | -0.00 | 0.01 | 0.38 | 0.12 | 0.11 | -0.13 | 0.03 | 0.45 | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| EWG | +0.003 | 1.06 | 0.46 | 1.54 | -0.83 | 0.02 | -0.06 | 0.00 | -0.03 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.08 | -0.10 | 0.32 |
| KWEB | +0.002 | 1.02 | -0.04 | 0.93 | -0.33 | 0.11 | -0.05 | 0.02 | -0.10 | 1.20 | 0.09 | -0.16 | -0.04 | -0.11 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| XPH | -0.001 | 0.81 | 0.51 | 1.51 | -0.56 | 0.04 | -0.09 | 0.02 | -0.02 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.17 | -0.09 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| IAU | +0.001 | 0.85 | 0.20 | 0.97 | -2.10 | 0.99 | -0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 | 0.00 | -0.00 | -0.01 |
| EEM | -0.001 | 1.51 | 0.24 | 1.45 | -0.58 | 0.15 | -0.07 | -0.01 | 0.32 | 0.21 | 0.03 | -0.09 | 0.06 | -0.02 | 0.02 | 1.00 |
| QQQ | +0.000 | 1.40 | -0.12 | -0.13 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.19 | -0.05 | -0.09 | -0.17 | -0.09 | -0.13 | 0.22 | 0.04 |
| EWU | +0.000 | 0.77 | 0.30 | 1.48 | -0.80 | 0.07 | -0.01 | 0.02 | -0.08 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.24 | -0.32 | 0.23 |
| EWY | +0.000 | 2.87 | 0.72 | 3.40 | -1.23 | 0.29 | -0.09 | -0.02 | 0.95 | -0.06 | 0.21 | -0.34 | 0.31 | -0.15 | 0.48 | 2.33 |
| PICK | +0.000 | 1.62 | 0.24 | 1.89 | -1.75 | 0.50 | -0.05 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.21 | 0.03 | -0.01 | 0.47 |
| VNQ | +0.000 | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.99 | -0.10 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.03 | -0.14 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 1.00 | -0.00 | -0.00 |
| WEAT | +0.000 | -0.32 | 0.23 | -0.04 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.15 | -0.07 | -0.07 | -0.12 | 0.10 | 0.01 | -0.05 | -0.11 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| XLP | +0.000 | 0.02 | 0.46 | 0.75 | -0.01 | 0.01 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.20 | 0.10 | 0.06 | -0.15 | 0.17 | 0.36 | -0.65 | -0.01 |
β = the ETF's sensitivity to each (orthogonalised) factor (green +/red −, shaded by magnitude); net weight + = book net long the ETF, − = net short. Book exposure = Σ net weight × β.
P&L leaderboard by ETF
Multiple trades on the same ETF are summed, so this ranks tickers — not individual trades. Realized = closed positions; unrealized = still held, marked to the latest close and therefore still moving.
Realized
Top 5 gainers
GDXJ 1 trades+$545
AMLP 1 trades+$376
KBE 1 trades+$360
EUAD 1 trades+$327
KRE 1 trades+$216
Top 5 losers
VTI 3 trades−$429
EWG 2 trades−$419
FXI 2 trades−$378
WEAT 2 trades−$344
IWM 1 trades−$302
Structure diagnostics (incl. open, funded basis)
Long/short books and entry-confidence buckets (all trades incl. open MTM) — which side loses money, and whether confidence is trustworthy.
+$1,925
Long book · 43 trades · win% (incl. open MTM) 42%
+$716
Short book · 28 trades · win% (incl. open MTM) 54%
Entry-confidence buckets
| Bucket | N | Win rate | Avg P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.60–0.64 | 30 | 53% | +0.72% |
| 0.65–0.69 | 24 | 50% | +1.80% |
| 0.70+ | 17 | 29% | +0.91% |
Strategy rules (v2)
Signal source = consolidated ETF verdict (every slot the reasoning layer synthesises all active narrative opportunities for an ETF into one direction + confidence). Max 1 position per ETF.
