ETF RadarWWW.THEETFRADAR.COM 中文
US 10Y5.19%-8bp 5dUS 2Y4.82%+3bp 5d2s10s+37bpVIX17.62+2.21HY OAS3.16%+13bp 5dUSD Broad121.60+0.223M T-Bill4.09%+4bp 5dCRISIS SCORE16.0REGIMEMixed
ETF Radar
Macro news → ETF direction calls · updated every trading day

Every day we sift a flood of headlines for the macro trends that are actually forming

Headlines about the same event are grouped into one narrative, checked against fund flows, futures positioning and macro data, then turned into a direction call on a specific ETF. Calls without enough evidence are not published.

ETFs covered98
Bullish / Bearish16 / 43
Narratives tracked31
See today’s signals →
Signal radar · today's direction calls ● bull  ● bear

Catch the upside. Quantify the risk

Credit spreads, volatility, rates and funding stress are tracked daily to classify the risk regime and check for early signs of a systemic crisis. ETFs trading near recent highs carry a separate chase-risk flag.

Systemic score16.0 /100
RegimeMixed
Open the risk gauges →
Systemic crisis score · 0 = no signs2026-10-15
0306010016.0/ 100calmcrisis
Score comes from: HY widening (20d)

Entries and exits get equal attention, and every call can be reviewed

Four simulated portfolios are marked daily against benchmarks. Exits follow stated rules: the evidence flips, the call turns neutral, the stop is hit, or the holding limit is reached. Every past call can be looked up.

Avg. hold26.7 d
Win rate44.1%
Max drawdown-3.7%
Open the scorecard →
Life of a position · exit rulesdays
min holdEvidence flips → exitCall turns neutral → exitLoss hits 30% → stop (any time)014306090Entryavg hold 26.7dmax 90d
Market state
Markets are in transition
Signals point in different directions
Rates risingYes
Inflation expectations upNo
Credit spreads wideningYes
Bonds as a havenNo
VIX curve invertedNo
Funding stressNo
Systemic crisisNo
Crisis score16.0 /100
Today’s briefing

What the market is trading today

All articles →
Daily briefing · Oct 15

Rising inflation is pressuring valuations, AI revenue remains strong

~7 min read

US equities declined on Wednesday, with SPY down 1.08% and QQQ down 1.97%, primarily due to the September CPI rising to 3.7% year-over-year (driven by fuel, Brent around $107) which pushed up interest rates (10-year at about 5.19%). High valuation tech stocks and precious metals were under pressure; however, AI revenue remained strong, with Anthropic reporting a 45% increase in September to $1.68 billion, indicating…

▼SPY▲SOXX▼SLV
Read the briefing →
Risk Weekly · 10-11

Idiosyncratic risks, interest rates and the US dollar have led to valuation compression

Conclusion: Currently this does not constitute a systemic crisis; market pressure mainly stems from rising nominal interest rates and a stronger dolla…

Rates Weekly · 10-11

U.S. short- and medium-term interest rates rise; long-end risks are hard to predict

Conclusion: U.S. short- and mid-term yields are biased toward continuing to rise over the next three weeks; the 10-year moves in the same direction bu…

Special Report · 10-09

Seven months into the oil shock, a stagflation risk hidden by the AI rally

The Fed will put inflation ahead of jobs, but this inflation comes from the oil supply. Gasoline demand barely responds to price, so rate hikes can cu…

Rates Weekly · 10-04

Selloff in the long-end bond market exacerbates elevated U.S. interest rates and tail risk.

Conclusion: Global long-end bond selling has deepened, U.S. yields are at extreme highs in recent years, momentum at the short- and mid-ends slightly…

Today’s signals

Today’s direction calls

1–3 month horizon · updated Oct 15

▲ Bullish7

UUPAT HIGHNet inflows of $58M since Sep 28 and rising US Treasury yields over 20 days support the USDEWZBlack Sea attacks are blocking grain exports, benefiting Brazil and Latin America as alternative suppliersXLEAT HIGHNear-month vs 12-month WTI backwardation ~14–16% and net creations show tight nearby supplyXOPAT HIGHNear‑month WTI is about 14–15% backwardated vs 12 months with near‑month fund inflows signaling tight prompt supplyXLKDRAM spot recovery and the ETF's real inflows since early October