Capital / sizing
- $100,000 initial (v2 walk-forward starts 2026-06-01)
- $5,000 fixed nominal per position (NOT 5% of equity)
- Max 20 simultaneous positions ($100k / $5k)
- Signal source: the daily consolidated ETF verdict's confidence
↗ Entry rule (ALL of)
- direction ∈ {lean_positive, lean_negative}
- confidence ≥ 0.60 + persistence (≥2 same-side verdict-days in 5d window, no opposite day)
- not in active blacklist
- ETF has no open position
- Capacity available (incumbents priority; contested slots ranked by persistence days, NOT confidence — 2026-07-09, conf measured anti-predictive)
↘ Exit triggers (any-fires)
- 1. unrealized PnL ≤ −30% → close + add to blacklist (persistent, manual unblock)
- 2. Direction flip: ≥3 opposite verdict-days in 5d window (2→3, 2026-07-09) → close + 1-slot cooldown
- 3. Direction cleared: NO same-side lean in window (any confidence counts as support — 2026-07-09 fix) → close
- 4. Min hold 14 days (7→14, 2026-07-09; hold-forever peaks median ~17d): only the stop-loss can close earlier
- 5. Held ≥ 90 days → close
Per-trade Alpha computed against each ETF's natural peer benchmark (SPY default / EFA DM country / EEM EM country / AGG bonds) — see Alpha vs BM column in the trade table. Portfolio-level Alpha vs SPY kept for the marketing-card view.
Equity curve
Three lines: Portfolio = the $100k account's actual NAV (idle cash included); Benchmark = buy-and-hold over the same span; Deployed return = return on invested money only (P&L ÷ invested cost), rescaled to $100k notional. Because its denominator is invested capital only it is amplified vs the portfolio: above it when winning, below when losing — the gap is idle-cash dilution.
Drawdown curve (underwater)
How far the current portfolio is below its all-time high. 0% = at a new high.
Trade-level detail
Win rates and breakdowns below count closed trades only; open positions are marked-to-market and excluded.(closed 58 · open 18)
+$176
Avg win
−$118
Avg loss
+$545
Best trade
−$302
Worst trade
+0.37%
Long win rate · n=38
+0.40%
Short win rate · n=20
Exit reason mix
direction_clear: 32 flip: 26 open: 13Confidence calibration + breakdowns
Win rates and breakdowns below count closed trades only; open positions are marked-to-market and excluded.(closed 58 · open 18)
By confidence bucket
| Bucket | N | Win rate | Avg P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60%–70% | 45 | 44% | +0.42% |
| 70%–80% | 13 | 15% | -1.50% |
By ETF
| ETF | N | Win rate | Avg P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI | 5 | 40% | +0.55% |
| EEM | 3 | 67% | -0.19% |
| KWEB | 3 | 67% | +1.61% |
| VTI | 3 | 0% | -2.20% |
| IAU | 2 | 0% | -2.79% |
| FXI | 2 | 0% | -4.97% |
| GLD | 2 | 50% | +0.57% |
| SMH | 2 | 0% | -4.84% |
Blacklisted ETFs (auto stop-loss −30%)
Hitting −30% unrealized auto-closes the position and lists the ETF here; it stays out until manually unblocked.
Empty — no ETFs have hit the 30% stop-loss.
All trades (no cherry-pick)
Every closed and open trade listed in full (nothing cherry-picked); open trades marked-to-market at the latest close. Alpha vs BM = excess return vs each ETF's natural peer benchmark. Newest first.
82 rows · newest first · 10/page
| ETF | Direction | Entry | Exit | Reason | Hold days | Size $ | Carry | P&L % | P&L $ | BM | BM return | Alpha vs BM | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWU | short | 2026-10-14 $46.91 | 2026-10-14 $46.91 | open | 0 | $0 | — | 0.00% | +$0 | — | — | — | 64% |
| XLK | long | 2026-10-12 $196.36 | 2026-10-14 $190.43 | open | 2 | $4,405 | — | -3.02% | −$133 | SPY | -1.09% | -1.93% | 66% |
| XPH | short | 2026-10-09 $64.65 | 2026-10-14 $62.07 | open | 5 | $3,674 | — | 3.99% | +$147 | SPY | +1.15% | +2.84% | 74% |
| VNQ | short | 2026-10-08 $89.35 | 2026-10-14 $90.35 | open | 6 | $0 | — | -1.12% | +$0 | — | — | — | 66% |
| XLF | short | 2026-10-07 $53.75 | 2026-10-14 $54.52 | open | 7 | $0 | — | -1.43% | +$0 | — | — | — | 63% |
| FXC | short | 2026-10-05 $68.51 | 2026-10-14 $68.63 | open | 9 | $15,000 | — | -0.18% | −$26 | SPY | +0.67% | -0.85% | 78% |
| BKLN | short | 2026-10-01 $20.46 | 2026-10-14 $20.43 | open | 13 | $15,000 | — | 0.15% | +$22 | SPY | -0.73% | +0.88% | 68% |
| IAU | short | 2026-09-24 $80.30 | 2026-10-14 $77.07 | open | 20 | $3,172 | — | 4.02% | +$128 | — | +0.00% | +4.02% | 65% |
| UUP | long | 2026-09-23 $28.65 | 2026-10-14 $29.12 | open | 21 | $11,065 | — | 1.64% | +$182 | — | +0.00% | +1.64% | 62% |
| MCHI | short | 2026-09-23 $53.17 | 2026-10-12 $52.15 | flip | 19 | $4,889 | — | 1.92% | +$94 | EEM | +2.30% | -0.39% | 63% |
| KWEB | short | 2026-09-23 $24.85 | 2026-10-08 $24.02 | direction_clear | 15 | $3,326 | — | 3.34% | +$111 | FXI | +2.65% | +0.69% | 62% |
| CORN | long | 2026-09-23 $19.76 | 2026-10-07 $19.05 | direction_clear | 14 | $3,774 | — | -3.59% | −$136 | DBA | -0.21% | -3.38% | 62% |
| FXY | long | 2026-09-21 $58.20 | 2026-10-09 $57.90 | direction_clear | 18 | $7,522 | — | -0.52% | −$39 | SPY | +0.66% | -1.17% | 70% |
| XLF | long | 2026-09-21 $55.90 | 2026-10-05 $53.88 | flip | 14 | $6,413 | — | -3.61% | −$232 | SPY | +0.17% | -3.79% | 70% |
| IYR | short | 2026-09-17 $98.94 | 2026-10-14 $95.93 | open | 27 | $2,791 | — | 3.04% | +$85 | SPY | -1.17% | +4.21% | 68% |
| XLRE | short | 2026-09-17 $42.94 | 2026-10-14 $41.49 | open | 27 | $0 | -0.83% | 2.55% | +$0 | — | — | — | 64% |
| WEAT | long | 2026-09-17 $26.24 | 2026-10-01 $24.72 | direction_clear | 14 | $2,733 | — | -5.79% | −$158 | DBA | -1.02% | -4.77% | 66% |
| VTI | short | 2026-09-16 $371.26 | 2026-10-14 $376.88 | direction_clear | 28 | $7,691 | -0.26% | -1.77% | −$136 | SPY | -2.31% | +0.54% | 70% |
| GLD | long | 2026-09-08 $399.72 | 2026-09-23 $392.88 | direction_clear | 15 | $2,785 | — | -1.71% | −$48 | — | +0.00% | -1.71% | 64% |
| EWC | short | 2026-09-03 $62.47 | 2026-09-17 $60.41 | flip | 14 | $6,396 | — | 3.30% | +$211 | EFA | +2.01% | +1.29% | 66% |
| PICK | long | 2026-09-02 $64.88 | 2026-09-24 $60.80 | direction_clear | 22 | $0 | — | -6.29% | +$0 | — | — | — | 66% |