▼ Bearish20

IEFAT HIGH10-year futures speculators are extremely net short and the term premium remains elevatedFXYAT HIGHSpeculative futures net short ~25,043 contracts, and USD/JPY 10-year spread ~2.27ppIWMRising rates and Treasury volatility raise discount rates, weighing on small caps with net short futuresKREBoth short and long Treasury yields rose and high-yield spreads widened, squeezing regional banks' NIM and valuationsSLVReal 10y near 2.91% and futures speculative net long fell to 7,528, raising silver holding cost

“At high” = price is near its 20-day high; entries deserve extra caution. All 41 core ETFs → · Narratives tracked →

Rates & risk

Treasury yields sit near one-year highs, and bonds are not hedging

Rates section →
US 2Y
4.82%
+3bp 5d
US 5Y
5.00%
-3bp 5d
US 10Y
5.19%
-8bp 5d
US 30Y
5.52%
-12bp 5d
US Treasury curve · now vs 60 days ago as of 10-14
4.04.55.05.56.02Y5Y10Y30Y4.825.005.195.5260d ago
TenorYield call vs prior
🇺🇸 US 2-yearYield ↓ · price ↑unchanged
🇺🇸 US 5-yearYield ↓ · price ↑unchanged
🇺🇸 US 10-yearYield ↑ · price ↓unchanged
🇺🇸 US 30-yearYield ↑ · price ↓flipped
🇨🇦 Canada 2-year low evidenceYield ↑ · price ↓unchanged
🇨🇦 Canada 10-year low evidenceYield ↑ · price ↓unchanged
🇨🇦 Canada 30-year low evidenceYield ↑ · price ↓flipped
Stress gauges · z-score vs 1-year mean
US 10Y 5.19%+2.42
US 2Y 4.82%+2.25
3M T-bill 4.09%+3.02
HY OAS 3.16%+1.66
IG OAS 0.83%+0.78
USD broad 121.60+1.64
10Y breakeven 2.35%+0.55
VIX 17.62-0.11

A z-score above +2 is extreme for the past year. Extreme today: US 10Y (+2.4), US 2Y (+2.2), 3M T-bill (+3.0); the rest are in their normal range.

Risk regime →
Public scorecard

Four simulated portfolios, settled daily

Simulated, not live money; before costs except the futures portfolio

$5,000 per position across stocks, bonds and commodities.

Return
+5.52%
SPY +1.96%
Sharpe
1.63
94 trading days
Max drawdown
-3.91%
peak to trough
Win rate
44.1%
68 closed · 18 open
Details →
Simulated portfolioSPY total return
-6%-4%-2%+0%+2%+4%+6%JunJulAugSepOct+5.5%+2.0%

Full performance, every trade and methodology →

Look-ahead

Data to watch next

Eastern Time
Fri Oct 16 · 05:00

Eurozone Core Inflation Rate YoY

Inflation ex food and energy shows how sticky prices are.

Consensus 2.5% · Prior 2.5%

Fri Oct 16 · 05:00

Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY

Inflation decides whether central banks can ease.

Consensus 3.8% · Prior 3.8%

Mon Oct 19 · 08:30

Canada Core Inflation Rate YoY

Inflation ex food and energy shows how sticky prices are.

Prior 2%

Wed Oct 21 · 02:00

UK Inflation Rate YoY

Inflation decides whether central banks can ease.

Prior 3.1%

Wed Oct 21 · 02:00

UK Core Inflation Rate YoY

Inflation ex food and energy shows how sticky prices are.

Prior 2.6%

Thu Oct 22 · 08:30

US Initial Jobless Claims

The fastest weekly read on the labor market.

Method

How a call is made

Full methodology →
01

Read the news

Multilingual financial news is gathered daily and grouped into narratives.

02

Check the evidence

Narratives are checked against flows, futures positioning, options and macro data, not price alone.

03

Ask if it is priced in

A sound thesis the price already reflects is not chased. Late entries are flagged.

04

Settle daily

Every call enters a simulated portfolio, is marked at the close against a benchmark, and stays on file.

Updated every trading-day morning

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