| EWT | long | 2026-08-31 $108.03 | 2026-10-14 $110.94 | open | 44 | $2,112 | — | 2.69% | +$57 | EEM | -3.92% | +6.62% | 68% |
| IAU | long | 2026-08-31 $83.71 | 2026-09-17 $81.69 | flip | 17 | $3,025 | — | -2.41% | −$73 | — | +0.00% | -2.41% | 66% |
| FXC | short | 2026-08-31 $70.62 | 2026-09-16 $69.81 | direction_clear | 16 | $15,000 | -0.01% | 1.14% | +$171 | SPY | +1.69% | -0.56% | 62% |
| EWG | long | 2026-08-27 $44.58 | 2026-09-21 $42.60 | direction_clear | 25 | $4,195 | — | -4.44% | −$186 | EFA | -1.75% | -2.69% | 60% |
| QQQ | long | 2026-08-27 $721.11 | 2026-09-17 $716.92 | flip | 21 | $3,608 | — | -0.58% | −$21 | SPY | -1.10% | +0.52% | 66% |
| EEM | long | 2026-08-26 $67.17 | 2026-09-22 $69.10 | direction_clear | 27 | $3,041 | — | 2.87% | +$87 | SPY | +1.20% | +1.67% | 63% |
| FXI | long | 2026-08-24 $35.55 | 2026-09-23 $34.36 | direction_clear | 30 | $4,447 | — | -3.35% | −$149 | EEM | +2.42% | -5.77% | 65% |
| WEAT | short | 2026-08-20 $25.38 | 2026-09-03 $27.12 | direction_clear | 14 | $2,711 | — | -6.86% | −$186 | DBA | -2.50% | -4.35% | 70% |
| VTI | long | 2026-08-18 $379.04 | 2026-09-08 $377.60 | direction_clear | 21 | $6,125 | — | -0.38% | −$23 | SPY | -0.19% | -0.19% | 75% |
| KRE | short | 2026-08-17 $77.39 | 2026-10-14 $68.54 | open | 58 | $4,482 | -0.53% | 10.90% | +$489 | XLF | +4.97% | +5.93% | 70% |
| KBE | short | 2026-08-17 $71.06 | 2026-10-14 $62.50 | open | 58 | $4,664 | -0.53% | 11.52% | +$537 | XLF | +4.97% | +6.55% | 65% |
| MCHI | long | 2026-08-14 $54.63 | 2026-09-21 $54.00 | flip | 38 | $4,123 | — | -1.15% | −$48 | EEM | +3.33% | -4.49% | 66% |
| XLB | long | 2026-08-13 $52.31 | 2026-08-27 $53.23 | direction_clear | 14 | $4,025 | — | 1.76% | +$71 | SPY | -0.87% | +2.63% | 65% |
| KWEB | long | 2026-08-11 $28.09 | 2026-08-26 $26.28 | direction_clear | 15 | $2,812 | — | -6.44% | −$181 | FXI | -0.31% | -6.14% | 68% |
| IWM | short | 2026-08-10 $299.98 | 2026-10-14 $271.37 | open | 65 | $5,372 | -0.25% | 9.29% | +$499 | SPY | +0.20% | +9.09% | 68% |
| FXY | long | 2026-08-10 $57.62 | 2026-08-27 $57.50 | direction_clear | 17 | $6,609 | — | -0.21% | −$14 | SPY | -0.25% | +0.04% | 62% |
| XLP | long | 2026-08-07 $85.12 | 2026-09-02 $85.53 | direction_clear | 26 | $0 | — | 0.48% | +$0 | — | — | — | 62% |
| XOP | long | 2026-08-05 $165.19 | 2026-10-14 $197.84 | open | 70 | $2,415 | +0.46% | 20.22% | +$488 | XLE | +18.67% | +1.55% | 72% |
| SMH | long | 2026-08-05 $569.70 | 2026-08-31 $556.63 | direction_clear | 26 | $1,750 | — | -2.29% | −$40 | SOXX | -3.70% | +1.41% | 63% |
| XLE | long | 2026-08-03 $58.79 | 2026-10-14 $67.63 | open | 72 | $0 | +0.65% | 15.68% | +$0 | — | — | — | 74% |
| VDE | long | 2026-07-28 $162.02 | 2026-10-14 $188.39 | open | 78 | $3,244 | +0.65% | 16.93% | +$549 | SPY | +4.13% | +12.79% | 65% |
| MCHI | long | 2026-07-27 $54.26 | 2026-08-10 $56.93 | flip | 14 | $3,610 | — | 4.92% | +$178 | EEM | +2.44% | +2.48% | 65% |
| GDXJ | long | 2026-07-23 $97.60 | 2026-09-22 $127.97 | direction_clear | 61 | $1,750 | — | 31.12% | +$545 | SPY | +5.02% | +26.09% | 66% |
| XLV | short | 2026-07-22 $159.43 | 2026-08-20 $172.39 | direction_clear | 29 | $3,683 | — | -8.13% | −$299 | SPY | -2.03% | -6.10% | 63% |
| EEM | short | 2026-07-22 $64.99 | 2026-08-17 $67.32 | flip | 26 | $2,169 | — | -3.59% | −$78 | SPY | -3.38% | -0.21% | 62% |
| KWEB | long | 2026-07-22 $26.44 | 2026-08-05 $28.54 | direction_clear | 14 | $2,640 | — | 7.94% | +$210 | FXI | +4.79% | +3.15% | 78% |
| EWG | short | 2026-07-22 $41.31 | 2026-08-05 $43.64 | flip | 14 | $4,134 | — | -5.64% | −$233 | EFA | -3.05% | -2.59% | 68% |
| QQQ | short | 2026-07-21 $708.97 | 2026-08-14 $731.07 | direction_clear | 24 | $2,632 | — | -3.12% | −$82 | SPY | -3.75% | +0.63% | 66% |
| INDA | long | 2026-07-20 $48.55 | 2026-08-03 $50.16 | flip | 14 | $3,008 | — | 3.32% | +$100 | EEM | +1.20% | +2.12% | 62% |
| FXY | short | 2026-07-14 $56.57 | 2026-08-07 $58.24 | flip | 24 | $0 | — | -2.95% | +$0 | — | — | — | 64% |
| VNQ | short | 2026-07-14 $97.57 | 2026-07-28 $100.95 | flip | 14 | $0 | — | -3.46% | +$0 | — | — | — | 63% |
| PPA | long | 2026-07-13 $171.39 | 2026-08-31 $167.39 | direction_clear | 49 | $2,937 | — | -2.33% | −$69 | SPY | +2.39% | -4.72% | 70% |
| XLRE | short | 2026-07-13 $44.70 | 2026-08-10 $44.40 | flip | 28 | $4,071 | — | 0.67% | +$27 | SPY | -3.18% | +3.86% | 62% |
| MCHI | short | 2026-07-08 $52.85 | 2026-07-22 $53.57 | flip | 14 | $3,457 | — | -1.36% | −$47 | EEM | +1.87% | -3.23% | 74% |
| FXI | short | 2026-07-07 $32.49 | 2026-07-21 $34.63 | flip | 14 | $3,473 | — | -6.59% | −$229 | EEM | +0.58% | -7.16% | 70% |
| XLU | short | 2026-07-06 $45.30 | 2026-08-18 $44.02 | flip | 43 | $3,958 | — | 2.83% | +$112 | SPY | -2.15% | +4.98% | 70% |
| AMLP | long | 2026-07-02 $52.06 | 2026-08-24 $54.92 | direction_clear | 53 | $5,037 | +1.98% | 7.47% | +$376 | XLE | +18.58% | -11.11% | 60% |
| SMH | long | 2026-07-02 $592.29 | 2026-07-27 $548.55 | flip | 25 | $1,750 | — | -7.38% | −$129 | SOXX | -8.84% | +1.46% | 67% |
| EWY | long | 2026-06-30 $202.01 | 2026-07-14 $176.98 | flip | 14 | $0 | — | -12.39% | +$0 | — | — | — | 60% |
| GLD | long | 2026-06-29 $368.58 | 2026-07-22 $379.12 | direction_clear | 23 | $2,592 | — | 2.86% | +$74 | — | +0.00% | +2.86% | 64% |
| DTCR | long | 2026-06-25 $31.07 | 2026-07-13 $28.39 | direction_clear | 18 | $2,345 | +0.36% | -8.26% | −$194 | SPY | +2.03% | -10.29% | 62% |
| XLK | long | 2026-06-24 $183.05 | 2026-07-13 $181.28 | direction_clear | 19 | $1,947 | — | -0.97% | −$19 | SPY | +2.17% | -3.14% | 75% |
| QQQ | long | 2026-06-24 $710.62 | 2026-07-08 $711.44 | flip | 14 | $0 | — | 0.12% | +$0 | — | — | — | 72% |
| MCHI | long | 2026-06-22 $52.86 | 2026-07-06 $52.02 | flip | 14 | $3,388 | — | -1.59% | −$54 | EEM | -5.11% | +3.52% | 63% |
| XLF | long | 2026-06-18 $53.57 | 2026-07-28 $57.60 | flip | 40 | $3,601 | +0.35% | 7.87% | +$283 | SPY | -0.79% | +8.66% | 63% |
| XOP | long | 2026-06-15 $158.36 | 2026-07-06 $153.96 | direction_clear | 21 | $1,897 | +0.47% | -2.31% | −$44 | XLE | -3.66% | +1.36% | 62% |
| VDE | long | 2026-06-15 $156.76 | 2026-06-30 $150.91 | direction_clear | 15 | $2,751 | +0.66% | -3.07% | −$85 | SPY | -0.82% | -2.26% | 76% |
| VTI | short | 2026-06-12 $366.36 | 2026-08-10 $381.63 | flip | 59 | $6,060 | -0.28% | -4.45% | −$270 | SPY | -4.47% | +0.02% | 60% |
| EEM | short | 2026-06-12 $67.88 | 2026-06-29 $67.43 | direction_clear | 17 | $2,194 | -0.52% | 0.15% | +$3 | SPY | -0.16% | +0.30% | 61% |
| EUAD | long | 2026-06-11 $41.45 | 2026-08-17 $47.84 | direction_clear | 67 | $2,120 | — | 15.42% | +$327 | ITA | +6.49% | +8.92% | 60% |
| EWT | short | 2026-06-11 $102.45 | 2026-06-25 $104.91 | flip | 14 | $1,841 | — | -2.40% | −$44 | EEM | -1.20% | -1.20% | 60% |
| XLE | short | 2026-06-09 $57.39 | 2026-07-02 $53.22 | flip | 23 | $2,827 | -0.67% | 6.60% | +$186 | SPY | -1.31% | +7.90% | 60% |
| UUP | long | 2026-06-08 $28.03 | 2026-08-13 $28.18 | flip | 66 | $14,914 | — | 0.54% | +$80 | — | +0.00% | +0.54% | 64% |
| KBE | long | 2026-06-08 $64.21 | 2026-08-11 $70.51 | flip | 64 | $3,477 | +0.55% | 10.36% | +$360 | XLF | +11.58% | -1.22% | 62% |
| AIQ | long | 2026-06-08 $64.44 | 2026-07-20 $59.14 | direction_clear | 42 | $1,963 | +0.00% | -8.22% | −$161 | QQQ | -2.68% | -5.54% | 60% |
| KRE | long | 2026-06-08 $70.36 | 2026-07-14 $75.00 | flip | 36 | $3,008 | +0.59% | 7.19% | +$216 | XLF | +8.46% | -1.27% | 60% |
| IAU | long | 2026-06-08 $81.38 | 2026-06-22 $78.80 | direction_clear | 14 | $1,987 | — | -3.17% | −$63 | — | +0.00% | -3.17% | 65% |
| ITA | long | 2026-06-05 $229.45 | 2026-08-31 $228.35 | direction_clear | 87 | $3,069 | +0.07% | -0.41% | −$13 | SPY | +4.26% | -4.67% | 60% |
| IYR | short | 2026-06-05 $102.54 | 2026-07-22 $104.95 | flip | 47 | $6,033 | -0.50% | -2.85% | −$172 | SPY | -1.60% | -1.25% | 73% |
| SOXX | long | 2026-06-05 $539.77 | 2026-07-22 $555.52 | flip | 47 | $1,750 | +0.05% | 2.97% | +$52 | QQQ | +0.16% | +2.81% | 66% |
| IWM | short | 2026-06-05 $281.65 | 2026-07-06 $298.90 | flip | 31 | $4,748 | -0.25% | -6.37% | −$302 | SPY | -2.12% | -4.25% | 65% |
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Exit-reason legend:
stop_loss — Stop-loss — unrealised loss hit −30%; force-closed AND the ETF is blacklisted until manually unblocked. The only exit that can fire inside the 14-day minimum hold
flip — Direction flip — closed only when the opposite-side verdict PERSISTED (≥3 opposite-lean days with conf ≥0.45 within a 5-day window), not a single flipped verdict. Only checked after the 14-day minimum hold
direction_clear — Direction cleared — closed only when same-side leans fade to zero across the 5-day window (went neutral/mixed and stayed); a single neutral day does NOT close it. Only checked after the 14-day minimum hold
conf_low — Confidence exit (RETIRED) — legacy rule: closed when confidence fell below 0.45. Since 2026-07-09 exits are persistence-based; only historical rows may still show this reason
max_hold — Max hold — force-closed after 90 days
open — Still open — the exit column shows mark-to-market at the current price, not a real exit
Re-entry: after a close (except stop_loss blacklist), the same ETF re-enters as a NEW trade once its verdict re-passes the entry gate (conf ≥0.6 with direction, that direction persisting ≥2 days within a 5-day window — not a single slot) — a new row is appended; closed rows are never rewritten. A chase gate also applies: entry is skipped when the ETF has already moved more than 3.0% in the signal's direction over the 10 trading days before the signal.
ℹ️ How buy / sell signals are emitted
Pipeline: News → event → narrative (arc) → the reasoning layer reasons per-ETF and assigns a direction → hard gates → opportunity / daily verdict. Direction is inferred by the reasoner, not derived from price moves (a blueprint's direction is only a prior).
Buy (long): All of: ① an active narrative routes to this ETF (blueprint tag match) ② the reasoner calls direction = long ③ the direction has non-price evidence (policy / positioning / flows / macro — never just 'it's rising') ④ not blocked by the priced-in gate ⑤ clears the red line (probe evidence exists). Medium-term positions also need support confirmation and the ≥14-day hold horizon.
Sell (short): Fully symmetric to buy, with direction = short. Extra: low-confidence shorts are damped by the verdict layer (calibration shows low-conviction shorts are the worst cohort); once a 'ceasefire'-type bearish catalyst is realised, a veto gate blocks continuing to short.
Hard gates (any failure = no signal): blueprint tag · non-price grounding · priced-in · red line (no data → no conclusion) · region ISO match · confidence calibration. Buy and sell pass the same gates — only the direction differs.
Not triggers (don't confuse): regime (Strong / at-high / off-low — observation only) · single-day reads · pure price momentum · inverse-vol sizing (sets position size only; it neither creates nor changes direction).
Note: this page replays those signals under fixed / inverse-vol sizing — it measures the signal-plus-sizing combination, and does not alter the signal itself.
Methodology
(1) $100,000 simulated portfolio, walk-forward, fills at the signal day's close; (2) no fees, slippage or taxes, except the rates-futures portfolio; (3) benchmarks are total-return (dividends included); (4) simulated results are not live trading and do not predict future performance.